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- There used to be a thorn in the side of investment "guru" newsletter writers. The thorn's name was Mark Hulbert. Hulbert used to track the performance of over 100 newsletter writers. By setting up a virtual account for each newsletter writer. Each account simulated an investor rigorously following every recommendation of the newsletter writer. Hulbert published the results of all the accounts once a month in Hulbert Financial Digest.
- Newsletter gurus dwindled in popularity in favor of other sorts of gurus. Mark Hulbert sold his company to MarketWatch. MarketWatch sold to Dow Jones. Dow Jones sold to Rupert Murdoch. Hulbert started writing articles for MarketWatch on topics other than newsletter writers. Hulbert kept publishing Hulbert Financial Digest for each successive owner. But covering fewer newsletter writers. More guru seekers started to think that a guru seeker could evaluate gurus through cheaper (especially as cheap as free) sources. Or through the infallible intuition of the guru seeker.
- Subscriptions to Hulbert Financial Digest kept falling. Mark Hulbert stopped publishing Hulbert Financial Digest in 2016. RIP Hulbert Financial Digest. But Mark Hulbert writes an occasional column for MarketWatch. This is one of them. It is probably not news to you. But Hulbert makes an important point. And the column is easy enough and quick enough to read that a client could follow it. To prove it, I am a client. And I followed it!
- I have almost never used a future earnings projection. I believe in this Danish saying
- It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future
- which dates back to, at latest, 1948. Yep. That 2nd digit is a 9. The 1st written reference is recent compared to sayings that are centuries old.
- The Hulbert article
- https://bitly.com/2A1b9vF
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