Referencias:
Bayes: O cara! - https://www.dropbox.com/s/s8npbiv7zhg2sna/Thomas_Bayes_CH.pdf?dl=0
Base rate Fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
An Experientially Derived Base-Rate Error in Humans:
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9280.1995.tb00314.x