MKT Frenzy Probabilities (Multiplayer, as of Patch 2.8.0)

**BASE CHANCE OF STARTING A FRENZY**

1st Place: 1% (Lap 1) | 3% (Lap 2)
2nd Place: 2% (Lap 1) | 4% (Lap 2)
3rd Place: 4% (Lap 1) | 8% (Lap 2)
4th Place: 6% (Lap 1) | 9% (Lap 2)
5th Place: 10% (Lap 1) | 15% (Lap 2)
6th Place: 14% (Lap 1) | 22% (Lap 2)
7th Place: 17% (Lap 1) | 32% (Lap 2)
8th Place: 21% (Lap 1) | 50% (Lap 2)

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**CHANCE OF GETTING [X] ITEM AS A FRENZY**

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---- 1st Place, Laps 1 & 2 -----
-some positions have different probabilities based on Lap

**No Special Item** (your driver does not have an obtainable Special Item in this position)
Banana – 30%
Green Shell – 10%
Coin – 50%
Super Horn – 10%

**Giant Banana, Triple Bananas, Coin Box(+)** (your driver can obtain these Special Items in this position)
-(+) next to an item denotes that its Plus variant has the same probability as the regular one
Banana - 24%
Green Shell - 8%
Coin - 40%
Super Horn - 8%
Giant Banana, Triple Bananas, Coin Box(+) - 20%

**Giant Banana+, Triple Bananas+ Driver**
Banana - 20.7%
Green Shell - 6.9%
Coin - 34.5%
Super Horn - 6.9%
Giant Banana+, Triple Bananas+ - 31%

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---- 2nd Place, Lap 1 -----

**No Special Item**
Banana – 25%
Green Shell – 30%
Red Shell – 15%
Bob-omb – 10%
Coin – 10%
Super Horn - 10%

**Most Special Items** (exceptions will always be in their own sections)
Banana - 20%
Green Shell - 24%
Red Shell - 12%
Bob-omb - 8%
Coin - 8%
Super Horn - 8%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Giant Banana, Yoshi Egg(+), Birdo Egg(+), Boomerang, Hammer(+), Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb(+), Coin Box(+) - 20%

**Available Plus Items** (minus Triple Greens+)
Banana - 17.2%
Green Shell - 20.7%
Red Shell - 10.3%
Bob-omb - 6.9%
Coin - 6.9%
Super Horn - 6.9%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang+, Triple Bananas+ - 31%

**Triple Green Shells+ specific**
Banana - 19.2%
Green Shell - 23%
Red Shell - 11.5%
Bob-omb - 7.7%
Coin - 7.7%
Super Horn - 7.7%
Triple Green Shells+ - 23%

----- 2nd Place, Lap 2 -----

**No Special Item**
Banana – 25%
Green Shell – 30%
Red Shell – 15%
Bob-omb – 10%
Coin – 10%
Super Horn - 10%

**Most Special Items**
Banana - 20%
Green Shell - 24%
Red Shell - 12%
Bob-omb - 8%
Coin - 8%
Super Horn - 8%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Giant Banana, Yoshi Egg(+), Birdo Egg(+), Boomerang, Hammer, Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb(+), Coin Box(+) - 20%

**Specific Plus Items**
Banana - 17.2%
Green Shell - 20.7%
Red Shell - 10.3%
Bob-omb - 6.9%
Coin - 6.9%
Super Horn - 6.9%
Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Giant Banana+, Boomerang+, Hammer+, Triple Bananas+, Triple Green Shells+ - 31%

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----- 3rd Place, Lap 1 -----

**Special Items Group 1** (all Specials are available in this position but have differing probabilities)
Banana - 28%
Green Shell - 20%
Red Shell - 8%
Mushroom - 4%
Bob-omb - 20%
Super Bell, Dash Ring, Bubble(+), Lucky 7, Bowser Shell(+), Giga Bob-omb(+), Triple Mushrooms, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon(+), Banana Barrels(+), Mushroom Cannon(+) - 20%

**Special Items Group 2**
Banana - 23.3%
Green Shell - 16.7%
Red Shell - 6.7%
Mushroom - 3.3%
Bob-omb - 16.7%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Giant Banana, Yoshi Egg(+), Birdo Egg(+), Boomerang, Hammer(+), Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb(+), Coin Box(+) - 33.3%

**Plus Items Group 1** (+ variants that have differing probabilities from other Specials)
Banana - 20%
Green Shell - 14.3%
Red Shell - 5.7%
Mushroom - 2.9%
Bob-omb - 14.3%
Giant Banana+, Triple Bananas+, Boomerang+, Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+, Triple Green Shells+ - 42.9%

**Plus Items Group 2**
Banana - 24.1%
Green Shell - 17.2%
Red Shell - 6.9%
Mushroom - 3.4%
Bob-omb - 17.2%
Super Bell+, Heart+, Triple Mushrooms+, Dash Ring+ - 31%

**Lucky 7+ specific**
Banana - 26.9%
Green Shell - 19.2%
Red Shell - 7.7%
Mushroom - 3.8%
Bob-omb - 19.2%
Lucky 7+ - 23.1%

----- 3rd Place, Lap 2 -----

**Almost entirely unchanged except for these:**
Triple Mushrooms+, Heart+ - 31% -> 20%
Hammer+ - 33.3% -> 42.9%

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----- 4th Place, Lap 1 -----

**All Special Items/most Plus variants**
Banana - 10%
Green Shell - 20%
Red Shell - 6.7%
Mushroom - 3.3%
Bob-omb - 16.7%
Blooper - 10%
Super Bell, Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Dash Ring, Bubble(+), Lucky 7, Bowser Shell(+), Giant Banana, Yoshi Egg(+), Birdo Egg(+), Boomerang, Giga Bob-omb(+), Triple Mushrooms, Heart, Hammer(+), Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb(+), Bob-omb Cannon(+), Banana Barrels(+), Mushroom Cannon(+), Coin Box(+) - 33.3%

**Other Plus Items**
Banana - 8.6%
Green Shell - 17.1%
Red Shell - 5.7%
Mushroom - 2.9%
Bob-omb - 14.3%
Blooper - 8.6%
Giant Banana+, Triple Bananas+, Boomerang+, Super Bell+, Fire Flower+, Heart+, Ice Flower+, Triple Mushrooms+, Dash Ring+ - 42.9%

**Triple Green Shells+ specific**
Banana - 7.5%
Green Shell - 15%
Red Shell - 5%
Mushroom - 2.5%
Bob-omb - 12.5%
Blooper - 7.5%
Triple Green Shells+ - 50%

**Lucky 7+ specific**
Banana - 9.4%
Green Shell - 18.8%
Red Shell - 6.3%
Mushroom - 3.1%
Bob-omb - 15.6%
Blooper - 9.4%
Lucky 7+ - 37.5%

----- 4th Place, Lap 2 -----

**Changes**
Heart+, Triple Mushrooms+ - 42.9% -> 33.3%
Hammer+ - 33.3% -> 42.9%
Triple Green Shells+ - 50% -> 42.9%, Triple Green Shells+ specific category removed

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----- 5th Place, Lap 1 -----

**All Special Items/most Plus variants**
Banana - 3.3%
Green Shell - 3.3%
Red Shell - 6.7%
Mushroom - 14.7%
Bob-omb - 20%
Blooper - 12%
Blue Shell - 3.3%
Mega Mushroom - 3.3%
Super Bell, Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Dash Ring, Bubble(+), Lucky 7, Bowser Shell(+), Giant Banana, Yoshi Egg(+), Birdo Egg(+), Boomerang, Giga Bob-omb(+), Triple Mushrooms, Heart, Hammer(+), Triple Bananas, Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb(+), Bob-omb Cannon(+), Banana Barrels(+), Mushroom Cannon(+), Coin Box(+) - 33.3%

**Other Plus Items**
Banana - 2.9%
Green Shell - 2.9%
Red Shell - 5.7%
Mushroom - 12.6%
Bob-omb - 17.1%
Blooper - 10.3%
Blue Shell - 2.9%
Mega Mushroom - 2.9%
Giant Banana+, Triple Bananas+, Boomerang+, Super Bell+, Fire Flower+, Heart+, Ice Flower+, Triple Mushrooms+, Lucky 7+, Dash Ring+ - 42.9%

**Triple Green Shells+ specific**
Banana - 2.5%
Green Shell - 2.5%
Red Shell - 5%
Mushroom - 11%
Bob-omb - 15%
Blooper - 9%
Blue Shell - 2.5%
Mega Mushroom - 2.5%
Triple Green Shells+ - 50%

----- 5th Place, Lap 2 -----

**Changes**
Heart+, Triple Mushrooms+ - 42.9% -> 33.3%
Hammer+ - 33.3% -> 42.9%
Triple Green Shells+ - 50% -> 42.9%, Triple Green Shells+ category removed

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6th Place, Lap 1

**Special Items Group 1**
Red Shell - 14.7%
Mushroom - 13.3%
Bob-omb - 10%
Blooper - 12%
Blue Shell - 3.3%
Mega Mushroom - 13.3%
Super Bell, Dash Ring, Bubble(+), Lucky 7, Bowser Shell(+), Giga Bob-omb(+), Triple Mushrooms, Heart, Triple Green Shells+, Bob-omb Cannon(+), Banana Barrels(+), Mushroom Cannon(+) - 33.3%

**Special Items Group 2**
Red Shell - 17.6%
Mushroom - 16%
Bob-omb - 12%
Blooper - 14.4%
Blue Shell - 4%
Mega Mushroom - 16%
Fire Flower, Ice Flower, Yoshi Egg(+), Birdo Egg(+), Boomerang, Hammer(+), Triple Green Shells, Double Bob-omb(+) - 20%

**Plus Items Group 1**
Red Shell - 12.6%
Mushroom - 11.4%
Bob-omb - 8.6%
Blooper - 10.3%
Blue Shell - 2.9%
Mega Mushroom - 11.4%
Super Bell+, Heart+, Triple Mushrooms+, Lucky 7+, Dash Ring+ - 42.9%

**Plus Items Group 2**
Red Shell - 15.2%
Mushroom - 13.8%
Bob-omb - 10.3%
Blooper - 12.4%
Blue Shell - 3.4%
Mega Mushroom - 13.8%
Boomerang+, Fire Flower+, Ice Flower+ - 31%

----- 6th Place, Lap 2 -----

**Changes**
Heart+, Triple Mushrooms+ - 42.9% -> 33.3%
Hammer+ - 20% -> 31%
Triple Green Shells+ - 33.3% -> 42.9%

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----- 7th Place, Lap 1 -----

**Special Item available**
Red Shell - 18%
Mushroom - 24.7%
Blue Shell - 4%
Bullet Bill - 2%
Lightning - 2.7%
Mega Mushroom - 15.3%
Super Bell, Dash Ring, Bubble(+), Lucky 7, Bowser Shell(+), Giga Bob-omb(+), Triple Mushrooms, Heart, Bob-omb Cannon(+), Banana Barrels(+), Mushroom Cannon(+) - 33.3%

**Other Plus Items**
Red Shell - 15.4%
Mushroom - 21.1%
Blue Shell - 3.4%
Bullet Bill - 1.7%
Lightning - 2.3%
Mega Mushroom - 13.1%
Super Bell+, Heart+, Triple Mushrooms+, Dash Ring+ - 42.9%

**Lucky 7+ specific**
Red Shell - 13.5%
Mushroom - 18.5%
Blue Shell - 3%
Bullet Bill - 1.5%
Lightning - 2%
Mega Mushroom - 11.5%
Lucky 7+ - 50%

----- 7th Place, Lap 2 -----

**Changes**
Heart+, Triple Mushrooms+ - 42.9% -> 33.3%

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----- 8th Place, Laps 1 & 2 -----

Mushroom - 42%
Bullet Bill - 5%
Lightning - 7%
Mega Mushroom - 45%