Ladies and Gentlemen, CaptainJack

@[e]
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-08/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-is-a-real-threat-to-hi...
+Suncloud
Trump will never win the general election.
+pheno
there is no poll
+CaptainJack
Never say never.
He could be the next POTUS
+Suncloud
No, he cannot.
+CaptainJack
But then, so could Hillary or Bernie
Very sad state of affairs, all shit people.
+Suncloud
The actual electoral landscape combined with demographics make it virtually impossible for him to win.
+CaptainJack
Why do you think it is so certain he cannot?
+Suncloud
So, in the leadup to 2012 election a lot of polls had it a horse race
And the national vote ended up being reasonably close, I believe
And FiveThirtyEight never gave Obama less than a 99% chance of winning
+CaptainJack
Do you think Trump is entirely politics as usual?
+Suncloud
And he won with like 320 electoral votes
I think Trump is similar to George Wallace
+CaptainJack
I think he's tapped into a whole lot of anger .. and that could get him elected.
+Suncloud
Anger at what?
False threats from international terrorism which is actually non-existant?
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+CaptainJack
Do you disagree?
+Suncloud
Not getting enough respect with the world's largest military?
ⓘ Debates set mode +l 62
+CaptainJack
You dont think his base represents a whole lot of anger - no matter how misplaced or wrongly fueld?
*fueled
+Suncloud
I think Americans are angry over extremely unclear reasonso
Most of which are unsupported by data
That is, they're fabrications/delusions
+CaptainJack
So do you think my base statement is mainly correct or ..?
161524 <+CaptainJack> I think he's tapped into a whole lot of anger .. and that could get him  elected.
+Suncloud
I think that Trump currently has some support in the polls, due to the anger and fear of Americans without a data-driven worldview, yes
+CaptainJack
Ok
+Suncloud
I think that the predictive value of these polls is around r^2 < 0.10
That data has been presented by FiveThirtyEight on the value of polling this far out
Based off history
+CaptainJack
And do you think his campaign is representing politics as normal? That it will be as predictable as other campaigns?
+Suncloud
I think the electoral college virtually prevents Trump from winning
Combined with his unfavorable ratings
+CaptainJack
I think that Trump is a shining ass weasel.
+Suncloud
CaptainJack: I think that he is somewhat unsual, but not unseen
Media likes horseraces
So, every year, they tell the narrative of a horse race
+CaptainJack
I think that we have yet to see how he will handle a general campaign rather than a primary campaign.
+Suncloud
The data does not support this narrative
You need 270 electoral votes to win
Obama had like 255 virtually guaranteed going in
Above 99% for those 255
There was never any chance of Romney winning
+Darrel
it did seem as though Trump or Hillary would get voted
+Suncloud
But that doesn't make for a fun election cycle
+CaveGuy
what yall think about Trump kicking out the Muslim Lady??
so American of him huh
+ForexTrader
yes super american
+Suncloud
She was protesting him, right?
+CaptainJack
Well, gotta hand it to you Lania. I was not certain at first it was you, this time. Why did you remove me from ignore finally?
+CaveGuy
makes me sick
+Suncloud
He's a dickhead. Also, parts of the media misrepresent him.
+Dreams2X_
asshole move...just did it for his base
+ForexTrader
i respect her courage
+Suncloud
CaptainJack: I think it's important for you to move past memories of past conflicts
I encourage you to meet me in the present
+CaveGuy
I doubt he get much of the Muslim vote
+CaptainJack
Nah, I think it's important for you to not be a dick.
+Dreams2X_
she was wearing a hijab....   silently
@[e]
bahh i seen the whole thing, that muslimcouple were looking to be noticed and kicked out
+CaptainJack
162058 <+CaveGuy> what yall think about Trump kicking out the Muslim Lady?? < Where and when?
+CaveGuy
this was a lone lady in Charlotte i think
+ForexTrader
media isnt reporting it muuch
not much coverage
looks like media is on trump side
+Suncloud
A woman protested his campaigning.
Also, she was a Muslim.
@[e]
the focus was on her but there was a male also
+Suncloud
Therefore, the media is leveraging this story.
+Darrel
what is yall qaeuda mean?
+CaveGuy
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/08/politics/donald-trump-muslim-woman-protesting-ejected/
+Suncloud
"protesting"
+ForexTrader
she didnt protest.... she had t-shirt "im muslim, i come in peace"
@[e]
darrel its a cheese and salsa dip?
+Suncloud
CaveGuy: remember when Code Pink interrupted Obama's press conference
And Obama let one of the ladies speak for about 60 seconds, during his press conference
Then, he started talking and she started talking again
@[e]
she stoop up and waved her arms till she was noticed
+Suncloud
'Free speech is about talking, but it's also about listening'
She was ejected from that press conference
@[e]
stood^
+Suncloud
Because she was dominating the entire event
And I think that ejection was reasonable
@[e]
she prolly was a sanders plant
+Suncloud
Do you think Obama ejected her because he's against women?
All women, everywhere
As evidence by this one press conference
It's dumb, right
And if you think that, then you'd cite other behaviors and statements
So, then, just cite those
+ForexTrader
Suncloud dominating?  how
+Suncloud
As you can do with Trump
ForexTrader: she would not allow anybody else to speak
+ForexTrader
haha
+Suncloud
It was a famous event
+ForexTrader
i get it, sarcasm.
+Suncloud
Obama handled it masterfully
ForexTrader: it appears you have conflated two stories
+CaptainJack
Obama is godlike, right?
+Suncloud
I can only imagine what view of this conversation you actually have
CaptainJack: that is a fallacy
It's not clear to when you collapse because of past conversations
+CaptainJack
A fallacy? Or an observation that the left fawns over that fuckwaste every chance they get?
+Suncloud
"the left"
The entire left is now on trial
Because of a comment Suncloud made
Hence, fallacy
I am not a Democrat.
+CaptainJack
No, sorry you cant grok between the lines.
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+Suncloud
Two, I am for the arrest of Obama for war crimes.
You groked wrong.
Obama's drone policies violate international laws.
+CaptainJack
Suck my grok, Suncloud
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+Suncloud
And make him a war criminal.
Ignoring CaptainJack!*@*
+Darrel
if u want more money then the soln is to raise the debt ceiling and increase QE
+Suncloud
It is unlikely you will ever be able to stop this conflict orientation you have towards me.
I put you on ignore.
You're in a chatroom, trying to identify secret enemies from the past, settling scores.
It's embarassing