3/19/24-3/20/24 Ukraine Military Update

3/18/24-3/20/24 Update, day 755-756 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

Polish protestors were reportedly blocking busses into and out of the Medyka border crossing, limiting it to one bus every 2 hours. This ceased several hours later, but is a worrying development.

The EU has extended the free trade agreement on UA agricultural imports for another year, until June 2025.

2 men who refused military summons were charged with evasion and sentenced to 3 years in jail, in Vinnitsya.

A criminal group which had committed arson for hire across Northern Ukraine was broken up, with 12 people arrested. They were charging between 500 and 3000 USD per arson attack.

Polish President Andrey Duda stated that RU may target NATO countries in 2-3 years and urged NATO members to increase defense spending.

The Ramstein-20 meeting concluded with an emphasis of allied countries increasing artillery supply to UA. A number of EU countries offered increased aid packages, with Germany promising an additional 500 million Euros.

Moldova declared an RU diplomat persona non grata and expelled, for organizing the RU elections in Transnistria. The Gaugazia pro-RU region of Moldova continues to echo separatist rhetoric after. There has been a noted increase in RU disinfo ops targeting Moldova ahead of the elections this year.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine/Politics:

In March, RU launched 130 missiles, 320 Shaheds, and almost 900 aerial bombs at Ukraine.

UA PM Denis Shmyhal stated UA will have enough ammo for operational needs beginning in April, thanks to the Czech led initiative. He also stated that there is "Currently no need to mobilize 500k soldiers into the ZSU", commenting on the mobilization bill which has been discussed.

US National Security adviser Jake Sullivan stated in Kyiv today he is confident that the US will pass the $61 billion UA aid bill, and there is no need for a "plan b" at this time. Zelensky met with the Dutch MoD today.

UA Stated they are capable of producing 2 million UAVs this year, if financial assistance from the west is secured. Specifically, UA is making contracts for less then the total production capacity due to insufficient funds.

UA is auctioning off the seized pro-RU politician Medvedchuk's yacht, which is currently in Croatia, in order to fund the UA defense sector.

UA received the first 4.5 billion euros of the 50 billion Euro fund today.

Approximately 40% of UA POW's returned home were previously considered MIA, due to a lack of Red Cross access to RU POW camps.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

There has been a noted increase in UA drones on RU targets inside Russia proper, in tandem with RDK assaults. Several tanks and trucks appear to have been targeted. The deepest FPV strike was some 8 km inside RU territory, or 25 km from Belgorod city proper.

RU fired several missiles (including a Kh-35 anti ship rocket) into NW Kharkiv city during the day, killing 5 people in a printing house and wounding at least 8.

RU dropped 2 glide bombs on the border village of Kozacha Lopan.




Kupyansk/East Kharkiv:

RU has resumed offensive operations to the NE of Kupyansk near Synkivka, launching 10 assaults over the last day. These were unsuccessful, as UA troops appear to have recaptured and mined territory previously contested by RU troops, prior to the RU troop rotation here.


Kreminna/Lyman axis:

RU launched 14 assaults over the last day between Terny and Bilhorivka, apparently attacking further to Terny. RU APCs were destroyed about 1.5 km away from Terny and the main road here.

It appears that RU is trying to move infantry through the forest belts here which stretch to the N and S of the main road utilized in the failed RU mechanized assaults.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU launched 7 assaults in the SW Bakhmut direction, with no observed gains, as troops continue to skirmish around the partially captured village of Ivanivske.

About 790 remain in Chasiv Yar per UA, of which 90% are elderly. The city is about 70% destroyed.


Avdiivka/Pokrovske:

RU attempted to push west from Adviivka 13 times over the past day with no observed gains, as they continue to navigate natural terrain features. There has been an uptick in RU drone strikes here, predominantly launched from the captured coke plant.


Donetsk/Luhansk/occupied regions:

RU continues to focus its largest efforts to the SW of Marinka, launching 29 assaults over the last day. These don't appear to have had any change on the battlefield, and its reported the bulk of these assaults are 10 soldiers or less supported with minimal vehicles, so as to avoid triggering UA artillery response.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU attempted 6 assaults across the frontline with no observed changes. Drones and airstrikes continue heavily across the front.

RU carried out 350 strikes on 10 settlements in the Zaporizhia region.


Kherson:

RU launched 1 assault towards Krynky over the last day.

RU is reportedly preparing to mobilize locals in S Kherson to serve in RU military formations, likely to support RU assaults towards Krynky.

Another civilian was killed when he brought an explosive home.

RU Lancets targeted a UA Trainer aircraft some 50km from the front at an airfield near Mykolaiv.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea

2 RU recon drones were shot down over Odesa oblast.

20 people who were wounded in the March 15th attack on Odesa remain in hospital.

RU claims to have intercepted UA drones over Crimea.


Russia:

UA drones reportedly targeted the Engels airfield in Saratov oblast, where RU keeps part of its long range strategic bomber craft. Allegedly at least 10 RU strategic bombers have taken off from the Olenya air base, and missile strikes across UA are expected tonight.

Per ISW, Putin intends to use the alleged record high voter turnout and support to further create the illusion of general support for the war. RU is additionally committing to standing up an additional 25,000 troops for longer term goals.

UA drone strikes on RU oil refineries have reportedly taken offline about 11% of RU's total refining capacity. RU has also indicated it will deploy more SAM systems to RU interior infrastructure.

RU stated they had trained over 100 new FPV drone pilots thus far this year.

The RU CiC of the Navy was replaced by the Northern Fleet commander.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 6 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 89 air strikes (including drones), and 95 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

700 x soldiers (Total 431,550) [7 day avg 889].
9x APC
9x Tank
0x Air defense
16x Artillery (0xMLRS)
7x vehicles
37x UAV

Estimated cost: $36.5 million USD

total estimated cost- $92.2 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.8 Billion USD total over last 30 days.

RU loss ratio of Tanks: IFV has been historically consistent thus far at 1:1.87, but as of this month has spiked to 3.53, or almost double. This means that RU is losing more IFVs in proportion, indicating a decrease of RU tank presence on the battlefield.

Overseas:

In Canada, the Senate approved an updated Free Trade Agreement with UA. Canadian Defence Minister Bill Blair has suggested that Canada and other partners could purchase Ukrainian-made drones for their own defence needs.

The European Union has prepared legislation according to which Ukraine will start receiving profits from frozen Russian assets as early as July this year.

Former CSTO member Armenia, who lost a set of conflicts with neighboring Turkish-supported Azerbaijan, has stated that Azerbaijan may launch another war this week, following Azeri targeting of several border villages. The lack of CSTO response to the 2022 war which took Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia has caused RU to appear unable/unwilling to fulfill its security guarantor tasks.