Odds for New Furnace Fun Skip, and how to pick questions.

Update: Do not trust, in all likelihood the odds of failure are significantly higher because we just don't know what the rng exactly is in FF. Take this with a grain of salt, it's just a well researched guess.

==Odds for New Furnace Fun Skip, and how to pick questions without furnace fun calculator==

19/200 (Screen questions)

Everyone's run has a 9.5% chance of failure at game select.

+

Gruntilda Questions (adding an additional 3.9%-4.2% failure chance) which varies depending on each individual gamefile (You can only get pattern type A-E).

Here are all the possible scenarios neatly categorized (always pick these listed answers only*):

Pattern type A) Tuna Ice Cream/Baked Beans/The Trashcan -> 71.9% chance of getting it wrong.

Pattern type B) Hog Breath/Putrid Parrot Puke/Ghastly Grey/Loggie Flicking/Cauldron College/Eyeball Ice-Cream -> 72.3% chance of getting it wrong

Pattern type C) To Blow Up Balloons With My Butt/Rat Bagels/Dog Dung Burgers/Rotting Fish/An Eyeball Flower/Streaky Brown/Saggy Maggy/Fat Hag Monthly/Camel Spit Milkshake/A Comfy Dumpster/Biggest Butt/Sat On My Broomstick/Collecting Dragon Teeth -> 72.7% chance of getting it wrong

Pattern type D) Greasy Grant/Legchomper/Grunty And The Monster Mob/A Scary Teddy Bear -> 73% of getting it wrong

Pattern type E) A Baby Dragon/A Shrunken Head/Lardmaster 2000/Massive Bloomers -> 73.4% chance of getting it wrong

Exact chances per pattern type:

Pattern E) An additional 3.9% chance of failing the skip (13.49% chance in total) Least Unlucky
Pattern D) An additional 4~% chance of failing the skip (13.55% chance in total)
Pattern C) An additional 4~% chance of failing the skip (13.59% chance in total)
Pattern B) An additional 4.1% chance of failing the skip (13.65% chance in total)
Pattern A) An additional 4.2% chance of failing the skip (13.71% chance in total) Most Unlucky

*One additional note: Using the calculator may still benefit a speedrun, because the Joker question (if it is a gruntilda question) could provide you information on the pattern. For example if you get a gruntilda question right, and the answer choice was not likely to be right, then the odds in this paste will not be as accurate as what the calculator will show you.