calamari manip implications

Calamari Manip and possible route changes.

1) The manip

See Claude's explanation: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/380237433?t=02h11m13s

See Verniy's speedrun: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/380306705?t=01h23m39s

See my manip spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sZwrRKhsJ85NHG-GEP34lsRcyYU9fToV3o4n06Achq4/edit?usp=sharing

2) The route

Let's look at our probabilities of different strats on boss fights to figure out which one has the best possible time save.

Findings - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uRbyjfeb7TsGr7MlQ0F5NEKkUwspWyEnmUlA7w8HPCE/edit?usp=sharing

Specific math:

Dodo - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YLETs75aw6PZOqlA4Zwj_f7rBrdY67ZICIYWAfZkrJY/edit?usp=sharing
Czar - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11mn54Tyg8FtLCL9izhrk2Ewe94z9fVZQv0gLms-M45A/edit?usp=sharing
Axem - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ilevvg-MmrFMLVWi2mf6LhBSnZ4cqCZsqYAroVNfik0/edit?usp=sharing
Gunyolk - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rSC_4fa5IjhSZuLpvduCLkGicW9pZiYaBOGgYPucFfI/edit?usp=sharing
Bowser's Keep fires - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t4S2R2DNRazAy5ONlD5wt9AIduLeOl5Hxhvr9LW6o-I/edit?usp=sharing

Ultra Jump math for any assumed ultra jumps (such as Axems) - https://pastebin.com/7ghExJR6

Summarized:

9 ice, 3 fire, 1 fright, 0 bad  - loses 5 seconds to current route with average luck
7 ice, 4 fire, 2 fright, 0/1 bad - loses 4-5 seconds to current route with average luck
8 ice, 3 fire, 1 fright, 1 bad  - faster than current route by 1 second with average luck. above average = more (i.e. the run)