1/12/24-1/15/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

1/12/24-1/15/24 Update, day 688-691 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

UA practiced drills for an RU/Belarusian recon operation along the NW border, especially around the Rivne NPP. This comes after a Belarusian man attempted to sabotage energy infrastructure after crossing he border.

The Polish PM Donald Tusk condemned the previous "Law and Justice" administration on stoking Anti-UA positions in the last months of the election campaign, stating "Every polish patriot must recognize [our commitment] to the war for our own safety". He likewise drew reference to Polish farmer and transport carriers, stating that they should not suffer because of UA border control issues.

Poland scrambled fighter jets during the recent RU missile attack.

Polish protestors' continue to impede truck traffic at 3 checkpoints, where there are 850 trucks waiting in queue.

UA will deploy police officers to 402 schools close to the front lines and the RU/Belarusian borders.

The city of Lviv has agreed to pay a $1300 bonus on top of regular recruiting pay to anyone from the region who signs up for Paratrooper or Marine forces.


Kyiv/ Central Ukraine:

During the morning missile attack on January 13th, RU fired 6 Khinzal aeroballistic missiles. At least 3 missed their targets, and over 20/40 targets were intercepted via EW. UA Air defense stated that RU missiles are becoming less reliable.

Overall-
3 Shaheds
7 S-300/400
6 Khinzal
12 Kh-101
6 Kh-22
2 Kh-31
4 Kh-59

7x Kh101 and 1x Kh-59 were physically intercepted.


The UA Parliament committee returned the draft bill on mobilization to the originator, stating it needed revisement. The representative parliamentarian stated that the ZSU reiterated the importance of further mobilization to replenish reserves.

UK PM Rishi Sunak visited Kyiv on January 12th along with his senior Defense staff. He announced a 2.5 Billion Pounds military aid package to UA. Specifically, this will include ammo, training, and 200 million pounds specifically for new drones. Sunak and Zelensky additionally signed a security agreement. The agreement stated that (following the war) there will be a 24 hour requirement for each country to respond to the other's aid.

UA PM Denys Shmyal stated that there are 30 countries interested in signing security agreements with Ukraine. The UK agreement is expected to be the benchmark reference for future agreements.

The new French foreign minister visited UA, discussing joint production of drones, ammo, and air defense.

Reportedly there are over 200 drone manufacturing companies registered in UA currently, with 100x increase in drone production in 2023 compared to 2022. Allegedly there is a production capacity over 1 million FPV drones per year.

4 Kyiv city council members are charged with evading military service over the last year, while still drawing a military paycheck.

The UA MoD will begin posting military non-combat job openings to job portals, and offering them to unemployed citizens.

5168 illegal weapons were confiscated over the last year, along with some 3000 kg of explosives, 16800 explosive devices, and 17.8k mines.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city region:

Following an RU Kh-22 missile strike on Shostka, Sumy Region, some 12,000 apartments were cut off from heating after heating infrastructure was targeted. 26 buildings were damaged.

RU heavily shelled the Sumy border region over the weekend, firing over 100 barrages.

Some 217 cultural heritage sites have been destroyed in the Kharkiv region since the war began, and local initiatives are working to figure out solutions for repairing historical structures.

UA border guards successfully intercepted an RU drone with an anti-drone gun and landed in it Kharkiv oblast. About 20 drones have been intercepted and captured in this way this year.


Kupyansk/East Kharkiv/Kreminna:

UA has made limited gains to the NE of Petropavlivka along the highway, as heavy RU drone usage is observed closer to Kupyansk.

Increased surrende

RU continues unsuccessful attempts to push through Synkivka towards Kupyansk, with a reduced number of assaults (2) over the past 24 hours.

RU utilized some 574 artillery shells, 18 airstrikes, and 30 FPV drones over this front in the last 24 hours. UA destroyed some 256 soldiers, 11 BMP, 4 tanks, and 1 APC.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU attempted 6 assaults out of Bakhmut in the last 24 hours, aided with drones and airstrikes to no avail.

RU utilized some 537 shells, 3 airstrikes, and 41 FPV drones over the past 24 hours in the Bakhmut region.

UA destroyed 104 soldiers, 2 tanks, 4 BMP, and 1 APC.



Avdiivka:

UA repelled 16 RU attacks NW of Avdiivka and 15 attacks SW of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske over the last 24 hours. A UA SOF team elimited an RU recon operation with the help of thermal imaging.

RU contested additional territory near Stepove.

UA CiC Zaluzhny and his staff spent several days meeting with brigades in the Avdiivka, Zaporizhia, and Kherson regions.

Per UA Gen Syrskyi, RU has consistently failed in accomplishing its deadlines for the winter offensive, with regards to taking key towns.

RU attacked Myrnograd with two missiles, damaging power and heat infrastructure and cutting off 920 people from heat. Construction and repairs are ongoing.



Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU bloggers claim a new offensive as

RU contested additional territory SW of Donetsk city near Petropavlivka.

RU has been recorded utilizing chemical munitions some 626 times since the invasion began, the overwhelming majority being K-51 CS grenades. There has been observation of artillery shells and explosives loaded up with improvised irritant substances, as well as RG-VO grenades utilized to spread CS gas more recently. 51 of the cases have been recorded over the last 2 weeks, as they become increasingly prevalent in use, up to 10 a day.

RU is reportedly processing a considerable increase in severely wounded soldiers, due to a lack of trained medical workers in the occupied territories. Some 700 soldiers with various severe injuries have arrived in Belgorod, Moscow, and Kaliningrad. This comes as RU field hospitals are overcrowded t the breaking point and cannot process the number of injured soldiers that arrive every day.

RU is allegedly issuing stimulants and psychotropic substances for mood stabilization and pain dulling among their soldiers.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU apparently lost an A-50u Mainstay Airborne Early Warning craft over the Sea of Azov, 1/7 still active. It was apparently performing a mission due to the destruction of RU Radar platforms, and was shot down either by RU friendly fire or a long range UA AA strike. An Il-22 airborne command post was reportedly also severely damaged and landed in Anapa.

RU only attempted 2 attacks along the Zaporizhian front near Robotyne, with a reduction in recent combat operations. RU carried out 84 strikes on 19 settlements, including with 21 drones.

IAEA observers continue to be blocked from accessing some of the reactor halls, as the 15th rotation of IAEA observers occurred without incident.

RU has continued to deploy Medical teams from RU proper, specifically Karelia, into Zaporizhia. This is due to critically low levels of available medical services for the population, which is precipitating increased civilian mortality.

Unknown explosions occurred in Mariupol over the weekend.


Kherson:

RU only attempted one 1 assault towards Krynky over the last 24 hours, continuing to bombard the site from afar.

RU continues to shell infrastructure in the Kherson region, targeting a fire station with FPV drones. They additionally targeted an ambulance station.

UA trolley busses were damaged and impeded over the day in Kherson.

UA FPV drones continue to effectively target RU vehicles in and around Krynky, reportedly contributing to 90% losses of RU vehicles dispatched to the area.

Approximately 118 children remain the frontline villages in Kherson, down from 800 when mandatory evacuation was instituted. There are approximately 5-10k children in the Oblast, and further evacuation measures are considered if the situation deteriorates.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

Reportedly members of the UA resistance Atesh group have managed to infiltrate the Anti-Aircraft regiment located in Sevastapol, recording information and coordinate locations.

A UA Sgt Major in the 35th Marines murdered his Deputy company commander before committing suicide. One was a logistics officer and the other a political officer. Neither served in direct combat roles.

RU currently has 5 Amphibious ships drilling in the E Black sea coast, and 1 Frigate carrying 8 Kalibr missiles deployed. There is no evidence of RU planning an amphibious operation.

Two Zaporizhia citizens attempted to cross the UA-Transnistrian border wearing snow camouflage suits and white masks. They were detained.


Russia:

RU continues to contract some 1000-1100 soldiers every day, motivated by salary.

RU is producing some 120 strategic missiles and 110 tactical missiles a month, with no recent increase in production.

There have been continued power outages across russia in the grips of the coldest winter since the 1970s. A powerplant in Magadan on the RU Pacific coast has reportedly ceased working, causing considerable power outages and heating failures. Similar energy infrastructure failures have been noted across many areas of RU, including moscow and St petersburg.

Per GUR Head Budanov, while RU has increased the production of ammunition over the last year, quality is decreasing noticeably. Per Western estimates, RU produced approximately 2 million shells over 2023, and received approximately 1 million from the DPRK. Visualization of the DPRK shells and charges further indicates low quality.

Reportedly RU military related imports are at 90% of their pre-war number ($9/$10 billion USD). This is primarily entering through third parties in China, Turkey, and the UAE. Approximately half of the imports were goods produced by western companies.

RU is reportedly preparing to challenge any steps taken by the US and EU to confiscate some $300 billion USD in frozen assets, with currently about 2/3 of the value in western european countries. RU is confident that they have legal grounds to block any confiscation, especially with the end goal being transfer to Ukraine.
Per the US special representative for UA economic recovery, this must be a collective decision and will take time.

There was a significant warehouse fire at Wildberries, the RU Amazon analogue. Reportedly it was due to arson.

RU is allegedly issuing stimulants and psychotropic substances for mood stabilization and pain dulling among their soldiers.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 4 airstrikes and RU forces 60 air strikes (including drones) and 7 missile strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:
980x troops (366,770 in total)
20x APC
14x Tank
2x Air defense
25x Artillery (1xMLRS)
0x Aircraft
31x vehicles
4x UAV


Overseas:

Some 174k square KM of Ukraine require demining operations, or about the total land area of Oklahoma.

Zelensky will deliver a special address to the World Economic Forum in Davos on jan 16th, as part of his Switzerland meetings.

The EU is reportedly considering agreeing to Orbans "annual re-assessment" of military aid to Ukraine in order to secure passage of the 50 Billion Euro bill. Other members of the EU are petitioning to deprive Hungary of voting rights, stating that Hungary has failed to live up to a number of EU values, especially regarding corruption.

Turkey continues to work on mediating POW exchanges with RU, but states that in part due to "one man rule" in Russia, even carefully negotiated agreements can fall apart last minute.

Estonia will not deport UA men of mobilization age, saying UA should work to recruit them via less punitive measures.

Switzerland will allocate 1.6 billion Euros for UA between 2025-2028.

Per the Czech Republics intel services, RU spies remain active in the EU, and specifically in Czech territory. They are primarily working on circumventing EU sanctions, despite the expulsion of 60 diplomatic staff from CZ in 2021.