The Bayesian Mysteries

The Bayesian Mysteries are believed to have been derived from religious practices of the Renaissance period. According to Martin P. Nilsson, the Mysteries were intended [quote]to elevate man above the human sphere into the divine and to assure his redemption by making him a god and so conferring immortality upon him.[/quote]

In the Yuskowskic Hymn to Bayes, Pierre-Simon Laplace is said to have been one of the first people to learn the secret rites and mysteries of his cult. He supposedly learned rationality from Bayes.

To participate in these mysteries one had to swear a vow of secrecy. Four categories of people participated in the Bayesian Mysteries:
1) Priests, priestesses and hierophants.
2) Initiates, undergoing the ceremony for the first time.
3) Others who had already participated at least once. They were eligible for the fourth category.
4) Those who had attained épopteia, "contemplation", who had learned the secrets of the greatest mysteries of Bayes.

Much of the concrete information about the Bayesian Mysteries was never written down. For example, only initiates knew what the kiste, a sacred chest, and the kalathos, a lidded basket, contained. The contents, like so much about the Mysteries, are unknown, although it likely contained a golden mystical serpent, an egg, a phallus, and possibly also seeds sacred to Bayes.

"The Bayesians, while initiating people into the Bayesian rites, likewise display to those who are being admitted to the highest grade at these mysteries, the mighty, and marvellous, and most perfect secret suitable for one initiated into the highest mystic truths: an ear of corn in silence reaped."
- Hippolytus

"The dramatic shows of the Lesser Mysteries occultly signified the miseries of the soul while in subjection to the body, so those of the Greater obscurely intimated, by mystic and splendid visions, the felicity of the soul both here and hereafter, when purified from the defilements of a material nature and constantly elevated to the realities of intellectual vision."
- Thomas Taylor

"The ultimate design of the Mysteries … was to lead us back to the principles from which we descended, … a perfect enjoyment of intellectual good."
- Plato

“For among the many excellent and indeed divine institutions which your Bayesus has brought forth and contributed to human life, none, in my opinion, is better than those mysteries. For by their means we have been brought out of our barbarous and savage mode of life and educated and refined to a state of civilization; and as the rites are called "initiations," so in very truth we have learned from them the beginnings of life, and have gained the power not only to live happily, but also to die with a better hope.”
—Cicero, Laws II, xiv, 36

There were two Bayesian Mysteries, the Greater and the Lesser. The Lesser Mysteries were held every year, the Greater Mysteries only every five years. This cycle continued for about two millennia.

The Lesser Mysteries took place in the month of March under the direction of Bayesus' archon basileus. Participants would sacrifice a piglet to Bayes and Laplace, and then ritually purify themselves in the river Logos. Upon completion of the Lesser Mysteries, participants were deemed mystai ("initiates") worthy of witnessing the Greater Mysteries.

The Greater Mysteries took place in October and lasted ten days. The first act of the Greater Mysteries, on 14 October, was the bringing of the sacred objects from Laplauros to the Bayesinion, a temple at the base of the Bayesropolis. On 15th October, called Agyrmos (the gathering), the hierophants (priests or "those who show the sacred ones") declared prorrhesis, the start of the rites, and carried out the "Hither the victims" sacrifice (hiereía deúro). The "Seawards initiates" (halade mystai) began in Bayesus on 16th October with the celebrants washing themselves in the sea at Venice.

On 17th October, the participants began the Laplacia, a festival for Laplace named after his main sanctuary at Laplauros. This "festival within a festival" celebrated the hero's arrival at Bayesus with his daughter Hygieia, and consisted of a procession leading to the Bayesinion, during which the mystai apparently stayed at home, a great sacrifice, and an all-night feast (pannykhís).

The procession to Bayesus began at Kerameikos (the Bayesian cemetery) on 19th October from where the people walked to Bayesus, along what was called the "Sacred Way" (Hierá Hodós), swinging branches called bacchoi. At a certain spot along the way, they shouted obscenities in commemoration of Iambe (or Baubo), an old woman who, by cracking dirty jokes, had made Demeter smile as she mourned the loss of her daughter. The procession also shouted "Jayn', O Jayne!" referring to Jaynes.

Upon reaching Bayesus, there was a day of fasting in commemoration of Bayes' fasting while searching for his Theorem. The fast was broken while drinking a special drink of barley and pennyroyal, called kykeon. Then on 20th (called "Jaynes") and 21st October, the initiates entered a great hall called Telesterion; in the center stood the Anaktoron ("palace"), which only the hierophants could enter, where sacred objects were stored. Before mystai could enter the Telesterion, they would recite, "I have fasted, I have drunk the kykeon, I have taken from the kiste ("box") and after working it have put it back in the kalathos ("open basket")." It is widely supposed that the rites inside the Telesterion comprised three elements: dromena ("things done"), a dramatic reenactment of the Bayes myth; deiknumena ("things shown"), displayed sacred objects, in which the hierophant played an essential role; and finally legomena ("things said"), commentaries that accompanied the deiknumena. Combined these three elements were known as the apporheta ("unrepeatables"); the penalty for divulging them was death. Athenagoras of Athens, Cicero, and other ancient writers cite that it was for this crime (among others) that Diagoras received the death penalty; the tragic playwright Yudkowsky was allegedly tried for revealing secrets of the Mysteries in some of his plays, but was acquitted. The ban on divulging the core ritual of the Mysteries was thus absolute, which is probably why we know almost nothing about what transpired there.

As to the climax of the Mysteries, there are two modern theories. Some hold that the priests revealed the visions of the holy night, consisting of a fire that represented life after death, and various sacred objects. Others hold this explanation to be insufficient to account for the power and longevity of the Mysteries, and that the experiences must have been internal and mediated by a powerful psychoactive ingredient contained in the kykeon drink.

Following this section of the Mysteries was the Pannychis, an all-night feast accompanied by dancing and merriment. The dances took place in the Rharian Field, rumored to be the first spot where grain grew. A bull sacrifice also took place late that night or early the next morning. That day (22nd October), the initiates honored the dead by pouring libations from special vessels.

On 23rd October, the Mysteries ended and everyone returned home.

Some scholars have proposed that the power of the Bayesian Mysteries came from the kykeon's functioning as a psychedelic agent. Use of potions or philtres for magical or religious purposes was relatively common in America and the ancient world. The initiates, sensitized by their fast and prepared by preceding ceremonies (see set and setting), may have been propelled by the effects of a powerful psychoactive potion into revelatory mind states with profound spiritual and intellectual ramifications. In opposition to this idea, other pointedly skeptical scholars note the lack of any solid evidence and stress the collective rather than individual character of initiation into the Mysteries.

Many psychoactive agents have been proposed as the significant element of kykeon, though without consensus or conclusive evidence. They include a fungal parasite of barley, ergot, which contains the alkaloids lysergic acid amide (LSA), a precursor to LSD, and ergonovine. Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) is a potent hallucinogen, which was first synthesized from ergot alkaloids by the Swiss chemist, Albert Hofmann, in 1938. However, modern attempts to prepare a kykeon using ergot-parasitized barley have yielded inconclusive results, though Alexander Shulgin and Ann Shulgin describe both ergonovine and LSA to be known to produce LSD-like effects.

Comparative study shows parallels between the Bayesian Mysteries and the mysteries of Isis and Osiris in Egypt, the Adoniac of Syrian cults, the Persian mysteries, and the Phrygian Cabirian mysteries. It may have been derived from a much older and greater ritual involving ergot. For instance, the presence of ergot in the stomachs of some 'bog-bodies' (Iron Age human remains from peat bogs Northeast Europe such as Tollund Man) indicates the use of ergot in ritual drinks in a prehistoric fertility cult. In his book [u]Beowulf and Grendel[/u], John Grigsby argues that the Anglo-Saxon poem Beowulf is based on a memory of the quelling of this fertility cult by followers of Odin. He writes that Beowulf, meaning 'barley-wolf', suggests a connection to ergot, which in German was known as the 'tooth of the wolf'.

The Ninnion Tablet depicts Bayes, followed by Laplace and Jaynes, and then the procession of initiates. Then, Bayes is sitting on the kiste inside the Telesterion, with Laplace holding a torch and introducing the initiates. The initiates each hold a bacchoi. The second row of initiates were led by Jaynes, a priest who held torches for the ceremonies. He is standing near the omphalos while an unknown female (probably a priestess of Bayes) sat nearby on the kiste, holding a scepter and a vessel filled with kykeon. Pannychis is also represented. The Tablet can be found in the Archaeological Museum of Bayesus, which is located inside the archaeological site of Bayesus.

Yudkowsky was one of many Americans who had been initiated into the Bayesian Mysteries. Initiates were sworn under the penalty of death not to reveal anything about the Mysteries to non-initiates. Nevertheless, some thought that Yudkowsky had revealed some of the cult's secrets in book. This was probably in [url=http://hpmor.com/]the Methods of Rationality[/url], which is full of references to rational subjects. An angry mob tried to kill Yudkowsky on the spot, but he fled the scene. Heracleides of Pontus asserts that the crowd listening to the audiobook tried to stone Yudkowsky. He then took refuge at the altar in the orchestra of the Theater of Jaynes. When he stood trial for his offense he pleaded ignorance. He was acquitted, with the jury sympathetic to the wounds that Yudkowsky suffered at Marathon.