Author: Dan Tan
Date: March 4, 2012,8:24:51 PM
I can tell you how the vote will go:
1st to drop off: Singh
2nd to drop off: Ashton
3rd to drop off: Dewar
4th to drop off: Nash
5th to drop off: Topp
6th to drop off: Cullen
Last man standing: Mulcair
The first two drop-offs should be obvious to any rational person. Singh & Ashton are merely advocates, not actual leadership candidates.
Dewar is the most over-rated candidate in the race. The lack of French alone guarantees he won't be leader. His hype is mostly generated by those who live in the Ottawa bubble...locals, reporters, PR types. Even among Ontario NDP members, he's not that popular (I live here). Figures that his wildest dreams have everyone ranking him number 2. Problem is, that leaves a whole bunch of other number 1's who will see him eliminated pretty early on.
Nash & Topp are drawing from the same pool of supporters. Namely, self-perceived puritans & organized labour. They'll split that vote until they can't anymore...and then Topp will move on because he's slightly more charismatic than Nash. Unfortunately, Topp's charisma is not cross-generational...it's only appealing to an older audience. That's why he won't make it to the finals.
Nathan Cullen is way too under-rated in this race. Pundits are letting the "joint nominations" issue blind them to the other volatile factors propelling his candidacy:
- BC is the numerical heart of the party. To them, Nathan is not a one-issue hack...he's their golden-boy. I suspect the BC members are sanguine about the "joint-noms proposal", realizing it's more symbolic than practical.
- No one can guage the soft Lib/Green membership Nathan personally brought into the NDP. These folks would have joined with the sole intention of supporting ONLY Nathan. This could an insurgency reminiscent of David Orchard & Alison Redford.
Thomas Mulcair will win. While he & Cullen both share incredible charisma & intelligence, Mulcair will win on his command of French & the fact that he's not anchored to a controversial policy proposal. Rather than "anyone but Mulcair", I suspect the leadership race will end with "anything but joint nominations".