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Jun 26th, 2019
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  1. d<-read.csv("MYFILE", header = TRUE, sep =";")
  2. t<-as.Date(d$date,format="%d.%m.%Y")
  3. require("tseries")
  4. require("forecast")
  5. DJCT<-d$DJCT
  6. DJCTaprx<-na.approx(DJCT)
  7. DJCTretINSA<-ln(DJCTaprx[368:1828]/lead(DJCTaprx[368:1828], 1))[1:1460]
  8. DJCTretOUTSA<-ln(DJCTaprx[3:368]/lead(DJCTaprx[3:368], 1))
  9. DJCTret<-ln(DJCTaprx/lead(DJCTaprx, 1))
  10. auto.arima(DJCTretINSA, stationary=TRUE)
  11. Series: DJCTretINSA
  12. ARIMA(1,0,1) with zero mean
  13.  
  14. Coefficients:
  15. ar1 ma1
  16. 0.4807 -0.350
  17. s.e. 0.1449 0.155
  18.  
  19. sigma^2 estimated as 7.947e-05: log likelihood=4820.64
  20. AIC=-9635.29 AICc=-9635.27 BIC=-9619.43
  21. arimaDJCTinsa<-auto.arima(DJCTretINSA, stationary=TRUE)
  22.  
  23. plot(forecast(arimaDJCTinsa, h=365))
  24.  
  25. accuracy(forecast(arimaDJCTinsa, h=365), DJCTretOUTSA[1:365])
  26. ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
  27. Training set -0.0001304150 0.008908426 0.006162879 NaN Inf 0.8182688
  28. Test set 0.0003074467 0.010278043 0.006968379 -Inf Inf 0.9252182
  29. ACF1
  30. Training set 0.002305611
  31. Test set NA
  32.  
  33. tsDJCT<-ts(ln(DJCTaprx[368:1828]/lead(DJCTaprx[368:1828], 1))[1:1460], frequency=365)
  34. bestfit <- list(aicc=Inf)
  35. for(i in 1:25)
  36. {
  37. fit <- auto.arima(tsDJCT, xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=i), seasonal=FALSE)
  38. if(fit$aicc < bestfit$aicc)
  39. bestfit <- fit
  40. else break;
  41. print(i)
  42. }
  43. [1] 1
  44.  
  45. auto.arima(tsDJCT, xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=1), seasonal=FALSE)
  46. Series: tsDJCT
  47. Regression with ARIMA(1,0,1) errors
  48.  
  49. Coefficients:
  50. ar1 ma1 S1-365 C1-365
  51. 0.4519 -0.3228 -7e-04 -3e-04
  52. s.e. 0.1538 0.1633 4e-04 4e-04
  53.  
  54. sigma^2 estimated as 7.939e-05: log likelihood=4822.33
  55. AIC=-9634.67 AICc=-9634.63 BIC=-9608.24
  56. fcDJCT<-forecast(auto.arima(tsDJCT, xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=1), seasonal=FALSE),xreg=fourier(tsDJCT, K=1), h=365)
  57.  
  58. accuracy(fcDJCT, DJCTretOUTSA[1:365])
  59. ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
  60. Training set -0.0001320885 0.008898123 0.006158973 Inf Inf 0.8177503
  61. Test set 0.0003072622 0.010246078 0.006997517 NaN Inf 0.9290870
  62. ACF1
  63. Training set 0.001586422
  64. Test set NA
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