Hatred of Reason: GOP voter edition

18:05	Kaliuna	antifa nuts
18:05	synaptic	good one
18:06	synaptic	center for american progress
18:06	synaptic	ADL
18:06	MacGuffin	the republicans are only guilty of chicekshittery and hating cannabis
18:07	AilenNich	MacGuffin: What is the most dangerous aspect of the Democrats?
18:07	AilenNich	I think the most dangerous aspect of the GOP is that they are currently allowing the Madman Trump to remain president.
18:07	synaptic	ailennich, what do you think it is?
18:07	synaptic	ailennich, what is the most dangerous aspect of the Democrats?
18:07	AilenNich	synaptic: I don't believe the Democrat Party is a threat to the nation.
18:07	synaptic	why do you think Trump should not be president
18:07	MacGuffin	the most dangerous aspect of the democratic party is anti-americanism and apologism for devout fundamentalist followers of mohammed
18:07	AilenNich	I think they do pursue policies which overbenefit the elites of our society at the expense of most Americans.
18:07	Willpa	don't forget that the Republicans can spend public money just like the democrats, see 2019-20 budget deal
18:08	AilenNich	synaptic: Trump should not be be president for several hundred reasons.
18:08	MacGuffin	if there is anybody who is against america (besides putin), they make excuses for that person
18:08	synaptic	the most dangerous aspect of the democratic party is the concerted lawlessness
18:08	AilenNich	A recent reason: He stated that he'd run into a school shooting, without a weapon, to stop the shootoing.
18:08	synaptic	ailennich, name some
18:08	MacGuffin	not all democrats, but the most outspoken politicians belonging to the democratic party
18:08	synaptic	constitutional reasons
18:08	AilenNich	I support the impeachment and removal from office any president who speaks like that.
18:08	AilenNich	Why?
18:08	pilgrim`	yeah.  Trump won
18:08	MacGuffin	it is a long list
18:08	pilgrim`	t't pay
18:08	Willpa	I'm very disappointed in the House of Representatives
18:08	Kaliuna	AilenNich - lololololol --
18:08	AilenNich	Because such words can only be uttered by a very unstable mind.
18:08	pilgrim`	hey WIll
18:08	AilenNich	MacGuffin: Name two.
18:09	Defunked	oh look its someone whos never been here under any other nicl. hi ailennich
18:09	MacGuffin	obama, clinton, feinstein, pelosi, chumer...
18:09	Defunked	nick*
18:09	MacGuffin	partisan hacks
18:09	Willpa	Hail perigrinus maximus
18:09	MacGuffin	schmuck schumer
18:09	AilenNich	MacGuffin: So, the Democrat Party is more dangerous to the USA than the GOP.
18:09	pilgrim`	AlienNich my my simple minds need to be babied
18:09	pilgrim`	yes
18:09	AilenNich	And that is because of some of their "outspoken" politicians.
18:09	AilenNich	Which includes Obama and Clinton at head of your list.
18:09	pilgrim`	its  quite a bit more crooked
18:09	AilenNich	Two two Democrats are currently not in political office.
18:09	synaptic	ailennich, he passed a physical performed by a rear admiral of the navy, career doctor
18:09	MacGuffin	hell, yeah. their economic policies are also total garbage
18:10	AilenNich	How are these two private citizens dangerous to our nation?
18:10	MacGuffin	their criminal justice ideas are misguided
18:10	synaptic	ailennich, don't you think that admiral would have reported a mental deficit?
18:10	AilenNich	synaptic: That medical doctor said several comments which render the entire medical extremely suspect.
18:10	synaptic	ailennich, so you're calling him a liar?
18:10	AilenNich	For example, "I told Trump if he ate better he could live to 200."
18:10	AilenNich	synaptic: Yes.
18:10	synaptic	what are your credentials?
18:10	synaptic	are you a doctor?
18:11	synaptic	perhaps a lpn?
18:11	AilenNich	synaptic: I cannot prove that the Admiral lied. You should probably accept his testimony over mine.
18:11	AilenNich	Also, I think he lied.
18:11	AilenNich	And I think he lied because he has several examples of hyperbole in his report that cast the entire document into question.
18:11	synaptic	ailennich, do you have any constitutional reasons for removing the duly elected president of these united states
18:11	AilenNich	And, as a Rear Admiral, he should not have done this.
18:11	synaptic	or is it that you just don't like him
18:11	AilenNich	He should have taken his role to the nation very seriously and presented a document with only medical and scientific language.
18:11	AilenNich	He did not do that.
18:11	tis	A doctor can not publicly release anything about a patient’s health without the patient’s consent
18:12	MacGuffin	feinstein, pelosi, schumer, franken, ginsberg, as far as federal officers go
18:12	Defunked	lol just pasting shit
18:12	tis	if Trump told the doctor he can’t say anything bad
18:12	tis	then the doctor can’t say anything bad
18:12	tis	simple as that
18:12	AilenNich	synaptic: Conversation requires trust from one participant to another.
18:12	MacGuffin	the governor of oregon is another one
18:12	AilenNich	I have told you the reason.
18:12	MacGuffin	dangerous woman she is
18:12	AilenNich	If you do not trust me, then we cannot have a conversation.
18:12	AilenNich	You do not need to trust my conclusions, of course.
18:12	MacGuffin	bill de blasio is a dangerous man
18:12	pilgrim`	Our Lesbain in Chief needs to go to soem nunnery
18:12	AilenNich	Only that what I said is an honest representation of my internal state.
18:12	synaptic	AilenNich, so you think trump is crazy and we should remove him on that belief?
18:12	AilenNich	Correct.
18:12	MacGuffin	they are ruining their own states and trying to ruin the whole country!
18:12	tis	Trump’s a fat old man - you only need eyes to see that. You don’t need to be a doctor
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18:12	AilenNich	synaptic: What did you think of Donald Trump stating he would run into a school shooting, unarmed?
18:13	synaptic	i think that donald trump pushes people's buttons
18:13	tis	The reports about his height & weight are obvious lies
18:13	Willpa	Ya  see nearly no one paid attention to what I said, as usual, we have a highly irresponsible House of Representatives on another spending spree and nobody in here gives a shit because the R's are in the majority and can do no wrong, bullfuckinshitski
18:13	AilenNich	What do you think of the truth of that statement, combined with the mental processes that generated it.
18:13	synaptic	and you should not take everything he says literally
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18:13	synaptic	doing so, to me, is a sign of mental impairment
18:13	pilgrim`	I think Trump found Alien Nich's buttons...personally
18:13	MacGuffin	trump is not a saint! nobody claimed that he was!
18:13	MacGuffin	damn it...
18:13	AilenNich	What do you think of the truth of that statement, combined with the mental processes that generated it.
18:13	synaptic	he was fishing for a reaction
18:14	synaptic	and it looks like he got one
18:14	synaptic	that's it, the art of the troll
18:14	AilenNich	What reaction(s) was he fishing for?
18:14	[pack]	wonder where realiste is?
18:14	synaptic	i couldn't say precisely
18:14	synaptic	ailennich
18:14	AilenNich	Why do you think he was fishing for reactions?
18:14	synaptic	trump has his plan though, it'll all come out in time
18:14	synaptic	you will see and go aha
18:14	synaptic	that crazy statement makes sense now
18:14	AilenNich	"I don't stand by anything" - Donald Trump
18:15	Willpa	the US is Twenty one trillion in debt and climbing
18:15	fred	offtopic: are you able to access this ? : https://arteconcert-a.akamaihd.net/am/concert/073000/073900/073990-014-C_SQ_0_VO_03039037_MP4-2200_AMM-CONCERT-NEXT_l5pRYrbp2.mp4
18:15	urlinfo	*** Content type: video/mp4
18:15	AilenNich	synaptic: Should we take literally anything Donald Trump says?
18:15	synaptic	he'll fake you out, even his own supporters
18:15	tis	synaptic: And you think that’s appropriate behavior for a president? To respond to such a tragedy by attention-desperate trolling? You think it’s good that the president’s reaction to a bunch of children being murdered is “but but but what about MEEEEEEEEEE? PAY ATTENTION TO MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”
18:15	synaptic	he says outrageous things, things against his pledges, to whip up his base to eat out their congressmen's substance with phone calls and e-mails and so on
18:15	tis	synaptic: I agree with you that it’s what he’s doing, I just wouldn’t hire someone who behaves that way to be a janitor
18:15	rakshasa	what's after a trillion?  quadrillion?
18:15	AilenNich	You have a detailed model of Trump's intentionality.
18:16	tis	rakshasa: Yes
18:16	tis	rakshasa: 1000 trillion
18:16	sn00p	AilenNich, nur nur nur retard retard alert
18:16	synaptic	these are my suspicions after analyzing his moves for a couple years
18:16	AilenNich	synaptic: Should we take literally anything Donald Trump says?
18:16	synaptic	not on twitter
18:16	MacGuffin	why?
18:16	tis	pilgrim`: I didn’t bring up this topic, synaptic brought up the trolling.
18:16	AilenNich	synaptic: He issued his statement on running into a school shooting, unarmed, in the Oval Office.
18:16	AilenNich	Perhaps you forgot.
18:16	rakshasa	take it out to the ballgame
18:16	MacGuffin	trump is a hyperbolic speaker
18:16	synaptic	i think you have to weigh each statement carefully
18:16	AilenNich	synaptic: Should we take literally anything Donald Trump says?
18:17	synaptic	i mean what he did to poor diane feinstein is practically elder abuse
18:17	AilenNich	synaptic: That implies, yes, we should take some things he says literally.
18:17	synaptic	he really hooked her, she's out pushing gun control lol
18:17	MacGuffin	he said he would add ten feet to the wall every time vincente fox would complain about it
18:17	AilenNich	What parts of this event causes you to understand it was not literal?
18:17	MacGuffin	simple hyperbole
18:17	tis	pilgrim`: But nonetheless, why is it a good thing for the president to respond to such a terrible tragedy that way? By trolling….and desperately trying to find some way to make it all about him, which is what synaptic claims he did?
18:17	rakshasa	enough wall talk, let's start building it
18:17	AilenNich	rakshasa: The wall is coming really soon.
18:17	AilenNich	Believe me.
18:17	synaptic	the president has his own motives there, hard to say without knowing everything he knows
18:18	rakshasa	hopefully we don't hire too many illegals to build it
18:18	synaptic	but some of the gambits are far more obvious
18:18	tis	rakshasa: You know it’s not coming at this point.
18:18	AilenNich	synaptic: When you asked me why I thought the Rear Admiral was lying, at least in part, I gave you a specific example.
18:18	tis	You should have known it was a scam from day 1
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18:18	tis	but at this point? You know
18:18	AilenNich	You appear unable to do that in this case.
18:18	synaptic	he is getting people to play their hand, expose their positions and relationships, and so on
18:18	synaptic	and it's all going into midterm campaign ads
18:18	AilenNich	synaptic: Donald Trump is historically unpopular right now, though.
18:18	rakshasa	some policies might be like "really soon" but never arrive
18:18		+++ Ekko has given voice to cohokille
18:18	AilenNich	How do you manage that in your model?
18:19	synaptic	ailennich, that is not my obvservation
18:19	synaptic	perhaps in your backyard he is
18:19	AilenNich	Oh, we don't need to personally observe these things.
18:19	AilenNich	https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
18:19	synaptic	i should trust a poll then?
18:19	AilenNich	There you go.
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18:19	synaptic	ah yes fivethirtyeight
18:19	AilenNich	You should trust aggregates of polls -- yes.
18:19	synaptic	how'd they do predicting the outcome of the election?
18:19	AilenNich	They gave Donald Trump a 30% chance of winning.
18:19	synaptic	who won
18:19	AilenNich	synaptic: Do you know how probability works?
18:19	tis	synaptic: Quite well - RCP average was Hillary +3, the result of Hillary +2. That’s what they measure - the popular vote. They did an excellent job of it
18:19	synaptic	does 538?
18:20	AilenNich	synaptic: Have you ever played poker?
18:20	synaptic	nope
18:20	synaptic	not once
18:20	synaptic	are you a gambler?
18:20	AilenNich	synaptic: Say that the odds of me winning this pot are 80%, but I have to put in 70% of the pot to call.
18:20	AilenNich	Should I make that bet?
18:20	AilenNich	I should, right, because it's a positive expected value play.
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18:20	tis	AilenNich: You seriously shouldn’t have answered that question for him
18:20	tis	he didn’t know the answer
18:21	synaptic
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18:21	AilenNich	Now, when the cards are turned over, and I lose -- which will happen 20% of the time -- should I necessarily modify my priors?
18:21	AilenNich	I shouldn't, right.
18:21		MacGuffin dials up presh talwalkar
18:21	tis	he didn’t know it was an obvious call
18:21	tis	seriously
18:21	MacGuffin
18:21	tis	he didn't
18:21	AilenNich	If you're familiar with Bayesian inference.
18:21	tis	and he would have never figured it out
18:21	AilenNich	synaptic: We don't know the 'odds of Trump winning the presidency.
18:21	AilenNich	Because that's not how the universe works.
18:21	tis	and good god, concepts such as the negative expected  value of stating hands? That’s farrrrrrrrrrr beyond the mental capabilities of people here AilenNich. Don’t bother.
18:21		tis does play poker
18:21	AilenNich	There are no 'odds' in the universe.
18:21	AilenNich	There are only odds in probability models.
18:22	AilenNich	Yes, the 538 model appears to have been an accurate model.
18:22	AilenNich	Their estimate of 30% seems reasonable.
18:22	AilenNich	tis: synaptic has training with neural networks.
18:22	synaptic	well hey they're apparently saying trump is unpopular right now
18:22	MacGuffin	what is the probablility that there will be an election at all?
18:22	MacGuffin	100%?
18:22	AilenNich	He is able to recognize that my argument is sound.
18:22	AilenNich	Though, he is unlikely to admit it.
18:22	synaptic	is that true?
18:22	AilenNich	For factional reasons.
18:22	synaptic	or only true sometimes?
18:23	AilenNich	synaptic: Their model indicates -- with high confidence -- that Donald Trump is historically unpopular.
18:23	synaptic	so in a million election events, hillary would have won
18:23	MacGuffin	trump has the homefield advantage
18:23	synaptic	most of the time
18:23	AilenNich	You can see his approval rating over time compared to other presidents.
18:23	synaptic	but in that one, she didn't.. maybe she should run again then!
18:23	AilenNich	synaptic: If you sample from the model 538 generated, Hillary won 70% of the time.
18:23	AilenNich	You can't sample from reality, however.
18:23	synaptic	would you support her in the next fake democratic primary?
18:23	MacGuffin	when a president is unseated, how does it usually play out?
18:23	AilenNich	Probability exists in models -- not the universe.
18:24	AilenNich	synaptic: Hillary Clinton is irrelevant to this topic.
18:24	synaptic	law of large numbers, right?
18:24	synaptic	in any event, she has another shot at it in 2020
18:24	MacGuffin	it happened twice in recent history, right? bush and carter
18:24	tis	synaptic: You’ve spent the last 20 years claiming Hillary Clinton would be a terrible candidate who would surely lose. The data backed it up - she turned out to be the least favorable democratic nominee in the history of the party. You were right - she did lose. BARELY. Trump BARELY managed to beat the worst dem either
18:24	synaptic	she should throw her hat into the ring, she'll surely win this time
18:24	synaptic	how could she lose?
18:24	AilenNich	synaptic: Are you now lost to the Hillary topic?
18:24	AilenNich	I will move on, if so.
18:24	MacGuffin	ford
18:24	tis	synaptic: So it’s obvious why you’re desperate to cling to this delusional fantasy that she’d somehow run again - you know she’s the only possible candidate Trump would stand a chance again
18:24	synaptic	your arrogance betrays your message
18:24	synaptic	it's too bad
18:25	tis	MAYBE he’d find a way to BARELY beat the worst dem nominee in history again!
18:25	AilenNich	Being able to keep track of the structure of a conversation is a key cognitive skill.
18:25	MacGuffin	hillary clinton did not deserve to win
18:25	tis	but probably not - his approval has tanked it the last year
18:25		--- VonMises has banned ailennich!*@*
18:25		*** AilenNich was kicked by Kalypso (Banned: go away forever)