mysql update statement behaves differently based on whether a user variable exists

set @last='';
set @sort=NULL;
update conf_profile set sort=
    if(
        @last=(@last:=concat(org_id,',',profile_type_id,',',page,',',col)),
        (@sort:=@sort+1),
        (@sort:=0)
    )
order by org_id,profile_type_id,page,col,sort,id;

mysql> set @sort := NULL;
mysql> SELECT @sort; -- returns NULL
mysql> set @sort := @sort + 1;
mysql> SELECT @sort; -- returns NULL again
mysql> set @sort := 0;
mysql> set @sort := @sort + 1;
mysql> SELECT @sort; -- returns 1

set @last='';
-- set @sort=NULL;
update conf_profile set sort=
    if(
        @last!=(@last:=concat(org_id,',',profile_type_id,',',page,',',col)),
        (@sort:=0),
        (@sort:=@sort+1)
    )
order by org_id,profile_type_id,page,col,sort,id;