FM 15-card win rates

For 1:22 (WR) attempts. These are estimates based on runs, trials and some basic math. Assumes a deck with 4-5 equips, 1-2 extra monster removals, 0-1 MBD/SK/Zoa/DMs and 8-9 thunders entering Final 7

ODDS TO...                          %           Fraction
Finish "on pace" run deathless      8.8%		1/11
Finish after World Tournament		11.1%		1/9
Beat Final 7						15.4%		1/7
Finish after Heishin 2				25.8%		1/4
Finish after Seto 3					52.6%		1/2

TOP RUN KILLERS:
1. Seto 3 (51%)
2. Nitemare (44%)
3. Heishin 2 (23%)
4. Kepura (15%)
5. Neku (14%)

TOP RUN KILLERS (IN REALITY)
1. Neku
2. Neku
3. Neku
4. Neku
5. Neku

				WIN%
Rex				99
Weevil			97
Mai				99
Keith			97
Shadi			100
Bakura			99
Pegasus			94
Isis			96
Kaiba			96
Mage Soldier	100
Ocean Mage		100
Secmeton		99
Mountain Mage	100
Atenza			97
Desert Mage		99
Martis			99
Forest Mage		100
Anubisius		90
Meadow Mage		100
Kepura			85
Labyrinth Mage	91*
Sebek			99
Neku			86
Heishin 2		77
Seto 3			49
DarkNite		94
Nitemare		56

*Assuming you play safe, which you usually don't because it's faster to just save, YOLO, then try again if you die