Red win chance by fight (new route)

(1:45 attempts, no YOLO E4)

ODDS TO...							%			Fraction
Finish "on pace" run deathless		1.4%		1/71
Finish after Brock					2.3%		1/43
Finish after Moon exit				3.8%		1/26
Finish after Misty					7.3%		1/14
Finish after Surge					11.3%		1/9
Finish after Channeler 1			22.7%		1/4
Finish after Juggler 2				41.8%		2/5
Finish after Blackbelt				51.0%		1/2
Finish after Bruno					54.4%		1/2
Finish after Agatha					66.3%		2/3

TOP RUN KILLERS ("WR attempts"):
1. Misty (25%)
T-2: Juggler 2 (22%)
T-2. Champion (22%)
4. Brock (20%)
5. Rocket (19%)

FIGHT				% WIN		NOTES
Rival 1				99			Actual win chance is like 92%, but nearly all deaths are slow fights that you reset
Nido manip			91			IGT0
Weedle Guy			86			Based in part on various simulation data
Forest encounters	99.8		Pika pika
Brock				80
BC1					99.8
Shorts Guy			89
BC2					97
BC3					97
Moon manip			91			IGT0
Rocket				81
Super Nerd			99.8
Cerulean Rival		95
NB1					99.8
NB2					97
NB3					96
NB4					97
NB5					89
Rocket				97
Hiker 1				100
Lass 1				98
Hiker 2				99.5
Lass 2				98
Rocket				99
Jr. Trainer-F		99
Misty				75			Based on Mumpfel's simulations
Jr. Trainer-F		96
Jr. Trainer-M		96
S.S. Anne Rival		83
Surge				84
4-turn Thrash		93			Stun Spore counts as a death
Bug Catcher			97
Pokemaniac 1		96
Pokemaniac 2		99.6		Assuming no red bar stall here (for simplification purposes)
Jr. Trainer-F		81.5		Stun Spore counts as a death
Hiker				99.5
Jr. Trainer-F		97
Gambler				96
Lavender Rival		89
Channeler 1			86
Channeler 2			99.9
Channeler 3			99.9
Rocket 1			99.9
Rocket 2			100
Rocket 3			100
Silph Rocket 1		100
Silph Rival			87			Based in part on various simulation data
Silph Rocket 2		84			Based in part on various simulation data
Giovanni 1			96			Based in part on various simulation data
Juggler 1			99.5
Juggler 2			78			Based in part on various simulation data
Koga				99.8
Beauty				100
Erika				99.2
Blaine				100
Sabrina				98.7
Cooltrainer			99.8
Blackbelt			84
Giovanni 2			99
Viridian Rival		99.9		Rhyhorn X Acc if didn't die to boom
Lorelei				99.8
Bruno				95
Agatha				82			Based in part on various simulation data
Lance				85
Champion			78			85+% if your goal is strictly 1:45:59