Batemem

The Cause of Black Crime?

Jun 28th, 2017
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  1. Vietnam:
  2. ~$6,900 GDP per capita (Purchasing Power Parity), according to the IMF
  3. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=73&pr.y=7&sy=2017&ey=2022&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=582&s=NGDPD%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC%2CLP&grp=0&a=
  4. Murder rate: 3.3/100,000 (2012 WHO Estimate)
  5. https://www.unodc.org/documents/gsh/pdfs/2014_GLOBAL_HOMICIDE_BOOK_web.pdf (page 128)
  6. Murder rate 1.425/100,000 (average from 2008-2011, UN Office on Drugs and Crime's International Homicide Statistics database): http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=VN&name_desc=true
  7.  
  8. Serbia:
  9. ~$15,000 GDP per capita (PPP), according to the IMF
  10. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=31&pr.y=9&sy=2013&ey=2017&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=942&s=NGDPD%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC%2CLP&grp=0&a=
  11. Murder rate of 1.2/100,000 (Eurostat/CTS)
  12. https://www.unodc.org/gsh/en/index.html (page 131)
  13.  
  14. Black Americans:
  15. ~$23,000 GDP per capita (PPP), according to an article presented by The Atlantic (a mainstream left-leaning outlet), citing IMF/US Census figures
  16. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/10/what-if-black-america-were-a-country/380953/
  17. Black Americans had a murder rate of 34.5/100,000 from 1980 to 2008
  18. https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf
  19. Black Americans 31 times more likely to be arrested for murder than a White American in NYC in 2014
  20. https://2kpcwh2r7phz1nq4jj237m22-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Color-Of-Crime-2016.pdf
  21. Black Americans generally do actually commit a disproportionate amount of crime: https://pastebin.com/AWEwBCFF
  22. Yes, even for drugs, Black Americans were more likely to lie about drug usage when surveyed:
  23. "intravenous drug users who were black or whose primary drugs of choice were injected cocaine and crack were more likely than other groups to misrepresent their current drug use status" http://corescholar.libraries.wright.edu/aids/21/
  24. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16600529
  25. http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/04/15/white-privilege-cops-and-courts/
  26.  
  27. Vietnam and Serbia both have a higher average IQ (94, 90 respectively) than average 85 IQ black Americans
  28. https://www.ttu.ee/public/m/mart-murdvee/EconPsy/2/Lynn_Meisenberg_2010_National_IQs_calculated_and_validated_for_108_nations.pdf (National average IQ)
  29. The average IQ score for Black Americans has been consistently upheld at within 1-2 points of 85, with slight differences between age groups (see https://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/30years/Rushton-Jensen30years.pdf).
  30.  
  31. Vietnam and Serbia have significantly lower crime rates, and significantly higher average IQ scores, despite the citizens of those nations being significantly more impoverished than Black Americans. The idea that Black Americans merely commit crimes because they are poor (and suffer from other similar disadvantages) is seriously called into question by the above data.
  32.  
  33. Note, if you believe these countries were "cherry picked", read the following for a more in-depth examination of the relationship between national income, rate of intentional homicide, and average IQ: https://pastebin.com/ku1eSGGg
  34. Instead of reading that discussion of those statistics, one can appreciate the same facts by referencing this map of intentional homicide by country:
  35. http://mecometer.com/image/worldmap-mono/intentional-homicides-worldbank.png
  36. And IQ by country:
  37. https://static.iq-research.info/20150809/img/iq_by_country.png
  38. Clearly, low-IQ individuals are more likely to engage in homicide. The correlation with low-IQ and crime is well known in the field of criminology, even if the causal mechanisms are disputed.
  39. Within the US, the average IQ of a state was inversely correlated with criminality
  40. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886909005169
  41. Within the US, county-level IQ was inversely correlated with criminality (i.e. lower IQ correlated with more crime)
  42. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289610001340
  43. Criminals have an average IQ of 92 "8 points below the mean" (in the US, 1998)
  44. https://www.ncjrs.gov/App/publications/abstract.aspx?ID=183065
  45. IQ has been found to be inversely correlated with criminality by numerous other studies
  46. http://law.jrank.org/pages/1363/Intelligence-Crime-Measuring-size-IQ-crime-correlation.html
  47.  
  48. In contrast to the narrative of "White Privilege" and "institutional discrimination", when controlling for IQ (AFQT scores are a proxy for IQ), there is no statistically significant difference between the likelihood of equally poor whites and blacks to escape poverty.
  49. See Figure 13 from a Pew Trusts report: http://i.imgur.com/dovVqbq.png
  50. http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/uploadedfiles/pcs_assets/2012/empreportsupward20intergen20mobility2008530pdf.pdf
  51. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/MG265/images/webG1471.pdf (AFQT to IQ conversions)
  52. http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/01/us-economic-mobility-data.html (Credit to this article for drawing attention to this Pew Trusts report. The link to the 2014 Pew Trusts report died, but the same report is linked above "pewtrusts.org/~/media/legacy/ etc.)
  53. In the event that Pew moves the link again, and the link referenced here is dead, an archived version is available here:
  54. https://archive.is/MlVS3
  55.  
  56. The institutional racism that clearly exists is decidedly in favor of nonwhites, especially blacks:
  57. "It is clear that the elite universities in the United States are discriminating against whites in an extreme manner, to the point where whites... are strictly underrepresented relative to their percentage of the population. By their population, they should be 55% of the people at these Universities, and by their merit should be around 72%. But admissions officers have made sure that their average student body is only 44.35% white."
  58. http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/12/17/affirmative-action/
  59. Note this was an analysis of the top 20 elite universities, not the average university in the nation.
  60.  
  61. To uphold politically correct beliefs, the temptation is to then claim that IQ is a result, not an innate cause of Socio-Economic Status (SES).
  62. "It is sometimes claimed that IQ is just a proxy for SES (Socioeconomic Status): high IQ kids are merely the beneficiaries of better home environments, and correlations between IQ and life outcomes are merely a proxy for correlations between childhood environment and outcomes. Of course, this claim does not address the significant variations in IQ within families. Does IQ have predictive power once SES is controlled for? The answer is obvious from anecdotal experience: we all know siblings who, by definition, shared the same family SES, but with different IQs and life outcomes.
  63.  
  64. Vanderbilt psychologist David Lubinski sent me a recent paper addressing this issue -- Cognitive Epidemiology: With emphasis on untangling cognitive ability and socioeconomic status, Intelligence 37 (2009) 625-633. Among the figures is the following one, based on NLSY longitudinal data (the analysis was originally done by Charles Murray). It compares life outcomes of paired siblings (one of each pair required to be in the "normal" reference range of IQ), thereby controlling for SES. As you can see, IQ has a strong impact on education, earnings and social status even after family SES is controlled for. (Click for larger version of figure.)
  65. http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_o6vigEr23C4/S6ulte9qo5I/AAAAAAAAAfE/JOSviPZtBAs/s400/siblings.jpg (See picture for reference)
  66.  
  67. Similar analysis (http://www.wfu.edu/provost/rethinkingadmissions/docs/presenters/kuncel.pdf) shows that the correlation between SAT scores and college grades only decreases slightly when SES is controlled for. See also related post on non-shared environmental effects.
  68.  
  69. Below is a useful SES-SAT (or SES-IQ) syllogism, well supported by the studies at the two links above.
  70.  
  71. SES does not cause SAT (weakly at most). ***
  72. SES does not predict college success, SAT does."
  73. http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2010/03/ses-and-iq.html
  74. Infoproc is the blog of theoretical physicist Stephen Hsu, graduate of Caltech
  75.  
  76. Relevant to the above article, SAT scores are strongly correlated with IQ https://www.psychologicalscience.org/pdf/ps/Frey.pdf?origin=publication_detail
  77.  
  78.  
  79. Also importantly, in the US, the longitudinal data again undermines any proposed causal link with poverty and crime. If there is a causal link, as poverty increases, crime should increase, as poverty decreases, crime should decrease, hence the need to examine data over time.
  80. There does not appear to be any such long-term correlation, though you can look at a single period in time and show a weak correlation:
  81. http://i2.wp.com/thealternativehypothesis.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/9.png?zoom=1.75&resize=601%2C290 (Property Crime vs. Poverty Rate over time)
  82. http://i1.wp.com/thealternativehypothesis.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/10.png?zoom=1.75&resize=601%2C289 (Violent Crime vs. Poverty Rate over time)
  83. "This evidence coheres well with a review of 28 studies in the Handbook of Crime Correlates which found that the majority of studies showed that crime actually rises when the economy improves."
  84. http://store.elsevier.com/Handbook-of-Crime-Correlates/Lee-Ellis/isbn-9780123736123/
  85. http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/07/17/re-why-do-black-people-commit-more-crime/
  86.  
  87. "Land, McCall, and Cohen 1990 collected data on the homicide rates of cities, standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs), and states for the years 1960, 1970, and 1980. In each year they included all 50 states and every city and SMSA included in the census. They then looked at how well the following 11 variables predicted crime variation between these areas: population size, population density, percent black, percentage aged between 15 and 29, percent divorced, percent of kids without two parents, median family income, the poverty rate, income inequality, the unemployment rate, and whether or not the city/SMSA/State was in the south. All of these variables were entered into a single regression model, meaning that the estimated effect size for each variable held all other 10 variables constant. This analysis thus produced 9 total models explaining crime variation in cities, SMSAs, and states, across 3 decades. Across these 9 models, race was a better predictor of homicide than unemployment, poverty, and median income, in 7, or 78%, cases, and a better predictor than income inequality in 8, or 89%, cases. Thus, over 3 decades of very large data sets, race was pretty consistently a better predictor of homicide rates than economic variables were.
  88. http://www.udel.edu/soc/faculty/parker/SOCI836_S08_files/Landetal_AJS90.pdf (Link to study)
  89.  
  90. Kposowa, Breault, and Harrison 1995 analyzed crime variation across 2,078 U.S counties. As can be seen below (standardized beta coefficients are under the “beta” column), the percent of the population that is black was a stronger explanatory variable than poverty, income inequality (gini), and unemployment, for explaining variation in both property and violent crime."
  91. http://i2.wp.com/thealternativehypothesis.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/2-5.png?w=456 (Chart)
  92. http://www.jstor.org/stable/591624?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents (Link to study)
  93. "Rushton and Templer 2009 which looked at national variation in crime. They found that skin color, a proxy for race, was more strongly correlated than national income with homicide (.25 vs .17), rape (.24 vs .10), and serious assault (.20 vs .09)."
  94. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289609000592 (Link to study)
  95. http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/04/15/race-poverty-and-crime/ (Link to article for two above quotes)
  96.  
  97. Another temptation is to write off IQ tests altogether, but IQ tests show impressive validity in measuring relative intelligence differences, and in predicting important life outcomes
  98. http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/04/15/the-validity-of-iq/ (for validity of IQ)
  99.  
  100. Blacks have a lower average IQ than Whites, even when looking at the wealthiest Blacks; "Whites from families with incomes of less than $10,000 had a mean SAT score of 993. This is 129 points higher than the national mean for all blacks... Blacks from families with incomes of more than $100,000 had a mean SAT score that was 85 points below the mean score for whites from all income levels, 139 points below the mean score of whites from families at the same income level, and 10 points below the average score of white students from families whose income was less than $10,000" (Black Journal of Higher Education, 2005 http://www.jbhe.com/features/49_college_admissions-test.html).
  101.  
  102. To summarize the information established here:
  103. -Black Americans are approximately thirty times more likely to commit murder than significantly poorer Whites (Serbians) and East Asians (Vietnamese) (depending on the accuracy of the 2012 WHO estimate of Vietnam's murder rate, perhaps only ~10 times higher); Blacks actually do commit a staggering amount of crime, they are not merely being arrested for crimes that white people committed because the police, judges, and juries are all extraordinarily anti-black racists (to suggest otherwise would be especially ludicrous in majority-black areas).
  104. -When controlling for IQ (AFQT scores), there is no significant difference in the likelihood of poor Whites and poor Blacks to escape poverty
  105. -The institutional racism which officially and clearly exists is decidedly in favor of blacks and nonwhites, both in university admissions and corporate/government hiring
  106. -Within families (shared SES), IQ is still a major predictor of which siblings are likely to have the greatest academic and economic success, undermining the idea that IQ is merely an affect of childhood environment/parental SES, and all subsequent effects of "IQ" are just a measure of the advantages of childhood environment.
  107. -Controlling for SES barely affects the correlation with SAT scores and college grades (SAT is .82 correlated with IQ); essentially, IQ continues to predict academic performance, even after controlling for SES, under the theory that IQ is merely an artifact of SES, all correlation between SAT scores and success should disappear when SES is controlled for.
  108. -There is no long-term correlation between poverty rate and violent/property crime rate in the U.S.
  109. -According to multiple studies which used regression analyses to look at the affects of different variables in isolation, "race was a better predictor of homicide than unemployment, poverty, and median income, in 7, or 78%, cases, and a better predictor than income inequality in 8, or 89%, cases. Thus, over 3 decades of very large data sets, race was pretty consistently a better predictor of homicide rates than economic variables were."
  110. -IQ tests are a better predictor of job performance than experience, years of education, reference checks, integrity tests, and several other measures (http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2016/04/15/the-validity-of-iq)
  111. -Black students from the wealthiest families ($200,000+/year) score significantly lower on SAT tests than even the poorest Whites (less than $10,000 annually).
  112.  
  113. Given the above information, racial differences in IQ, as a result of genetic differences, are likely a far more significant cause of the propensity towards crime in black populations than any environmental factor (culture, poverty, family structure, "discrimination", etc.)
  114. For further reading: http://thealternativehypothesis.org/index.php/2017/01/07/race-and-iq-the-case-for-genes/
  115.  
  116. A final addendum about crime more broadly.
  117. "Within five years of release, about three-quarters (76.6 percent) of released prisoners were rearrested." https://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/Pages/welcome.aspx
  118. "Over 9 in 10 State prisons provided educational programs for their inmates"
  119. "Half of State prison inmates reported they had participated in an educational program since their most recent admission to prison" (https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/ecp.pdf)
  120. Given how high recidivism rates are among prisoners, despite serious efforts to educate them, keeping violent criminals in jail for a long time makes a great deal of sense.
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