18+ One of the insiders from the special services of the Russian Federation, I will publish without edits and censorship, because this is hell: "Just to be honest: I almost did not sleep all these days, almost all the time at work, in my head slightly floating, as in a fog. And from overwork, sometimes I catch a state as if it's all not real.‎
‎To be honest, Pandora's box is open - by the summer there will be a real horror of a global scale - global famine is inevitable (Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain in the world, this year the harvest will be smaller, and logistical problems will bring the catastrophe to a peak point).‎
‎I can't tell you what motivated the people at the top when deciding on the operation, but now we (the Service) are methodically lowering all the dogs. We're being scolded for analytics - that's very much in my profile, so I'll explain what's wrong.‎
‎Recently, we have been increasingly pressed to adjust reports to the requirements of management - I once touched on this topic. All these political consultants, politicians and their retinue, influence teams - all this created chaos. Strong.‎
‎The most important thing is that no one knew that there would be such a war, it was hidden from everyone. And here's an example: You're asked (conditionally) to calculate the possibility of human rights protection in different conditions, including the attack on prisons with meteorites. You specify about meteorites, you are told - this is so, reinsurance for calculations, nothing like this will happen. You understand that the report will be only for show, but you need to write in a victorious style, so that there are no questions, like, why do you have so many problems, did you work badly. In general, a report is written that when a meteorite falls, we have everything to eliminate the consequences, we are great, everything is fine. And you concentrate on the tasks that are real - we already do not have enough strength. And then suddenly they really throw meteorites and expect that everything will be according to your analytics, which was written from the baldy. ‎
‎That's why we have total pis_ets - I don't even want to pick up another word. There is no protection from sanctions for the same reason: well, Nabiullina may well be sewn negligence (rather, to the switchmen from her team), but what are they guilty of? No one knew that there would be such a war, so no one was preparing for such sanctions. This is the flip side of secrecy: since no one was told, then who could calculate what no one told?‎
‎Kadyrov flies off the rails. Also, the conflict almost began with us: perhaps even the Ukrainians threw a disposition that it was we who handed over the routes of Kadyrov's special forces in the first days of the operation. They were covered there on the march in the most terrible way, they had not yet begun to fight, and they were simply being watched in some places. And off we went: it was the FSB that leaked the routes to the Ukrainians. I do not have such information, I will leave 1-2% for reliability (it is also impossible to exclude at all).‎
‎The blitz-krieg failed. It is simply impossible to fulfill the task now: if in the first 1-3 days Zelensky and representatives of the authorities were captured, all key buildings in Kiev were seized, the order to surrender would be read out - yes, the resistance would have subsided to the minimum values. Theoretically. But what's next? Even with this ideal option, there was an unsolvable problem: with whom to negotiate? If we demolish Zelensky, okay, who should we sign agreements with? If with Zelensky, then after his demolition by us, these papers are worthless. OpZh refused to cooperate: Medvedchuk is a coward, he ran away. There is a second leader there - Boyko, but he refuses to work with us - they will not even understand his own. They wanted to return Tsarev, so even our pro-Russian people turned against him against us. Yanukovych to return? And how? If we say that it is impossible to occupy, then any of our authorities there will be killed in 10 minutes, as soon as we leave. Occupy? And where do we get so many people? Commandants' offices, military police, counterintelligence, security - even with minimal local resistance, we need 500,000 or more people. Not counting the supply chain. And there is a rule that by blocking the quantity of poor quality of management, you only spoil everything. And this, I repeat, would be with the ideal option, which is not.‎
‎Now what? We cannot declare mobilization for two reasons:‎
‎1) Large-scale mobilization will undermine the situation inside the country: political, economic, social.‎
‎2) Our logistics are overstretched today. We will drive a much larger contingent, but what will we get? Ukraine is a hefty country in terms of territory. And now the level of hatred towards us is off the scale. Our roads simply will not pull in capacity such caravans of supplies - everything will stall. And we can't pull it out managerially because of chaos.‎
‎And these two reasons fall out at the same time, although even one is enough to break everything.‎
‎As for the losses: I don't know how many there are. No one knows. The first two days there was still control, now no one knows what is happening there. You can lose out of touch large units. They can be found, or they can dissolve due to falling under attack. And even commanders there may not know how much they have running around, how many died, how many were captured. The dead are definitely in the thousands. Maybe 10,000, maybe 5, maybe only 2. Even the headquarters don't know for sure. But it should be closer to 10. And we do not count the corps of the LDNR now - there is its own accounting.‎
‎Now even if you kill Zelensky, take him prisoner - nothing will change already. There is Chechnya in terms of the level of hatred towards us. And now even those who were loyal to us are against it. Because we were planning at the top, because we were told that there would be no such option, unless we were attacked. Because they explained that it is necessary to create the most reliable threat in order to peacefully agree on the right conditions. Because we initially prepared protests inside Ukraine against Zelensky. Not counting our direct entry. Invasions, to put it simply.‎
‎Further, civilian losses will go exponentially - and resistance to us will also only increase. They had already tried to enter the cities with infantry - out of twenty landing groups, only one had a conditional success. Remember the storming of Mosul - this is the rule, so all countries had, nothing new.‎
‎Keep under siege? According to the experience of military conflicts in the same Europe in recent decades (Serbia here is the largest testing ground for experience), cities can be under siege for years, and even function. Humanitarian convoys from Europe there are a matter of time. ‎
‎We have a conditional deadline until June. Conditional - because in June we have no economy left, nothing remains. By and large, next week there will be a turning point in one of the sides, simply because the situation cannot be in such an overstrain. There are no analysts - you can not calculate the chaos, here no one can say anything for sure. Act intuitively, and even on emotions - but this is not poker for you. Rates will rise, in the hope that suddenly some option will shoot. The trouble is that we, too, can now miscalculate and lose everything in one turn.‎
‎By and large, the country has no way out. That's just no option of a possible victory, and defeat - that's all, sailed at all. 100% repeated the beginning of the last century, when they decided to kick weak Japan and get a quick victory, then it turned out that with the army - trouble-trouble. then they started the war to the bitter end, then they began to take the Bolsheviks for "re-education" into the army - after all, they were marginal, uninteresting to anyone in the masses. And then the unknown Bolsheviks picked up anti-war slogans and this happened to them...‎
‎On the plus side: we did everything to prevent even a hint of a mass sending of "penalty takers" to the front line. Send there zeks and "socially unreliable", political (so that the water is not watered inside the country) - the morale of the army will simply go into the red. And the enemy is motivated, motivated monstrously. He knows how to fight, there are enough mid-level commanders there. The weapons are there. They have support. We will simply set a precedent for human loss in the world. That's it.‎
‎What we fear most: at the top, they act according to the rule of overlapping the old problem with a new problem. Largely for this reason, the Donbass of 2014 began - it was necessary to divert the attention of Westerners from the topic of the Russian spring in the Crimea, so the Donbass crisis seemed to be supposed to draw all attention to itself and become the subject of bargaining. But there were even bigger problems. Then they decided to push Erdogan to 4 pipes of south stream and entered Syria - this is after Soleimani gave deliberately false inputs to solve his problems. As a result, it was not possible to close the issue with the Crimea, there are also problems with the Donbass, the South Stream has shrunk to 2 pipes, and Syria has hung another head (we will come out - they will demolish Assad, which will make us look like idiots, but it is difficult and useless to sit). ‎
‎I don't know who came up with the "Ukrainian blitz-krieg". If we were given real introductory ones, we would at least point out that the original plan is controversial, that there is a lot to double-check. A lot. Now we've gotten into the shit somewhere up to our necks. And it's not clear what to do. "Denazification" and "demilitarization" are not analytical categories, because they do not have clearly defined parameters by which to determine the level of achievement or non-fulfillment of the task at hand.‎
‎Now it remains to be expected that some fucking adviser will convince the upper echelons to start a conflict with Europe with a demand to reduce some sanctions. Or reduced, or war. And if they refuse? Now I do not rule out that then we will be drawn into a real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939. And then our Z with the swastika will be equalized. ‎
‎Is there a possibility of a local nuclear strike? Yes. Not for military purposes (it will not give anything - this is a weapon of breaking through the defenses), but in order to intimidate the rest. At the same time, the ground is being prepared to turn everything to Ukraine - Naryshkin and his SVR are now digging the ground to prove that they secretly created nuclear weapons there. Bl*t, they are now hammering at what we have long studied and disassembled by bones: you can't draw evidence on the knee here, and the presence of specialists and uranium (Ukraine has a lot of depleted isotope 238) is about nothing. There, the production cycle is such that you can't do it unnoticed. You can't even make a "dirty" bomb unnoticed, and the fact that their old nuclear power plants can produce weapons-grade plutonium (stations such as EW-1000 give it in minimal quantities as a "by-product" of the reaction) - so there the Americans introduced such control with the connection of the IAEA, which is stupid to discuss the topic.‎
‎Do you know what's going to start in a week? Well, even in two even. We're going to get so covered now that we're going to start missing the hungry '90s. While the auction was closed, Nabiullina seems to be taking normal steps - but it's all like plugging a hole in a dam with a finger. It will break through anyway, and even stronger. Neither in 3, nor in 5, nor in 10 days anything will be solved already. ‎
‎Kadyrov beats his hoof for a reason - they have their own adventures there. He created an image of himself as the most influential and invincible. And if it falls once, it will be demolished by its own people. He will no longer be the master of the winning tape.‎
‎Here we go. Syria. "The guys will hold out, everything will end in Ukraine - and there in Syria we will again strengthen everything in positions." And now at any time they can wait for the contingent to deplete resources - and such heat will go ... Turkey is blocking the straits - planes to carry supplies there, it's like heating a furnace with money.‎
‎Notice that all this is happening at the same time, we do not even have time to bring everything into one heap. We have a situation like Germany in '43-'44. At the start right away. Sometimes I am already lost from this overwork, sometimes it seems that everything was dreamed and it was a dream that everything is as before.‎
‎Prisons, by the way, will be worse. Now the screws will begin to be tightened so that to the bloody succulent. Everywhere. To be honest, purely technically, this remains the only chance to keep the situation - we are already in the mode of total mobilization. But it is impossible to be in such a regime for a long time, and we have ambiguity with the timing and it will only get worse. From mobilization, management always goes astray. And imagine: you can run a hundred meters in a snatch, and to go to a marathon distance and give a snatch with all your might is bad. Here we are with the Ukrainian question rushed like a hundred meters, and fit into a marathon on rough terrain. ‎
‎And I told you very, very briefly about what was happening. ‎
‎From the cynical, I will only add that I do not believe that VV Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world.‎
‎Firstly, there is not one person making a decision, at least someone will jump off. And there are a lot of people there - there is no "one-man red button".‎
‎Secondly, there are some doubts that everything is functioning successfully there. Experience shows that the higher the transparency and control, the easier it is to identify shortcomings. And where it is not clear who controls and how, but there are always bravura reports - everything is always wrong there. I'm not sure if the red button system is functioning according to the stated data. In addition, the plutonium charge must be changed every 10 years.‎
‎Thirdly, and this is the most vile and sad thing, I personally do not believe in the willingness to sacrifice a person who does not let the members of the Federation Council, but his closest representatives and ministers, come close to him. Because of the fear of coronavirus or attack, it doesn't matter. If you are afraid to let the most trusted people in, how will you decide to destroy yourself and your loved ones inclusive? ‎
‎If anything, ask, but I may not answer for several days. We are in a rush mode, and there are more and more tasks. ‎
‎In general, our reports are cheerful, but everything flies in the pi_du." ‎
‎Never before had this source ‎‎Gulagu.net‎‎, written briefly and to the point. But now even he...‎