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DoubleDiamondTime: Effects of Russian Propaganda

JaysonSunshine
Mar 2nd, 2018
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  1. KiwiIRC
  2. DALnet14#atheism0#christiandebate119
  3. http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2018/03/02/tn-lt-gov-urges-voters-to-reject-candidate-because-shes-a-dangerous-atheist/
  4. 7:00:37 PM→ SimpleJak has joined
  5. 7:00:37 PMⓘ https://www.voanews.com/a/christian-blasphemy-suspect-in-pakistan-jumps-from-building-to-escape-tort...
  6. 7:00:37 PM@atheismwho opped me?
  7. 7:00:53 PMⓘ sexb set mode -o atheism
  8. 7:00:57 PMeelatedy'all need some zooz
  9. 7:01:02 PMeelatedhttps://youtu.be/IMyqasy2Lco
  10. 7:01:03 PMpela-[YouTube]- [( Too Many Zooz - "Bedford" )] [Uploader: Too Many Zooz Band] [Duration: 5:23] [Views: 2450915]
  11. 7:01:07 PM@sexbo
  12. 7:01:15 PM Ignoring sexb!*@*
  13. 7:01:20 PMatheismwho deopped me?
  14. 7:01:22 PMSimpleJakatheism: As an operator, I recommend you modify the topic.
  15. 7:01:31 PMSimpleJakThe topic has small scope.
  16. 7:01:32 PMⓘ sexb set mode +o atheism
  17. 7:01:39 PMSimpleJakThe topics should aim to be national or international level topics.
  18. 7:01:59 PM@atheismsomeone tell lania I have him on ignore
  19. 7:02:03 PM Ignoring atheism!*@*
  20. 7:03:00 PMDoubleDiamondTimeLOL, okay, thanks
  21. 7:03:31 PMSimpleJakThis channel is not particularly successful.
  22. 7:03:32 PMDoubleDiamondTimeso basically any crime involving a "marginalized identity" is technically a hate crime
  23. 7:03:35 PMDoubleDiamondTimebecause "justice is blind"
  24. 7:03:41 PMSimpleJakFalse.
  25. 7:03:57 PMDoubleDiamondTimethis is exactly what the paleoconservatives in the 90s warned against, and now it's actually come to pass
  26. 7:03:58 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Are you discussing federal hate crimes statutes in the context of the USA?
  27. 7:04:48 PMDoubleDiamondTimebomb threat and domestic violence, respectively
  28. 7:04:56 PMDoubleDiamondTimeis that so crazy?
  29. 7:05:01 PMSimpleJakThe federal standard is quite stringent.
  30. 7:05:20 PMSimpleJakFor example, a federal hate crimes investigation was opened on George Zimmerman's killing of Trayvon Martin.
  31. 7:05:30 PMDoubleDiamondTimesbalneav, i'd be willing to bet money that the "hate crime" caveat will be dropped for the jew
  32. 7:05:40 PMSimpleJakThe FBI investigated Zimmerman's past and concluded he did not have a history of racist actions or speech towards 'African-Americans'.
  33. 7:05:56 PMSimpleJakAnd so they concluded there was insufficient evidence to warrant a federal hate crimes indictment.
  34. 7:06:14 PMSimpleJakApologies for being smart.
  35. 7:06:26 PMSimpleJakIt will render non-smart views visible.
  36. 7:06:35 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, did you have a point?
  37. 7:06:57 PMSimpleJakFor those humans who have non-smart views -- especially for biased reason -- that attach their identity to their views, this will be painful.
  38. 7:07:00 PMSimpleJakYes.
  39. 7:07:59 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, what was your point?
  40. 7:08:06 PMSimpleJakCalling somebody "the jew" in the context of an ostensive analysis on paleoconservative commentary on overreach by, presumably, liberals in their aim to protect minorities is.. what's the word... ironic.
  41. 7:08:18 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: I generally begin most of my commentaries with a statement of my point.
  42. 7:08:25 PMSimpleJakThe federal standard is quite stringent.
  43. 7:08:30 PMSimpleJakThat was my point.
  44. 7:08:30 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, but what was the point about the zimmerman case?
  45. 7:08:37 PMSimpleJakI think provided an example to illustrate that point.
  46. 7:08:50 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: That was an example of examplification.
  47. 7:09:10 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, we were talking about an actual jew though, and a theoretical lesbian
  48. 7:09:14 PMSimpleJakIt is a notable counterpoint to your point.
  49. KiwiIRC
  50. DALnet14#atheism0#christiandebate0
  51. http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2018/03/02/tn-lt-gov-urges-voters-to-reject-candidate-because-shes-a-dangerous-atheist/
  52. 7:09:32 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: It is not always inappropriate to say "the jew" -- just sometimes.
  53. 7:09:46 PMSimpleJakTo wit, how essential their Jewishness is to the point being made.
  54. 7:09:53 PMDoubleDiamondTimeLOL
  55. 7:09:55 PMSimpleJakIn your case, it seemed non-essential.
  56. 7:10:08 PMDoubleDiamondTimeno, it was the basis of the entire debate
  57. 7:10:16 PMSimpleJakCan you summarize the entire debate.
  58. 7:10:25 PMSimpleJakI am only engaging your point:
  59. 7:10:32 PMⓘ http://www.patheos.com/blogs/friendlyatheist/2018/03/02/tn-lt-gov-urges-voters-to-reject-candidate-b...
  60. 7:10:35 PMalksfggfgdengage his penis
  61. 7:10:41 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTimethis is exactly what the paleoconservatives in the 90s warned against, and now it's actually come to pass
  62. 7:10:50 PMDoubleDiamondTimescroll up, we were talking about a jew committing anti-semetic hate crimes
  63. 7:10:53 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTimeso basically any crime involving a "marginalized identity" is technically a hate crime
  64. 7:10:59 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: There are no Semites.
  65. 7:11:06 PMSimpleJakIt's an obsolete linguistic grouping.
  66. 7:11:15 PMSimpleJakAnti-Jewish is the correct term.
  67. 7:11:20 PMSimpleJakUnfortunately, even Jews get that wrong.
  68. 7:11:31 PMSimpleJakProbably because of bias.
  69. 7:11:58 PMSimpleJakYour claim about any crime involving a "marginalized identity" being a hate crime is false.
  70. 7:12:09 PMSimpleJakWhat is the source of your misperception?
  71. 7:12:17 PMSimpleJakI would guess propaganda masquerading as 'media'.
  72. 7:12:38 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Are you aware Russian propaganda is primarily focused on exacerbating divisions between Americans?
  73. 7:12:39 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, no, it was in reference to sbalneav
  74. 7:12:50 PMSimpleJakThere is considerable Congressional testimony on this point.
  75. 7:13:21 PMSimpleJakMuch of right-wing media is either actively colluding with Russia, or has indirectly adopted their Firehose model of propaganda.
  76. 7:13:32 PMSimpleJakFor example, you'll notice right-wing media is obsessed with social divisions.
  77. 7:13:35 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, i'm pretty sure that sort of propaganda has existed long before facebook and twitter bots
  78. 7:13:40 PMSimpleJakAgreed.
  79. 7:13:48 PMSimpleJakIt was at a non-zero amount going back decades.
  80. 7:13:48 PMDoubleDiamondTimeso why is it suddenly the decisive issue?
  81. 7:13:58 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Because it is much, much worse than at any previous time.
  82. 7:14:08 PMDoubleDiamondTimeis it, though?
  83. 7:14:10 PMSimpleJakSo much so that it changed the result of the election.
  84. 7:14:14 PMDoubleDiamondTimeLOL
  85. 7:14:20 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Yes, multiple independent investigations show that it is.
  86. 7:14:44 PMSimpleJakhttps://youtu.be/iXrBO46Q-fw?t=3688
  87. 7:14:45 PMpela-[YouTube]- [( Boris Brejcha - The Soul of Minimal (Tripping) )] [Uploader: Art of Minimal Techno - Tripping] [Duration: 1:20:51] [Views: 1109949]
  88. 7:14:47 PMDoubleDiamondTimehow much could hillary campaigning more in battleground states have changed the results?
  89. 7:14:50 PMSimpleJak"LOL" is almost always a poor response.
  90. 7:14:53 PMSimpleJakThis is one of those times.
  91. 7:15:04 PMDoubleDiamondTimesurely it would have been more crucial than people liking facebook posts sourced from bots
  92. 7:15:06 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Complex events in the universe are almost always multifactorial.
  93. 7:15:14 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Your point is actually a non-sequitur.
  94. 7:15:21 PMSimpleJakAlso, it's quite important.
  95. 7:15:27 PMSimpleJakMany non sequiturs are important.
  96. 7:15:31 PMSimpleJakI can show you why.
  97. 7:15:38 PMSimpleJakHere is a process that generates samples.
  98. 7:15:41 PMDoubleDiamondTimeit's strange you'd rather chalk it all up to "facebook turned everyone into zombies! we have been divided by the bots!" rather than: hillary was a shit candidate
  99. 7:15:45 PMSimpleJakIt's parameter value is unknown.
  100. 7:15:51 PMSimpleJakI sample from this process and get X.
  101. 7:15:59 PMSimpleJakNow, I change the parameter value an unknown amount.
  102. 7:16:05 PMSimpleJakI sample from this process and get Y.
  103. 7:16:10 PMDoubleDiamondTimethis does nothing but demean you and your identity as a "liberal" or "leftist" or whatever the hell you imagine yourself as
  104. 7:16:22 PMDoubleDiamondTimethe so-called "russian division" has turned you into a CIA lapdog
  105. 7:16:26 PMDoubleDiamondTimethink about that
  106. 7:16:28 PMSimpleJakIt can be the case that the change to the parameter sufficiently explains the change in sample class.
  107. 7:16:35 PMDoubleDiamondTimeperhaps YOU have been infected by the evil russian bots
  108. 7:16:46 PM* SimpleJak pauses
  109. 7:17:06 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, you sound strung out on rachel maddow...time to turn off the tv
  110. 7:17:08 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: You reasonably collapsed in the last three posts.
  111. 7:17:12 PMSimpleJakI believe you can recover.
  112. 7:17:17 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: That was a fallacy.
  113. 7:17:22 PMSimpleJakAre you able to see that?
  114. 7:17:29 PMSimpleJakIt is an ad hominem and red herring fallacy.
  115. 7:17:33 PMSimpleJak(Perhaps among others)
  116. 7:18:10 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: This is a good opportunity for learning.
  117. 7:18:16 PMSimpleJakI sense the possibility of insight.
  118. 7:18:28 PMSimpleJakPart of you believes I have insight into these topics, and another part of you believes I do not.
  119. 7:18:41 PMSimpleJakIf you make a choice to go with the former, you will have a breakthrough.
  120. 7:19:01 PMDoubleDiamondTimeLOL
  121. 7:19:17 PMDoubleDiamondTimeyou don't strike me as particularly insightful at all so far
  122. 7:19:21 PMDoubleDiamondTimebut you can still prove me wrong :)
  123. 7:19:31 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Can you tell me the current topic?
  124. 7:19:36 PMSimpleJakWe've added a few things to the stack.
  125. 7:19:56 PMDoubleDiamondTimethat trump won the election because of russia botfarms "dividing america"
  126. 7:20:01 PMSimpleJakYes.
  127. 7:20:03 PMDoubleDiamondTimeLOL
  128. 7:20:04 PMSimpleJakNice.
  129. 7:20:11 PMalksfggfgdtit farms
  130. 7:20:14 PMDoubleDiamondTimei can't help but laugh just typing that
  131. 7:20:20 PMDoubleDiamondTimepeople actually believe this shit
  132. 7:20:21 PMSimpleJakOkay, we have a thesis.
  133. 7:20:27 PMDoubleDiamondTimeand are waiting around for the FBI and CIA to come save them
  134. 7:20:35 PMDoubleDiamondTimeleftists no less!
  135. 7:20:37 PMDoubleDiamondTimeirony is dead
  136. 7:20:37 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: I am a data scientist. I am applying a data science analysis to our thesis.
  137. 7:20:40 PMDoubleDiamondTimewe are living in clown world
  138. 7:20:50 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Try to stay focused.
  139. 7:21:08 PMSimpleJakA mathematical description of my claim is something like this:
  140. 7:21:22 PMSimpleJakThere is an Electoral Process with some parameter vector, Theta.
  141. 7:21:36 PMSimpleJakOne of these parameters in Theta is Russian_Propaganda.
  142. 7:22:05 PMSimpleJakIf you hold all other parameter in Theta fixed, and decrease Russian _Propaganda to zero, the posterior on Trump winning the electoral college decreases substantially.
  143. 7:22:08 PMSimpleJakThat is my thesis.
  144. 7:22:33 PMSimpleJakIt can also be the case that if we change the parameter Where_Hillary_Campaigned, holding Russian_Propaganda fixed, we could also have the same result.
  145. 7:22:36 PMSimpleJakBut that is a non sequitur.
  146. 7:22:41 PMDoubleDiamondTimei'd be more willing to buy that if he had won by a more substantial margin
  147. 7:22:41 PMDoubleDiamondTimebut he didn't
  148. 7:22:54 PMDoubleDiamondTimehe won the electoral college by an extremely margin of votes
  149. 7:22:59 PMSimpleJakYou believe that if there was less Russian propaganda, Trump would have gained votes?
  150. 7:23:09 PMDoubleDiamondTimewhich could have been saved by a more robust campaign by clinton
  151. 7:23:19 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: We are not ready for debating the interaction of two parameters.
  152. 7:23:25 PMSimpleJakBased off your skill.
  153. 7:23:29 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, no, i don't think russian propaganda was actually a decisive factor
  154. 7:23:32 PMSimpleJak(An honest, but perhaps painful analysis)
  155. 7:23:54 PMDoubleDiamondTimethe more decisive factor was the crappy hillary campaign
  156. 7:23:56 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: That hypothesis could be true.
  157. 7:24:01 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: That is a non sequitur.
  158. 7:24:12 PMDoubleDiamondTimeno it's not, it's the entire reason why she lost!
  159. 7:24:13 PMSimpleJakI have made no statements about the ordering of most important parameters in Theta.
  160. 7:24:18 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: That is not the topic.
  161. 7:24:23 PMSimpleJakDo you remember the topic?
  162. 7:24:31 PMalksfggfgdporn?
  163. 7:24:35 PMSimpleJakWe are not analyzing why Hillary lost the electoral college.
  164. 7:25:21 PMSimpleJakWe earn the right to analyze two or more things, simultaneously, by demonstrating we can analyze one thing with skill.
  165. 7:25:32 PMSimpleJakIf you adopt that belief, your mind will become more focused and sharp.
  166. 7:25:46 PMDoubleDiamondTimeone of those things is why hillary lost the electoral college
  167. 7:25:59 PMDoubleDiamondTimewhich is the question at hand
  168. 7:26:00 PMSimpleJakMany parameters are involved in why Hillary lost the EC.
  169. 7:26:02 PMSimpleJakAgreed.
  170. 7:26:06 PMSimpleJakI am discussing one of those parameters.
  171. 7:26:12 PMDoubleDiamondTimeyou are saying that she lost the EC because of russia
  172. 7:26:18 PMSimpleJakNot precisely.
  173. 7:26:21 PMDoubleDiamondTimeand if russia wasn't involved, she would have won the EC
  174. 7:26:26 PMSimpleJakNot precisely.
  175. 7:26:27 PMDoubleDiamondTimethat is obvious bullshit
  176. 7:26:34 PMSimpleJakOkay, we agree, then.
  177. 7:26:55 PMSimpleJakHow do you feel about a foreign entity being able to modify the outcome of a presidential election?
  178. 7:27:17 PMSimpleJakI think it's terrible.
  179. 7:27:18 PMDoubleDiamondTimebad, but i don't think that actually happened in the u.s. in 2016
  180. 7:27:32 PMDoubleDiamondTimei also feel bad when the u.s. does that to other countries
  181. 7:27:39 PMDoubleDiamondTimewhich actually happens
  182. 7:27:50 PMDoubleDiamondTimeunlike your bullshit russia theorizing
  183. 7:27:52 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: The USA has frequently interfered in the elections in other countries.
  184. 7:28:22 PM* SimpleJak pauses
  185. 7:28:39 PMSimpleJakhttps://youtu.be/tPK5Zm3a9bM?t=674
  186. 7:28:40 PMpela-[YouTube]- [( Audiomolekül - Road to Nowhere (Melodic Techno Mix) )] [Uploader: Audiomolekül] [Duration: 1:25:42] [Views: 402030]
  187. 7:28:44 PMSimpleJakThis is excellent electronic music.
  188. 7:29:00 PMDoubleDiamondTimethat talking heads song doesn't need a techno remix
  189. 7:29:28 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: How do you think we could go about robustly answering the question, How much did Russian propaganda modify the election result?
  190. 7:29:40 PMSimpleJakI have a model.
  191. 7:30:03 PMSimpleJakWhich one is the Talking Heads song?
  192. 7:30:07 PMSimpleJakI'm not familiar with their music.
  193. 7:30:14 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, first step is determining where exactly hillary lost
  194. 7:30:29 PMDoubleDiamondTimewhich is clear: states like WI and PA
  195. 7:30:37 PMDoubleDiamondTime"road to nowhere" is a talking heads song
  196. 7:30:52 PMSimpleJakOh. Here, though, it is the name of the album.
  197. 7:31:07 PMDoubleDiamondTimesecond step is deciding if hillary could have done anything to have prevented losses in these states, given that these same states went democratic in the previous election
  198. 7:31:35 PM* SimpleJak reminds the question is about answering how much Russian propaganda modified the election result
  199. 7:31:44 PMDoubleDiamondTimethird step is deciding if, the campaign did all that there could be done, it would have been possible to garner a measly 100,000 votes
  200. 7:31:45 PM* SimpleJak and not about how could have Hillary won
  201. 7:32:25 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: You haven't yet mentioned Russia.
  202. 7:32:36 PMSimpleJakI think that means your answer is, at best, incomplete.
  203. 7:32:44 PMSimpleJakWould you like to hear my model?
  204. 7:32:52 PMSimpleJakI am a data scientist and so I have some experience in this regard.
  205. 7:33:18 PMSimpleJak1. Identify what constitutes Russian propaganda. This will probably include a probability distribution over different pieces of content
  206. 7:33:30 PMSimpleJakFor example, this particular broadcast on RT America is 87% Russian propaganda
  207. 7:33:33 PMSimpleJakThis will be somewhat hard
  208. 7:33:40 PMDoubleDiamondTimeif stronger campaigning and a better ground game would have resulted in just 5% of voters going for dems instead of trump or stein or nobody, she would have won
  209. 7:33:58 PMSimpleJak2. Identify where these pieces of Russian propaganda interfaced with American voters. Major points of contact were on Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit.
  210. 7:34:06 PMDoubleDiamondTimewhich belies the fact that russia wasn't responsible for her loss
  211. 7:34:09 PM* SimpleJak pauses
  212. 7:34:23 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: You have answered a different question.
  213. 7:34:26 PMSimpleJakWhy do you think you did this?
  214. 7:34:38 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: How do you think we could go about robustly answering the question, How much did Russian propaganda modify the election result?
  215. 7:34:41 PMSimpleJakThat is the question.
  216. 7:34:42 PMDoubleDiamondTimebecause russia is a scapegoat
  217. 7:35:00 PMDoubleDiamondTimerussian propaganda modified the election result in a miniscule way
  218. 7:35:07 PMSimpleJak"a person who is blamed for the wrongdoings, mistakes, or faults of others, especially for reasons of expediency."
  219. 7:35:13 PMDoubleDiamondTimethe majority of propaganda was already directed at people already determined to vote for trump
  220. 7:35:21 PMSimpleJakWhat is the other for which I am using Russian propaganda as the scapegoat?
  221. 7:35:38 PMSimpleJakI'll remind you I am not interested in "How could Hillary have won?".
  222. 7:35:52 PMSimpleJakOther people who are not present in this conversation and say words similar to the words I am saying are interested in that question.
  223. 7:36:02 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, numerous studies have shown that these social networks are notorious for being echo chambers
  224. 7:36:03 PMSimpleJakI recommend you accurately listen to the speaker you're in a conversation with.
  225. 7:36:23 PMDoubleDiamondTimewhat's the point of propagandizing people who are already thoroughly propagandized?
  226. 7:36:27 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: So, let's return to the question.
  227. 7:36:36 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, answer my question
  228. 7:36:48 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Let me be clear before I answer your question.
  229. 7:36:53 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, your hypothesis implies that russian trolling somehow had a vast impact on potential voters as whole
  230. 7:36:59 PMDoubleDiamondTimewhich is simply not the case
  231. 7:37:03 PMSimpleJakI am interested in the following: "How much did the presence of X modify that experiment?"
  232. 7:37:32 PMSimpleJakAnd you want, as part of answering that question to answer the question, "What's the point of analyzing the impact of X on those minds already influenced by things like X?"
  233. 7:37:32 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, not a lot, because the presence was primarily present within the aforementioned social media echo chambers
  234. 7:37:36 PMDoubleDiamondTimenow respond to that point, please
  235. 7:37:57 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: So, you're asserting Russian propaganda was already present on those platforms?
  236. 7:38:06 PMSimpleJakAnd that prevent Russian propaganda from modifying the consumers very much?
  237. 7:38:18 PMSimpleJakOr, did they merely have generalized propaganda, but not Russian propaganda.
  238. 7:38:31 PMSimpleJak(I am engaging this diversion because you've shown some patience)
  239. 7:38:33 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, it was propaganda for people who were already decided
  240. 7:38:37 PMSimpleJak(It is not a productive diversion, in my view)
  241. 7:38:54 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, it wasn't moving beyond the echo chamber in any way that could be said to have influenced the final result
  242. 7:38:55 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: Do you see how your point is subsumed into my question?
  243. 7:39:03 PMSimpleJakI can show you how.
  244. 7:39:13 PMSimpleJakI am interested in assessing how much Russian propaganda influenced the result of the election.
  245. 7:39:24 PMSimpleJakMy first point is trying to determine what constitutes Russian propaganda.
  246. 7:39:36 PMSimpleJakMy second point is trying to determine how that Russian propaganda interface with the minds of American voters.
  247. 7:39:56 PMpela-[YouTube]- [( Little Big No future no rich this is Russia bitch )] [Uploader: Максим Дмитриченко] [Duration: 2:54] [Views: 128100]
  248. 7:40:04 PMSimpleJakMy third point, which I haven't yet made due to this diversion, is 'What is the effect on the minds of those voters who came into contact with that propaganda?"
  249. 7:40:08 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, russian propaganda primarly reached people who were overwhelmingly determined to vote for trump anyways
  250. 7:40:11 PMSimpleJakYou are discussing one part of the third point.
  251. 7:40:27 PMSimpleJakSpecifically, the effect of Russian propaganda on those who consumed it may not be high due to other factors.
  252. 7:40:33 PMSimpleJakTo which, I say, "Agreed."
  253. 7:40:52 PMSimpleJakHowever, you have jumped to a fine point before we've elucidated our larger structure.
  254. 7:40:57 PMSimpleJakThis is not the most skillful analysis.
  255. 7:40:59 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, if somehow this propaganda had spread beyond this echo chamber, perhaps you'd have a point...but it since it didn't, the lacklustre hillary campaign is by far the most compelling "conspiracy" at play here
  256. 7:41:16 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: I am not interested in Hillary's campaign, currently.
  257. 7:41:19 PMSimpleJakDo you remember?
  258. 7:41:42 PMDoubleDiamondTimebecause it's inconvenient to your bullshit point?
  259. 7:41:48 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: How do you think we could go about robustly answering the question, How much did Russian propaganda modify the election result?
  260. 7:41:52 PMSimpleJakThat is what I am interested in.
  261. 7:42:04 PMSimpleJakSo, at my top-level model, I propose a tripartite structure:
  262. 7:42:10 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, you can't just ignore it in trying to gauge how much the propaganda played in her loss
  263. 7:42:15 PMSimpleJak1. Probability distributions over content
  264. 7:42:26 PMSimpleJak2. Model over how that came into contact with American voters
  265. 7:42:31 PMSimpleJak3. The effect of that contact
  266. 7:42:36 PMSimpleJakNow, if you'd like, we can go into subpoints
  267. 7:42:45 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: I am not interested in her loss.
  268. 7:42:47 PMDoubleDiamondTimei mean, do you even hear yourself? "her loss has nothing to do with examining the role of russian propaganda in her loss!"
  269. 7:42:48 PMSimpleJakYou seem stuck.
  270. 7:43:06 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: At no point have I asked about Russian propaganda in her loss.
  271. 7:43:13 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: How do you think we could go about robustly answering the question, How much did Russian propaganda modify the election result?
  272. 7:43:15 PMpela-[YouTube]- [( ANJ - GORBACHOV - The Music Video )] [Uploader: Karyyk] [Duration: 3:24] [Views: 133535]
  273. 7:43:18 PMSimpleJak"modify"
  274. 7:43:32 PMSimpleJakI am interested in knowing how much of an effect Russian propaganda had.
  275. 7:43:33 PM@BS_Lewis9
  276. 7:43:33 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, the election result=someone wins, someone loses
  277. 7:43:38 PMSimpleJakAgreed.
  278. 7:43:47 PMSimpleJakHowever, modification does not imply the result was changed.
  279. 7:43:49 PMSimpleJakDo you see that?
  280. 7:43:55 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, her loss (and trump's win) is the main question at hand at this point
  281. 7:43:59 PMSimpleJakFalse.
  282. 7:44:12 PMSimpleJakDoubleDiamondTime: I do not want foreign interference in our elections.
  283. 7:44:15 PMSimpleJakI believe you agree with that, yes?
  284. 7:44:28 PMSimpleJakLet us say that Hillary won and there had been Russian interference.
  285. 7:44:35 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, that's what i'm saying: modification could just as well mean that barack fucking obama went to wisconsin or PA or IA a couple times
  286. 7:44:44 PMSimpleJakLet's calm down.
  287. 7:45:03 PMDoubleDiamondTimeSimpleJak, it doesn't just mean some bot farm in macedonia spammed some breitbart articles on facebook
  288. 7:45:08 PMDoubleDiamondTimeit goes both ways
  289. 7:45:13 PMDoubleDiamondTimeyou can't simply reduce it to "russia"
  290. 7:45:16 PMDoubleDiamondTimethat's idiotic
  291. 7:45:17 PMSimpleJakAn oracle tells us that Russian propaganda occurred. The result was Hillary got 70% and Trump got 30%.
  292. 7:45:37 PMSimpleJakThe oracle further tells us that if no Russian propaganda had occurred, the result would have been Hillary 75% and Trump 25%.
  293. 7:45:43 PMSimpleJakSo, they modified the election.
  294. 7:45:45 PMDoubleDiamondTimeLOL
  295. 7:45:48 PMSimpleJakAnd I wouldn't want that.
  296. 7:46:00 PMSimpleJakThe election result was the same, though.
  297. 7:46:08 PMpela-[YouTube]- [( "You and all your commie friends" )] [Uploader: 23rdDail] [Duration: 3:35] [Views: 2332]
  298. 7:46:13 PM Ignoring pela!*@*
  299. 7:46:23 PMSimpleJakWhat do you think of this counterfactual?
  300. 7:47:12 PMDoubleDiamondTimebrb
  301. 7:47:49 PMSimpleJakhttps://youtu.be/tPK5Zm3a9bM?t=4106
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