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- d<-read.csv("MYFILE", header = TRUE, sep =";")
- t<-as.Date(d$date,format="%d.%m.%Y")
- require("tseries")
- require("forecast")
- DJCT<-d$DJCT
- DJCTaprx<-na.approx(DJCT)
- DJCTretINSA<-ln(DJCTaprx[368:1828]/lead(DJCTaprx[368:1828], 1))[1:1460]
- DJCTretOUTSA<-ln(DJCTaprx[3:368]/lead(DJCTaprx[3:368], 1))
- DJCTret<-ln(DJCTaprx/lead(DJCTaprx, 1))
- auto.arima(DJCTretINSA, stationary=TRUE)
- Series: DJCTretINSA
- ARIMA(1,0,1) with zero mean
- Coefficients:
- ar1 ma1
- 0.4807 -0.350
- s.e. 0.1449 0.155
- sigma^2 estimated as 7.947e-05: log likelihood=4820.64
- AIC=-9635.29 AICc=-9635.27 BIC=-9619.43
- arimaDJCTinsa<-auto.arima(DJCTretINSA, stationary=TRUE)
- plot(forecast(arimaDJCTinsa, h=365))
- accuracy(forecast(arimaDJCTinsa, h=365), DJCTretOUTSA[1:365])
- ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
- Training set -0.0001304150 0.008908426 0.006162879 NaN Inf 0.8182688
- Test set 0.0003074467 0.010278043 0.006968379 -Inf Inf 0.9252182
- ACF1
- Training set 0.002305611
- Test set NA
- tsDJCT<-ts(ln(DJCTaprx[368:1828]/lead(DJCTaprx[368:1828], 1))[1:1460], frequency=365)
- bestfit <- list(aicc=Inf)
- for(i in 1:25)
- {
- fit <- auto.arima(tsDJCT, xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=i), seasonal=FALSE)
- if(fit$aicc < bestfit$aicc)
- bestfit <- fit
- else break;
- print(i)
- }
- [1] 1
- auto.arima(tsDJCT, xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=1), seasonal=FALSE)
- Series: tsDJCT
- Regression with ARIMA(1,0,1) errors
- Coefficients:
- ar1 ma1 S1-365 C1-365
- 0.4519 -0.3228 -7e-04 -3e-04
- s.e. 0.1538 0.1633 4e-04 4e-04
- sigma^2 estimated as 7.939e-05: log likelihood=4822.33
- AIC=-9634.67 AICc=-9634.63 BIC=-9608.24
- fcDJCT<-forecast(auto.arima(tsDJCT, xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=1), seasonal=FALSE),xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=1), h=365)
- accuracy(fcDJCT, DJCTretOUTSA[1:365])
- ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
- Training set -0.0001320885 0.008898123 0.006158973 Inf Inf 0.8177503
- Test set 0.0003072622 0.010246078 0.006997517 NaN Inf 0.9290870
- ACF1
- Training set 0.001586422
- Test set NA
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