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| 1 | library(XML) | |
| 2 | black <- readHTMLTable("http://www.gwern.net/Black-market%20survival", colClasses = c("character", "factor", "factor", "logical",
| |
| 3 | "factor", "logical", "character", "logical", "logical", | |
| 4 | "factor", "factor", "logical", "logical", | |
| 5 | "integer", "logical", | |
| 6 | "character"))[[1]] | |
| 7 | black[black$Codebase=="",]$Codebase <- NA | |
| 8 | black$Start <- as.Date(black$Start); black$End <- as.Date(black$End) | |
| 9 | black[is.na(black$End),]$End <- Sys.Date() # assuming the table is up to date | |
| 10 | black$Age <- black$End - black$Start | |
| 11 | black$Age <- as.integer(black$End - black$Start) | |
| 12 | ||
| 13 | # for competing-risks modeling | |
| 14 | levels(black$Closure) <- c("alive", "hacked", "raided", "scam", "voluntary") # sets "" to "alive"
| |
| 15 | ||
| 16 | sum(sort(as.Date(black$Start)) >= as.Date("2014-01-01"))
| |
| 17 | # [1] 43 | |
| 18 | sort(black[as.Date(black$Start) >= as.Date("2014-01-01"),]$Market)
| |
| 19 | # [1] 1776 Abraxas Alpaca Marketplace | |
| 20 | # [4] AlphaBay Andromeda Area51 | |
| 21 | # [7] Armory Vendor Market BlackBank Market Black Goblin Market | |
| 22 | # [10] Breaking Bad Cannabis Road Cannabis Road 2 | |
| 23 | # [13] Cannabis Road 3 Cantina Cloud-Nine | |
| 24 | # [16] DarkBay Darknet Nation Deepzon | |
| 25 | # [19] Diabolus Doge Road drugslist | |
| 26 | # [22] evolution EXXTACY Freedom Market | |
| 27 | # [25] GreyRoad Hansa Hydra | |
| 28 | # [28] Middle Earth Marketplace Mr Nice Guy Nucleus Marketplace | |
| 29 | # [31] Onionshop Panacea Pigeon Market | |
| 30 | # [34] Red Sun Marketplace Sanitarium Market Silk Street | |
| 31 | # [37] TOM Topix 2 TorBazaar | |
| 32 | # [40] TorEscrow Tortuga 2 Underground Market | |
| 33 | # [43] Utopia | |
| 34 | length(black[black$End > as.Date("2014-01-01") & black$End < as.Date("2015-01-01"),]$Market)
| |
| 35 | # [1] 46 | |
| 36 | sort(black[black$End > as.Date("2014-01-01") & black$End < as.Date("2015-01-01"),]$Market)
| |
| 37 | # [1] 1776 Alpaca Marketplace Andromeda Armory Vendor Market | |
| 38 | # [5] BlackBox Market Black Goblin Market Black Services Market Blue Sky | |
| 39 | # [9] Breaking Bad BuyItNow Cannabis Road Cannabis Road 2 | |
| 40 | # [13] Cannabis Road 3 Cantina Cloud-Nine DarkBay | |
| 41 | # [17] Darknet Nation Deepzon Doge Road drugslist | |
| 42 | # [21] EXXTACY FreeBay Freedom Market GreyRoad | |
| 43 | # [25] Hansa Hydra Mr Nice Guy Onionshop | |
| 44 | # [29] Pandora Pigeon Market Pirate Market Red Sun Marketplace | |
| 45 | # [33] Sanitarium Market Silk Road 2 Silk Street The Marketplace | |
| 46 | # [37] TOM Topix 2 TorBay TorBazaar | |
| 47 | # [41] TorEscrow Tortuga Tortuga 2 Underground Market | |
| 48 | # [45] Utopia White Rabbit | |
| 49 | ||
| 50 | sort(black[black$Alive,]$Market) | |
| 51 | # [1] Abraxas Agora AlphaBay | |
| 52 | # [4] Area51 BlackBank Market Diabolus | |
| 53 | # [7] Dream Market evolution Middle Earth Marketplace | |
| 54 | # [10] Nucleus Marketplace Outlaw Market Panacea | |
| 55 | # 67 Levels: 1776 Abraxas Agora Alpaca Marketplace AlphaBay Andromeda Area51 ... White Rabbit | |
| 56 | sort(black[black$Alive & black$Start >= as.Date("2014-01-01"),]$Market)
| |
| 57 | # [1] Abraxas AlphaBay Area51 | |
| 58 | # [4] BlackBank Market Diabolus evolution | |
| 59 | # [7] Middle Earth Marketplace Nucleus Marketplace Panacea | |
| 60 | # 67 Levels: 1776 Abraxas Agora Alpaca Marketplace AlphaBay Andromeda Area51 ... White Rabbit | |
| 61 | ||
| 62 | sort(table(black[as.Date(black$End) >= as.Date("2014-01-01"),]$Closure))
| |
| 63 | # raided hacked alive scam voluntary | |
| 64 | # 6 9 12 12 20 | |
| 65 | ||
| 66 | library(survival) | |
| 67 | summary(survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=black)) | |
| 68 | # time n.risk n.event survival std.err lower 95% CI upper 95% CI | |
| 69 | # 11 58 1 0.98276 0.017092 0.949823 1.00000 | |
| 70 | # 20 54 1 0.96456 0.024627 0.917479 1.00000 | |
| 71 | # 67 38 1 0.93918 0.034675 0.873615 1.00000 | |
| 72 | # 70 37 1 0.91379 0.042013 0.835050 0.99996 | |
| 73 | # 81 35 1 0.88768 0.048248 0.797983 0.98747 | |
| 74 | # 194 23 1 0.84909 0.059621 0.739919 0.97437 | |
| 75 | # 196 22 1 0.81049 0.068269 0.687151 0.95598 | |
| 76 | # 331 10 1 0.72945 0.098424 0.559938 0.95027 | |
| 77 | # 353 7 1 0.62524 0.128160 0.418378 0.93438 | |
| 78 | # 369 5 1 0.50019 0.151728 0.276014 0.90644 | |
| 79 | # 395 4 1 0.37514 0.157090 0.165105 0.85238 | |
| 80 | # 413 3 1 0.25010 0.146261 0.079489 0.78688 | |
| 81 | plot(survfit(Surv(Age, Alive, type="right") ~ 1, data=black)) | |
| 82 | # https://i.imgur.com/OamVzjO.png | |
| 83 | ||
| 84 | library(cmprsk) | |
| 85 | blackc <- with(black, cuminc(Age, Closure, cencode="alive")); blackc | |
| 86 | # Estimates and Variances: | |
| 87 | # $est | |
| 88 | # 200 400 600 800 | |
| 89 | # 1 hacked 0.1389819240 0.138981924 0.138981924 0.138981924 | |
| 90 | # 1 raided 0.0149253731 0.114655933 0.114655933 0.114655933 | |
| 91 | # 1 scam 0.2069723259 0.299188940 0.299188940 0.299188940 | |
| 92 | # 1 voluntary 0.2702539221 0.327633148 0.327633148 0.327633148 | |
| 93 | # | |
| 94 | # $var | |
| 95 | # 200 400 600 800 | |
| 96 | # 1 hacked 0.001900471515 0.00190047151 0.00190047151 0.00190047151 | |
| 97 | # 1 raided 0.000223039082 0.00212491076 0.00212491076 0.00212491076 | |
| 98 | # 1 scam 0.002707980885 0.00366455525 0.00366455525 0.00366455525 | |
| 99 | # 1 voluntary 0.003240020448 0.00383384036 0.00383384036 0.00383384036 | |
| 100 | ||
| 101 | # risk of shut down by cause: | |
| 102 | plot(blackc, lty=1, color=c(1:4), xlab="Days") | |
| 103 | # https://i.imgur.com/xZE8O5n.png |
