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5/25/24-5/29/24 Update, day 822-826 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border: 


UA intercepted 13/14 drones overnight, mainly in the W of the country.

Following an overnight drone attack on Rivne energy infrastructure, power cyclings were not needed. Since 2 nuclear reactors are operating at full capacity following recent scheduled maintenance, no current blackouts are forecast. 

Germany handed Ukraine three large-sized power transformers with a capacity of 40,000 kVA each to power distribution network nodes and 16 units of special equipment.

Per the Czech republic, the first 155mm ammunition purchased abroad will arrive in UA in the coming days. The expectation is some 500,000 shells will be delivered by end of year with current funding.

Viktor Medvedchuk's wife Oksana Marchenko will be tried in Ivano-Frankivsk. She is suspected of financing Russian groups in Crimea.

There remains no assessed threat from Belarus, although RU is predicted to increase its info ops around a potential new front from that direction.

Poland is willing to sign onto a pan-european measure to limit benefits to UA citizens evading the draft, stating that without EU buy-in it will simply lead to an internal refugee crisis.

A man suspected of spying for Russia for the past two years has been arrested in Romania, after sending images of NATO military bases to an RU diplomat.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine:

UA intercepted 3/3 Shaheds on the night of the 28th.

UA intercepted 31/31 shaheds and 12/12 cruise missiles on the 26th, with RU launching an additional 2 Khinzal ballistic missiles.

Thus far this year, RU has launched approximately 10,000 glide bombs into UA.

Since implementing the Reserve+ Application to allow for digital registration, some 710,000 people have been removed from unjustified "Wanted" statuses for failure to report to mobilization officers. The majority were due to paperwork and bureaucratic errors. Over 1.1 million people have updated their data in the digital application.

Some 613 UA prisoners have volunteered for service, and will be placed in their own assault units. Currently there is much discussion on further integration with regular units, but it will be dependent on these units performance on the field.

US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo arrived in Kyiv. He has scheduled meetings with high-ranking officials to discuss US support for Ukraine

Zelensky stated that RU's next targets will be Moldova, Kazakhstan, and the Baltic states.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

RU forces are increasingly massing along the Sumy and NW Kharkiv border, and whether they intend to assault or fix UA troops here is unclear.

RU reportedly launched its Kharkiv assault early, as it went forward with about 35,000 soldiers instead of 50-70,000 ready.

UA National Guard commander General Oleksandr Pivneko inspected the status of UA defensive positions in Sumy oblast.

RU advances to the NE of Kharkiv city appear to have broadly stalled, as RU launched 2 attacks towards Liptsi. RU lost some 220 soldiers and 32 pieces of equipment on this axis in the last day. RU launched 8 assaults today.

RU assaults towards Lyptsi have become increasingly irregular in their composition, with more Desertcross ATVs and civilian vans being utilized. RU assaults towards Vovchansk have likewise stalled, with continued heavy shelling of the city itself and copious MLRS and airstrikes.

Thus far some 11,200 residents of Kharkiv oblast border regions have been evacuated.

Thus far 19 bodies have been recovered from the Epicenter construction/big box store which was hit by RU missiles over the weekend. At least 54 other people were injured. At least 200 people were present during the attack.

An IRGC provided Mohajer-6 drone crashed over the weekend in Kursk, which was carrying the latest IR Qaem-5 missiles. It was likely targeting Sumy oblast.


Kupyansk/Lyman:

RU has contested additional territory to the SE of Kupyansk along the highway near Berestove, launching 22 assaults over the last day.

UA has expanded its drone ops into RU territory near Synkivka, as RU forces advanced around Ivanivka near the PO7 highway, aided by TOS thermobaric barrages.

RU forces advanced marginally closer to the W Svatove axis, apparently abandoning a "Turtle tank" after it got stuck on terrain features. More RU motorcycle assaults have been visualized on this axis.

RU attempted to push towards Nevske once in the SE near Kreminna. The situation here remains without change, although longer range RU drones have been targeting UA tankers here as UA drones return the favor.

RU shelled the forest outskirts of Lyman, causing a forest fire.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU has contested additional territory to the SE of Siversk, near Spirne.

RU forces aided by extensive MLRS strikes have advanced along the highway W of Ivanivske, up to the forest belt. RU launched 6 assaults over the last day. RU is broadly concentrating infantry in the forests north of Kanal. RU forces appear to have advanced in this direction, aided by thermobaric barrages.
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RU has redoubled its efforts near Chasiv yar, launching about 6 assaults per day. RU has reportedly decreased its average equipment use per assault, and is losing some 50 soldiers per day + wounded .

RU has increased MLRS strikes on the UA positions near Klischiivka.


Avdiivka/Pokrovsk:

RU continues to focus on this area, launching some 33 assaults to the W of Avdiivka. The front lines do not appear to have materially changed in the last few days.

RU forces have additionally taken territory along the highway NW of 

UA reportedly shot down another SU-25 jet near Pokrovsk.

RU reportedly lost some 320 soldiers and 20 pieces of equipment on this axis in the last day.


Donetsk city/Occupied regions:

RU launched 20 assaults to the NW and SW of Marinka, including further contesting central Krasnohorivka and broadly assaulting from the industrial southern portion into the residential N.

RU has intensified its operations towards Krasnohorivka, launching 80 kamikaze UAVs and 640 other drone attacks over 3 days.

RU has reportedly caused over $570 million USD worth of damage to energy infrastructure in the Donetsk region, and another $100 million of direct powerplant damage.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis: 

RU launched 22 assaults towards Staromaiorske and Robotyne. RU launched 296 attacks on 8 settlements, 79x with drones and 212x with artillery.

RU allegedly plans to build a new pumping station at the ZNPP, as they seek to eventually restart several reactors and connect them to the RU power grid. There are serious deficits in manpower and equipment repair on the site, but RU may seek a symbolic reopening on the 40th anniversary of the plant in december of 2024.

RU has been observed increasing the movement of troops from Rostov to Berdyansk, via Mariupol.

Zaporizhia has constructed a modular and entrenched hospital (with protection against shrapnel and independent power systems). They have a capacity of 200 patients per day.


Kherson:

RU launched 3 assaults on the UA bridgehead at Krynky. UA has allegedly gained some advantages in its operations here recently, although whether that is on the ground or aerial front is unspecified.

RU has been recently more bold with armored attacks on the bridgehead, losing tanks far closer to UA positions.

UA shot down 11 Shaheds near Nikopol on the 26th.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

RU has reportedly deployed anti-submarine ships to guard Sevastapol harbor.

RU is reportedly deploying additional SAM systems to the Dzhankoi airfield.

Currently there are no RU combat ships in the Black sea or Sea of Azov.


Russia:

A Long range UA drone attacked the RU long-range radar station in Orsk, which is part of the RU nuclear observation system.

RU reportedly intercepted 4 drones in Krasnodar near Gelendzhik, where Putin's opulent palace is located nearby.

UA drones targeted the Livna oil depot in Oryol oblast, which killed a responding firefighter and wounded 3 others.

Russia may sign an agreement with the Armed Forces of Sudan on the exchange of weapons per ISW, as they seek to establish a naval base in the Red Sea.

General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 12 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 61 air strikes (including drones), and 89 MLRS strikes. 435 RU kamikaze drones were used including 59 Shaheds/Lancets and FPV.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

1300 x soldiers (Total 505,100 day avg 1320 last 7 days)
33x APC 
8x Tank
39x Artillery (2xMLRS)
1x Air Defense
1x Aircraft
56x vehicles
28x UAV

estimated cost: $108.6 million USD

total estimated cost- $100.1 Million/day per last 30 days, $3.0 Billion USD over last 30 days.


Overseas:

Ukraine can attack Russia with weapons provided by Finland per the country's Foreign Ministry. The Polish MoD echoed similar statements, as did French president Macron and the Canadian Foreign ministry.

Lithuania approved the allocation of 13.5 million euros for the purchase of air surveillance radars to support the German-led air defense coalition of Ukraine.

Sweden announced a large $1.26 billion USD military aid package, including the countries entire stockpile of APC's (300+) and eventually an Airborne control radar aircraft.

Germany and the Czech Republic called on the European Union to create a high-level working group to determine ways to phase out gas supplies from Russia, including liquefied natural gas, as well as oil and nuclear fuel.

Germany will allocate 60 million euros for humanitarian aid to UA, mainly eastern regions.

France did not confirm Syrskys statements that French military instructors would soon be in country, stating it was a topic under discussion.

Spain will provide UA with 1 billion euros in military aid this year and another 5 billion over the next three years

Spain will hand over 19 Leopard 2A4 tanks and about ten Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine as part of a new military aid package worth $1.23 billion.