3/8/24-3/11/24 Ukrainian General Update

3/8/24-3/11/24 Update, day 744-747 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Currently, there are no reports of Polish border protestors blocking passenger traffic at the border, despite sensational claims otherwise.

Slovak President Chaputova criticized the planned judicial reform and pro-RU rhetoric of new PM Robert Fico, drawing comparisons to Hungary.

The Moldovan government continues to warn that RU is investing considerable resources to topple the current government in Moldova during elections, supporting separatist politicians.

Kyiv/ Central Ukraine:

UA has reportedly intercepted 151/175 shaheds launched in the last 2 weeks. 35/39 drones were intercepted overnight.

UA continues to debate the proposed mobilization law, focusing on exemptions for caregivers for disabilities and graduate students. Following a large filibuster-style process wherein UA reps submitted thousands of amendments (which have to be reviewed one at a time), its expected that the bill will be voted on in approximately 2 weeks. In such a case, it likely wont formally be signed into law until April.

Zelensky commented on the planned postponing of presidential elections this year, stating that the 3 primary obstacles are:
1. Existing legislation relating to martial law and voting
2. Ensuring that all serving military members would have the ability to vote effectively
3. Provide a method for the 7 million + displaced UA citizens to vote, including abroad.

Zelensky stated that Putin's goal is the complete subjugation of UA, and that specific territories or regions are not of heavy importance to RU regarding its overall desires. He also expressed positivity regarding the proposals to send more artillery ammo to UA from the EU.

Zelensky also rejected the Popes recent statement about UA needing to consider "waving a white flag", saying that "Russian murderers and torturers are not going further in Europe only because they are being held back by Ukrainians with arms under the blue and yellow flag"

The UA PM Denis Shmyhals proposal for defensive lines is reportedly proceeding apace, with the ultimate goal being 3 defensive lines in depth across the front.

Kyiv police arrested 4 men who were extorting citizens while representing themselves as military recruiters, offering exemptions and threatening frontline service if bribes were not paid.

Reportedly some 1500 cases for evading service have been prosecuted since 2022, with 60 of these cases resulting in imprisonment of up to 5 years.

The UK Minister of Defense arrived in Kyiv on a working visit.

UA is reportedly discussing resuming passenger air travel with EU and US regulators, using lessons learned from Israeli aviation experts under rocket attacks. Reportedly several EU airlines are already interested in resuming air transport immediately after its possible, including Ryanair and 3 UA airlines.

UA removed the Chief of the Air Force from his position.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city region:

RU attacked firefighters in the border village of Vovchansk with drones, as they were leaving a fire scene. It increasingly appears that emergency workers are targeted intentionally by drones across the front.

RU attacked Kharkiv with 8 Shaheds overnight, intercepting 3 of them.


Kupyansk/ E Kharkiv:

RU did not conduct offensive operations towards Synkivka or Kupyansk over the past day, with reports of more RU troops rotated south towards Lyman. UA is apparently rebuilding its minefields here.

RU shelled Kupyansk with MLRS, killing two elderly residents.


Kreminna/Lyman:

RU launched 8 assaults towards Terny and the Zherebets river valley over the last day, with about 300m of reported gains. UA strikes and drones have targeted RU long range heavy artillery in this area, as RU airstrikes target the main highway, some 2 km away.



Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

UA commanders in the Bakhmut/Ivanivske area claim that the frontline has stabilized, and with increased ammunition RU forces can be dislodged from the E side of the town and the frontlines pushed back to the hills.

There has been an increase in RU drone activity towards Chasiv yar, along with airstrikes along the main road.

There was a considerable RU attack towards Kliischivka, which apparently failed with almost 2 dozen vehicle losses to artillery and drones. RU MLRS fire continues to strike the UA defensive positions in the hills here.


Pokrovsk/Avdiivka direction:

RU forces completed capturing Orlivka over the weekend, as UA drone strikes increased dramatically along the main roads into the village. RU launched 14 assaults here.

RU has garrisoned the coke plant and is utilizing it as a hub for drone operations, making things difficult for UA.

Confirmation on a Patriot battery TEL loss, and allegedly 2 additional munitions carrying vehicles, comes from memorial information posted by the killed UA soldier's families. This is believed to be one of the launchers utilized for frontline interceptions of RU aircraft.

RU airstrikes continue across the frontline towns here, targeting a local hospital with S-300 missiles, as well as apartments.

Reportedly RU usage of CS gas grenades has increased dramatically in this area, with 50 incidents recorded over the past week. These generally come after RU is unsuccessful with conventional artillery or drones, using CS and CN gas to drive UA soldiers out into the open.

UA continues to rotate troops out of the Pokrovsk area, stating that about 2/3 of RU attacks occur between Bakhmut and Marinka areas.


Donetsk/Luhansk/Occupied areas:

UA will begin demining agricultural land in Donetsk oblast, with a projected 120 square km planned for this year out of a total of 615 square km.

RU has begun early voting in Donetsk and Luhansk occupied regions, with irregularities already reported. Despite lack of access to many towns, all votes were reportedly cast and recorded in record time.

There have been no notable changes in the Marina/SW Donetsk axis over the past weekend, despite concerns of RU breakthroughs towards Konstantinyvka. 18 RU assaults were recorded in this area over the past day.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU shelled 9 settlements 225 times over the past day.

RU continues efforts to push towards Robotyne and Vuhledar, with increased usage of chinese provided Desertcross 3-seater APCs. These assaults have not been successful.

On March 8th, UA shot down 33/37 Shahed drones launched across the frontline. 1 S-300 and 2 Kh-59 missiles were also used

UA is pushing for more aggressive sanctions against RU for their occupation of the ZNPP, with an IAEA demand levied to make RU withdraw from the plant. There have been increased UA drone strikes on RU forces to the W of the NPP.

RU is stepping up surveillance and checkpoints in occupied Zaporizhia in the run up to the RU presidential elections, alongside other pressures.

There were reportedly explosions in Tokmak and Melitopol at RU military bases over the weekend.

UA destroyed a brand new RU EW Palantin system in Zaporizhia, responsible for jamming wide sectors of the battlefield. It was only deployed in 2019.


Kherson:

RU attempted to dislodge UA defenders 1 time yesterday in Krynky.

UA airstrikes hit an RU command post located in a beached ship in the Dnipro, a container ship which had been lodged ashore since the dam broke last year.

A family with 6 children successfully returned to Ukrainian territory from the occupied part of Kherson.

UA has demined some 250 square km of territory in the Kherson region in the past week, defusing 967 pieces of UXO.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

RU attacked Odesa with 18 drones over the weekend, damaging infrastructure.

Per UA marine biologists, the Black sea has suffered tremendously since the war began. Specifically since the Kahkovka dam collapsed, salinity in the black sea dropped from 11.4% to 4.5%, which has caused a mass death of shellfish and a plankton bloom, along with industrial chemicals.

Reportedly some 50,000 dolphins have been killed primarily due to acoustic damage from RU sonar and weapon launches.

RU reportedly has the absolute minimal amount of ships in Crimean ports, after deploying most of the BSF to Novorossisyk, apparently to evade UA strikes.

RU is reportedly trying to recruit teenagers to "Junior army" organizations in Crimea. Last year 100 members of the Youth Army were sent to fight at the frontlines.


Russia:

The US CIA reportedly was concerned about potential RU usage of nuclear weaponry in late 2022, delivering clear threats as to the US "strategic non-nuclear" response if any were used. This falls in line with marked concern in UA media about nuclear incidents around the same time.

A UA drone attack damaged a repair plant used by RU A-50 aircraft deep into RU. Its unclear how many drones penetrated the structure itself.

RU is submitting a draft law to render the 1958 Crimean integration to the Ukrainian Soviet Republic "illegal".

RU is planning to raise taxes after the elections, to bring in additional $27.5 billion USD a year. This would raise the tax rate from 13>15% for citizens making more the $11,000 a year and 15>20% for citizens making more then $55,000. This is about 20 million people, or 14% of the population.

Income tax is expected to be raised from 20% to 25%.

The RU CiC of the Navy has been dismissed. He served since 2019.

Russia has removed up to 40% of its strategic tank reserves, depending on the model, from open-air storage facilities per ISW. They are deploying tanks in less modernized status directly from reserves.




General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 10 airstrikes and RU forces 87 air strikes (including drones) and 32 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
920x troops (424,980 in total)
24x APC
8x Tanks
2x Air defense
34x Artillery (1x MLRS)
0x Aircraft
74x vehicles
59 x UAV

These costs amount to some $84.3 million USD, or $3.0 billion over the last 30 days.


Overseas:

Former UA CiC Zaluzhny is due to be appointed as ambassador to the UK.

The EU is seeking to speed up the approval of a mechanism that will allow the use of profits/interest from Russia's frozen assets so that UA can receive the first tranche of €2-3 billion in July. This mechanism will not apply to the almost €4 billion that the EU has already accrued from the profits of frozen Russian assets, which are planned to be used primarily to cover legal costs associated with Russia's claims against the EU.

Reportedly Switzerland is becoming a large hub for RU intelligence operations in the EU, with about 1/3 of the 218 registered RU diplomats believed to be spies. This is primarily due to the fact Switzerland didn't expel RU diplomats at the beginning of the invasion, as many other EU members did.

UA filmmakers won an Oscar for Best Documentary relating to "20 days in Mariupol". UA public television complained the international broadcast material from Disney omitted the award, among others.

German Foreign minister Burbock is amenable to transferring Taurus missiles to the UK, who can then provide more Storm Shadows to Ukraine.

Starting next week, British cars subject to London's ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ) regulations will not be scrapped, but will be handed over to Ukraine. Applicants can also donate vehicles for the same grant payment of 2000 pounds.

RU is reportedly amplifying UA refugee propaganda in eastern europe, in anticipation of EU elections in June. This is designed to benefit anti-immigrant nationalist parties in Germany, France, and others.

NYT reported that twelve UA pilots will be ready to fly F-16 fighter jets in combat this summer, but by the time they come back home from training, UA will have received only six aircraft.