Pokemon Gen 3 Kanto Safari Mechanics Analysis [Outdated]

Gen 3 Kanto Safari Mechanics Analysis

I. Catch Mechanics in Overworld
II. Catch Mechanics in Safari Zone
III. Flee Mechanics in Safari Zone
IV. Calculated Data & Sources

NOTE: This analysis only applies to the FireRed/LeafGreen Safari Zone. Hoenn Safari Zone has different mechanics for capturing Pokemon, although there are similarities.

I. Catch Mechanics in Overworld (Gen 3)

The mechanics of catching Pokemon are a little complicated. Catch rates for Pokemon are determined by the formula as follows:

X = (((3M-2H)*(C*B))/3M)*S

Where M is the Pokemon's Maximum HP, H is the Pokemon's Current HP, C is the base Catch Rate of the Pokemon, B is the Ball Modifier, and S is the Status Modifier. If X < 1, X = 1 instead.

After this, you can approximate the probability P of capture to X/255. If X > 255, the game will skip the shake checks and just play through the capture animations. Otherwise, each shake has a calculation to see if it will break out, the details of which we don't need to go through here and are readable in the source documentation at the end.

Normally, when encountering a wild Pokemon that you want to catch, you'll attempt to damage it in order to bring its HP down, and give it a status in order to help modify the X value even further. By bringing X closer to 255, catches become much simpler with various balls.

II. Catch Mechanics in Safari Zone

When it comes to the Safari Zone, however, things are slightly different. Pokemon that are available in the Safari Zone have a modified Catch Rate that is different than the normal one for wild Pokemon. This causes differences in catching from outside.

As an example, we'll look at Nidoran-Male. Nidoran-M has a normal catch rate of 235. Based on the above formula, with full HP and a Great Ball, he has a typical successful catch chance of 50.284%.

In Safari Zone, Pokemon have a "Catch Factor" which is calculated from the normal catch rate of the Pokemon. This factor is calculated by multiplying the catch rate by 100/1275, and then rounding the result down (flooring). For our Nidoran-M, this catch factor is 18.

When the player chucks a Safari Ball at a wild Nidoran-M in the Safari Zone, the game takes this catch factor and recalculates its catch rate by multiplying by 1275/100 and flooring the result. That catch rate number for Nidoran-M is 229. Then it goes through the catch calculations with this new catch rate number and the Safari Ball modifier, which is 1.5. (This is the same as a Great Ball.)

"But wait!" you might say, "That number is lower than its original value!" You would be correct, as the flooring operation makes the catch rate lower through its calculations. The final probability for capture is thus 44.706% for the Nidoran-M we are trying to catch. Not very good odds.

However, there are two mechanics that allow us to modify the Catch Factor: Throwing either rocks or bait. These mechanics are fairly simple, if slightly unintuitive. Throwing a rock will double the Pokemon's catch factor. Throwing bait will halve the catch factor. Both of these effects last 2-6 turns.

We'll discuss bait later in this analysis, but the rock throwing is key because it allows capture rates to rise significantly in order for us to catch Pokemon. to bring back the example of Nidoran-M, if we were to throw a rock at it, the catch factor becomes 36. When we attempt the throw a Safari Ball, the new catch rate becomes 459. Flowing through the remaining calculations, we get a much larger probability of successful capture of 89.804%!

III. Flee Mechanics in Safari Zone

The other major mechanic in the Safari Zone is fleeing. A Pokemon has a chance to flee at the end of the round, thus ending the encounter and giving you much frustration. Each species of Pokemon has its own Flee Rate. For the example Nidoran-M, it has a base Flee Rate of 50. The game then creates a modified Flee rate in a similar fashion to the catch rate by multiplying it by 100/1275. For Nidoran-M, this would be 3.

After the player has a turn, the game calculates an escape chance by multiplying the modified Flee Rate by 5 (yielding 15 for Nidoran-M). Then, it generates a random number from 0-99. If this number is less than the multiplied number, the Pokemon escapes and the encounter ends.

When you throw a rock or throw bait, the modified Flee Rate changes. If a rock is thrown, the modified Flee Rate doubles. If bait is thrown, the modified Flee Rate is halved (and floored). Like the catch mechanic, these effects last 2-6 turns.

So for the Nidoran-M, if we throw a rock at it, its escape chance becomes 30. If bait is thrown, its escape chance is 8.

IV. Calculated Data & Sources

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R2hTzp77fX15E4FitoJSzriUvy71c8NPC9WeotFpYWg/edit?usp=sharing

Linked here is a Google Spreadsheet that looks at the catch and flee rates regarding throwing a rock or not throwing a rock for certain Land Pokemon in Safari Zone.

Data for Flee rates was gathered by GoddessMaria15 (https://pastebin.com/E7Cg1w9F)

Catch formula calculations: https://www.dragonflycave.com/mechanics/gen-iii-iv-capturing

Information on Gen 3 Kanto Safari Mechanics was gathered from Bulbapedia: https://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Kanto_Safari_Zone#Generation_III

Note for above: This information was entered into the wiki in May 2011, and I could not find a further source to back these mechanics up. However, this information had not been reverted at all since, and I believe it is reliable. If you can find me a better source, I would very much appreciate it.