OPTIMAL STRATS FOR MAFIA IN VDLI

If blue is killed,

Nilla frickin cc gosh.

Keep it 1/3 in prs and 1/4 in blues/miller

If necessary, when you are told to out claim bp.

If you get BP lynched, then good.

You are stuck with 1 confirmed nilla, 1 orc, 1 stalker, and 3 blues.

Always get orc so you can get a clear. There is 1/4 chance in them getting stalker. Clear leads on confirmed nilla, and now you kill them for 3-way no clear, which is what you want.

However, if nilla is lynched in BP ccs, then that means you go for the BP. That means there is 6-way, 2 clears. This means that only 1/4 of time stalker will be lynched. DO NOT USE META WITH THE IF THIS PERSON IS TOWN LYNCH ME!!! Say a regular blue gets lynched, then it is gonna have clears either way. Sack BP, and lead on other blue. It is 50/50 from there.

If miller killed

Look above for IF BLUE KILLED

If orc killed

DO NOT CC IF NILLA, STALKER, OR BP IS REVEALED. But if they aren't revealed, then we can cc BP. This means 1/2 chance in BPs and 1/4 chance in blues because there is one clear. Clear normally lynches in ccs. If BP is lynched, kill clear for 5 way-no clear. If nilla is lynched, then you get BP, and they will probably nl to force 3 way. That means that meteor is on town, but it is not optimal to nk. GET ONE OF THE DANG CLEARS!!! Then we are stuck with 5 way, 1 clear, where you only have a 1/4 chance of being lynched. [Insert mishammer here] [Insert other clear being killed here], you still have good odds.

Say that orc is on stalker or nilla or BP, do not cc. If they are on BP, then they are only clear. It would be 2/6 in blues, but it is okay, as there is miller in there to throw town off. Say they hammer stalker [worst possible outcome in this situation], Hit BP, they nl cuz 4 way, but meteor is on town, so keep nk up until they are forced to lynch. There would be 5 blue claims with 1 or 2 maf. What are odds of BP being 2/2? If only 1 maf left and they hammer right, GG. If one maf left and they mishammer, then get BP for 4 way-no clears. If 2 maf left and they hammer right, get BP for 4 way-no clears. If 2 maf left and they hammer wrong, MYLO.
If orc is killed while being on maf, then it is free lynch, one clear probably, and it is 1/5 hiding in towns for other maf. Hit BP, where meteor is on town, and either way it goes into 4 way no clear. BP has 20% chance hammering other maf. If they hammer right, GG. If they hammer wrong, then hit BP again for 4 way, no clear, meteor on town.
If BP is hit n1, NILLA CC BP GOSH. Most likely orc will out, and so they will decide to nl for the 3 way. Well, meteor was on town, so keep nling, so you can keep stalking. Either way, they are forced to lynch with BP hit. They lynch in ccs. Have the worst possible outcome and nilla is lynched, hit BP again. Orc will still have 2 mislynches, as it is not optimal to hit orc n3 in 3-way because there is chance of revealing maf. Say however BP is lynched, sack orc, where, playing optimally, there is 1/5 chance of finding stalker in blues. Lynch the nilla. Then it is 4 way no clears.

This game isn't really hard to win as maf. Also, because of these strats, it makes stalker useless. After doing the probability testing, there is approximately a 2/5.5 chance in town winning by playing optimally.