pyxxy's outside perspective on "gunboat with EOG expectation" aka game #1

pyxxy's outside perspective on "gunboat with EOG expectation" aka game #1:

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 month ago
Only notes of interesting things will be written

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 month ago
S01:
Unusual opening for Austria, sending VIE to BUD. Offering an A/R?
Germany does the “cover my butt” opening, but with no northern Russian opening, there’s little reason for the British to bounce Ruhr.
Italy has no heard the good word of VEN -> PIE, ROM -> VEN, NAP -> ION. Which is fine, but a convoy to TUN against an A/R might go badly.

Turkey has clearly read BrotherBored, airhorn noise

Thinking of the fall, if I’m Germany, I think I bounce Russia. England has shown good faith towards an E/G and with France only getting 1 build (assuming PIE taps MAR, otherwise BUR could chance for BEL), Germany is going to be in the driver’s seat in the north. No reason not to make Scandinavia easier to capture.
Russia could double support UKR into RUM and that would be fine. Keep GAL for the positioning. Given the Lepanto, an A/R could work, but might want to wait and see what the fall brings.
Turkey could consider sending ANK to CON, but given BLA is likely to open up this turn and an A/R is on the table…don’t to that. Take BLA. Maybe offer support to Serbia though…or tap Serbia. Take a stand this turn.
Austria should cover VIE because it’s much harder to retake than BUD. But that’s also the obvious play.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 month ago
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A01:
Good decision Germany. Setting up to take Belgium next year too.
Russia might be accepting the A/R? I can’t quite tell. Turkey did what I explicitly said not to, and opened themselves up to Russia. And see how awkward Turkey’s build is! Nothing quite makes sense and F CON is trapped defending BUL.
I think Russia can build A SEV and start the attack. But if they had given a real signal to Austria…they might have more success next year. I’m not sure that Austria will still want to ally with a non-committal Russia. If I was Austria, I might play it slow and see if I can get Russia to leave GAL by choice, then spring an attack or hopefully an A/I.
France bouncing the channel again is questionable. Having a second fleet against a clearly aggressive England is much more useful than preventing the channel, since it will take a year for England’s fleet to get to the same positions anyway (LVP to IRI, support LON to ENG) since you can build F BRE and cut ENG over and over. Just a much better defensive position.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 month ago
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S02:
Russia did not accept the A/R. England walks into Sweden. Russia actually tried to support DEN to SWE, which is interesting. France's moves were good for the position, not sure I can really critique, other than it's hard to pick up POR now.
Austria signals peace with Turkey again? Well, are they going to take Venice in the fall? It's not the worst decision, tbh, having gotten into GAL this turn. And France is under enough pressure from the E/G that Italy leaving PIE won't matter that much.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 month ago
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A02:
Italy guards Venice! I think that's actually pretty reasonable. France does the convoy play, which is alright. I think I would have argued for covering BRE instead of blocking BUR, but maybe it's better positioning if you guess that Italy is about to leave you alone?
Austria, you cannot be friendly with both Italy and Turkey. This is not press. It's vastly more important to show your allegiance with your moves rather than supports. So far you have shown yourself to be wishywashy and Ukranian, for some reason. Commit to taking BUL next year. You can still be Turkey's friends after you take BUL.
Italy, this is why some people look down on gunboat Lepanto. You're stuck. Turkey is full against you and that leaves you unable to do anything besides defend ION. A/R will benefit the most from this (if Austria gets their act together). Or the south will be in turmoil all game and E/G will decide the path forward. Best advice is...try taking EAS so that Austria can take BUL next year. That's the only way to progress against Turkey here.
Germany. Double army. BER heads to PRU, convoy KIE to LIV, set up the attack on Russia. Try to confirm WAR or PAR next year. If you can, reposition in the fall to start stabbing England. I think a 3 center France is fine, but they do have mostly armies, so you might want to wait another year for 2 centers? Except StP is going to fall next year and you want to preempt that build being used against you.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 month ago
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W02:
Germany has built a third fleet which should mean war with England. France convoys back to GAS, try to bounce BUR with supported MAR again. No reason to risk losing PAR. England should immediately make peace with France and send BRE to the channel. Keep IRI in place (support hold MAO with it). Next part is tricky.
Germany is likely to try and make peace with Russia, supporting them into NWY. I don’t think StP is moving this turn though. I expect KIE to HEL and BAL to DEN (with support from SWE). Bouncing KIE saves spending two fleets to hold NTH in the fall, but it leaves F LON in a lurch. I think sending NTH to SKA is the right play here, along with FIN to NWY. This lets you shift LON and threaten DEN/SWE/NWY in the fall. But all-around is a tough spot.
Austria should shift TRI to cover VIE, don’t accept the A/T yet, use UKR to support an attack on RUM from…SER?
Russia, do not assume that Germany is friendly now, even with their shift to fighting England. Focus on defending the south and waiting for Turkey to break out. Shift GoB into StP and send StP to LIV, for flexibility and kicking out Austria from either WAR or MOS in the fall.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 month ago
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S03:
I super disagree with England letting Germany get away with this, and with Germany somehow not attacking England. Neither truly makes sense in the long-term. Honestly, Germany had the advantage, but if England stabs now, it’s an easy place in the draw for the British. Please stab, for the love of god. You’re in MAO now. There’s no better time.
France does a decent defense. We see the pain of convoying to POR here. Fair assessment that BUR was going to be taken by Germany with excessive force, I guess? Or rather, if you expected Germany to turn on England, setting up to take BRE is the better play, so this is correct.
100% agree with Austria’s decision to force RUM. Makes their place much more secure. Just need to start worrying about Italy now. You need to get them a center somehow. Or take BUL and signal to give them GRE. They’re going to get impatient.
Obviously I disagree with Germany’s decisions here. But if you’re going to attack Russia, send Munich east! You can afford to bounce in BUR again, because you don’t actually want France to give more centers to England (before you secure WAR).
Russia’s defense was reasonable, gave the option to retreat to FIN if StP bounced, and I agree that unlikely for Austria to try for MOS.
England. Stab Germany. Please. Italy, clear out EAS.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  29 days ago
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A03/W03:
What a messy mutual stab. I don’t like it. If you can’t guarantee two centers, why stab? You could have done it in the spring, when Germany’s build clearly declared war on you (England)!
If I was England, and I didn’t stab in the spring, I would have played it innocent this year and keep attacking France. If you look at Germany’s fall moves, they’re actually not that aggressive and only work if England stabs.
Props to France for surviving for now. I don’t think I agree with Russia’s disband. BLA was much more crucial for holding back Austria. Germany signaled tolerance with the bounce in SIL. Next year you could have supported PRU -> SIL (malicious support) and kept WAR in place to guard UKR later.
I think convoying to ALB was needlessly antagonistic, and with double fleets in the Med, why do it? You’re stuck guarding VEN forever anyway. South is a mess. Italy should have moved into ADR rather than convoy if they wanted to attack Austria this coming year.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  28 days ago
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S04:
Austria actually accepted the A/T. Hm. Not sure that’s the best play, but with Italy being so stubborn, I understand.
If I was France, I guess I would wait one more year before retaking BRE? England has the fleets necessary to fight Germany for long enough for me (France) to recover and push back through BUR. Retaking it now would unnecessarily weaken England. I can just tap PIC and RUH this fall and be content, and if England loses centers I would expect them to disband BRE anyway.
Germany has a force around NTH covering EDI vs. support holding HOL. I think I would tap NAO with NWG, to hold it in place, because England in NWG would be really annoying. Then I would do NWY to NTH supported by DEN. The hope is that England sees that NTH has to cover, does so, and tries to use BEL to cover NTH. This would capture NTH without a pesky English retreat to SKA (or elsewhere). SIL covers MUN. RUH -> HOL supported by KIE. PIC cuts BEL. This moveset would be guaranteed net-zero centers but huge positioning if the NTH capture works.
Italy is screwed. Never should have convoyed to ALB. Austria shouldn’t even force ALB to disband because it would let Italy rebuild and defend better. Austria should focus on GAL, maybe WAR, hopefully SEV, and then stabbing Turkey.
Turkey should go wild and be a huge nuisance with their ION fleet. Russia should play to defend GAL at the cost of losing WAR to a greedy (idiot) Germany.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  27 days ago
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A04/retreats:
Yeah see, this is why I had NWG to NAO! So much better not to deal with the NTH retreat.
This A/T is really happening, huh. I guess Russia is doing the right thing by attacking Austria. Wow I do not like Turkey convoying their army away. Look at where Russia is now! You could have turned into an easy Juggernaut?
In one sense, if Austria really is committed to the A/T, that’s when I strongly felt that forcing ALB to disband was a bad play. But if Austria is actually playing smart and seeing that R/T may form while they are distracted with Italy, then disbanding ALB makes sense because it resets the A/I relationship (to an extent). But this means the move to TYR….is not consistent.
France’s decision to retake BRE but support hold BEL is…smart. I love it. It makes way more sense to guarantee that England still holds BEL, because if you can help defend BEL for another year or two, that protects both your own defense in BUR and slows down Germany from snowballing off England’s centers so quickly. It might actually save France from just having to accept a German board top. It’s gonna be close. I’m intrigued what the next year will hold.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  24 days ago
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S05 retreats:
Austria’s intensions are deliciously opaque, like the foam that obscures the body of the pint. Of course, they’re in no position to attack Italy now. That was the downside of their play. Turkey appears to have interpreted the forced disband of ALB as a signal of A/I reunification, which I said might happen.
Russia could potentially pull back….and it might be the smart thing to do, since Austria will almost certainly go after them. But I will say, weakening Turkey might get Italy to consider an I/R, one of the rarest gunboat alliances, since the spoils of Turkey will be partially claimed before Italy can get a piece.
In the north, England’s moves were not good. Retreating to SKA was questionable, to start. But to do so and to not attack Scandinavia? You need to consider that Germany has already tactically outplayed you and thus will continue to outplay you. You need to play defensive and give them less chances to out-think you (see: yomi) by moving backwards and guarding your island while France powers up and pushes Germany back. Your game was to focus on staying on 3 centers for as long as possible, since BEL was in France’s hands. SKA did not help that plan.
France, no complaints. I think you could have signaled an alliance to England, because who cares if you’re going to stab them in a year anyway? No one is going to critique your lie. Otherwise just shift MAO into PIC or something. Or just send it to NAO. Doing nothing was pointless because Germany ultimately doesn’t need to care about your loyalty. They can roll you over if they get most of England. You need to either get more of England or start taking dots from Germany.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  20 days ago
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S06:
Woops, missed a turn again. Germany building army is correct because France is the real threat now. Russia had ANK for free but because of that, rotating SEV into ARM was also free! Yes it’s a risk with Austria moving, which you guessed to counter, but you just signaled support for Austria, have some faith maybe? And the reward of letting you rebuild F SEV would have been amazing. Guaranteed to get most of Turkey.
I actually think France building an army here might be a mistake. You need to compete with Germany on the high seas for the rest of the game, BUR is a chokehold and you don’t need more than 3 armies to stalemate it. England doesn’t care if you are signaling friendship any more because they’re too busy collapsing on their mainland. With another fleet you could have threatened LVP and just set yourself up for convoying to the island or whatever. Might have been nice.
If Italy is feeling brave, they could risk an austria assault again. Might cause an A/R though. But I don’t think Italy is going to majorly profit from continuing to attack Turkey. Russia has already positioned themselves to take the centers that Italy would normally get in an A/I.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  19 days ago
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A06:
What did I say! Italy should reconsider the attack on Austria! Look how well it would have gone! You could even slip into GRE if Turkey was convinced that you were on their side. But, it’s important to consider that it would not guaranteed a center, and it’s possible that you might want Austria to be more stab-able before committing to the attack…..again.
I’m not sure that harassing France was the right decision, though. You need them strong enough to slow down Germany, or potentially lock horns for a few years while you wait to either stab Austria or grow from attacking Turkey. Now, if you sent the fleets west as well, that’s a different story. I actually didn’t think about that in the spring, which is a mistake on my part. There’s something to be gained from cutting the French right in the knees with Med invasion. You won’t get punished by Turkey any time soon and Austria would be busy fighting Russia. Might have been nice.
Back to reality. This turn, I would convoy to SMY. If you’re committed to attacking Turkey, you don’t want them regaining ANK, because it’s much more likely that you take it off Russia’s hands in the future than rip it away from Turkey. This also beats the guess where AEG covers GRE and SMY covers the SYR convoy, which wouldn’t be a bad guess from the Turk.
France, cover MAR and just deal with that nonsense later. Might ruin your game though. Which sucks. Just slows you down too much to do anything other than survive in the stalemate line.
Germany, you’re doing fine, finish off England. England, good luck, you’re getting read like patch notes, over and over and over again. Flip a coin this turn when making decisions. Switch it up. Although it’s mostly too late.
Russia, you’re SOL. Take GAL as a delaying tactic, maybe Austria harasses Germany if you’re lucky. But it’s not looking good.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  17 days ago
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S07:
Wow I disagree with Russia’s disband of UKR. Good god. Germany’s fleet makes sense, 4 is enough to defeat France. Austrian army never hurts. They should start thinking about stabbing Italy in a year or so. This year would only net VEN, which is nice, but maybe not quite enough considering Turkey is on 4 centers still? Unsure.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  16 days ago
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A07:
Russia is playing in their feelings. Smart moves from the Austrian. They need to make sure to occupy one of their home centers in the fall, so that Austria is “forced” to build in TRI, and then go for the stab. Germany should force ENG at the expense of LVP, cover EDI and SWE too, I think?

(as of 2020-02-12?)  15 days ago
(I misread the tactics on the island, Germany smartly picked up ENG and defended LVP)

(as of 2020-02-12?)  10 days ago
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S08:
Austria’s stab makes sense. Good luck pulling it off. Germany might mess around with you. Russia continues to act like a moron. Austria, make sure that you have enough open centers to use all your builds. Consider sending WAR to SIL to guarantee that Germany respects your space, and cut MOS with UKR.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  10 days ago
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A08:
Austria, good job keeping centers open. Another fleet will do nicely. I guess I didn’t think about taking MOS vs. Russia retreating there if you left WAR. Russia clearly saw that Germany might support them into WAR. A surprising amount of foresight for that country, considering their play all game. I still think Germany should consider sending a unit to mess with Austria, or they will be the solo threat this game.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  2 hours ago
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W08:
Good on Austria to build another fleet. I would have considered building A VIE and attacking Germany, since they’re the other solo threat on this board and you’ll likely overpower Italy in a few years.
France rebuilding a fleet is smart. Opens the option to try and make the draw in Tunis. Russia, there might have been more value to disbanding Ankara, given it’s a dead center. With two units you might have been able to force Sweden and another center. Even just Sweden is alright. It’s a rough spot.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 hour ago
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S09:
Austria should set up to take StP. I would consider attempting a convoy to Naples. That forces Italy to kick you out of ION while also forcing APU to cover NAP or bounce you in ADR. SEV slips around to ARM and then you can support Russia or Turkey into SMY.
Germany should move into NWY so that they can support hold Russia in StP in the fall and slow Austria’s solo snowball. LVP covers EDI, IRI stays to protect LVP. Maybe cut GAS with BUR? Since it’s unlikely that you’ll actually end up stuck there. Take BRE with PIC and backfill it with BEL. MAO should move to WES and establish yourself behind the stalemate line. MUN should cover KIE because I think you will bounce England and Austria has shown no interesting in harassing you yet.
Italy, give up on attacking Turkey. Bounce ADR. Retake ION. Let A SMY disband next fall. Support Turkey into Ankara and try to re-grow a threat for Austria. Maybe even block off ARM? Since SEV will certainly move there.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 hour ago
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A09:
Good. People mostly “listened” this year, except Italy. And Italy is screwed now. Armies conquer Italy! Prevent Austrian armies from being able to attack you! Bounce ADR!
PAR is guaranteed for Germany. ENG support hold BRE. Not sure why France didn’t move MAR to SPA? Yes it was a risk, but your survival does not depend on keeping MAR at this point.
Austria should consider tapping WES with TUN. It’s much more important to slow Germany down more than to crush Italy faster, as it seems like you’ll be able to secure TUN in another year or two. Maybe support hold SMY? Just to be obnoxious. And make sure to leave TRI open for building another fleet in the winter.

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 hour ago
W09/S10:
Builds seem fine. Another Germany fleet is rough, but with France and England messing around still in the north, it’s probably correct.
Austria should give up on StP and go after Germany’s home centers. Honestly they should have done it last fall. One army in Moscow can hold that line forever, because Russia can’t trust Germany not to slide into StP if they leave it. But whatever, head to PRU this spring. Also, ignore finishing off Italy and send those armies to attack MUN!
Germany has an easy setup to finish off England this year, provided that the French fleet in NAO doesn’t intervene. Which maybe it should? Doesn’t seem like France is going to be able to turtle in their home centers, so, yeah. I would consider moving to SIL and rotating BUR back to defend MUN. KIE stays in place. Could even send BUR to RUH and rotate PAR into BUR, since France’s armies are all gone. (edited)

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 hour ago
A10:
Oh, Austria. I think some inexperience is showing. Which is good! That’s the point of these games, to get better!
Germany is the rival solo threat and has most of the north locked down, along with StP eventually going their way. You need to go attack them, because you need to buy time to finish off T/R/I in what once was Turkey.
Or it’s possible that your chance at a solo is already gone. Yeah actually, since StP is long-term guaranteed, TUN would be the 18th centers (similar to a French solo threat, actually), so really you need to either attack MUN or lock down TUN. Germany moved accordingly. You should be able to take a hint about what Germany is worried about, maybe?

(as of 2020-02-12?)  1 hour ago
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Speed round for 1911 and 1912:
Yeah this is just inexperience on Austria’s part. Not much else to say. Notice how WAR was the 19th center! So defending Italy in TUN or just taking and holding TUN sooner was the actual correct play.