Quarter 4 2017 Predictions

Quarter 4, 2017 Stuff
---------------------

Geez, it's been forever, huh?  I don't think I even DID a prediction chart for quarters 2 or 3?  Let's just address the predictions I made as best I can, and try to set some new ones.

---February Stuff---

> Birthday Special
I probably did this?
(Success?)

> Hit 750 Followers in Feburary
Nope.  Nope nope SO MUCH NOPE
(FAIL)

> Mario 3 W6 Blindfolded gets unlocked in February
I didn't get the new laptop until April, and no real progress was made before that point.
(FAIL)

> More simfiles will need written
Up until the last 48 hours, I've barely touched charting.
(FAIL)

> Monster Hunter Portable 3rd will happen
LOL
(FAIL)

---March Stuff---

> 750 Follower Special mid-late-month
Does the fact that I'm now IN THE MIDDLE of said special as I type this tell you how this prediction went?
(FAIL)

> World 6 blindfolded will be met by the end of the month
Again, I didn't get the new laptop until April.
(FAIL)

> More simfiles will get done, but pack won't be done.
Not really.
(FAIL)

Current Situation
-----------------

Er... so yeah, we failed a TON of stuff.  My stream has become less popular since I stopped regularly running Mario 3, and things only picked back up again when I started streaming Twitch Plays KTANE, and I'm still not sure entirely what that means; although that could work well as a viewer gateway, people are coming for KTANE on Fridays, and are not necessarily likely to stick around for other content.  However, because of the mass of followers I've gained for TP KTANE, I finally hit 750 followers in late September, and am in the middle of my 750 Follower Special, which started on October 3rd (today's the 10th).  The issue with TP KTANE is, it's the only thing I do that gets me appreciable amounts of viewers, or ever seems to increase my follower count.  I don't know how much longer TP KTANE will remain popular, or what I'm going to do when it falls out of fashion; however, Jackbox Party Pack 4 is releasing on the 19th, and you KNOW two things: one, I'm getting it, and two, it's going to do things to my follow and viewer counts.

Plans
-----

Unlike some other reports, this time, there are absolutely definite plans.

I am at present in the middle of my 750 Follower Special.

For now, the plan is to finish the 750FS (for what few people are watching it), and get back to NSMB DS runs and regular weekend broadcasts (TP KTANE and Jackbox) as soon as possible.  I want this special done before the party I'm going to on the 28th.

I also (finally) have a lot of simfile work planned for the remainder of this month, and am (actually SERIOUSLY) looking to make significant, notable progress on my new pack by the time same said party hits.

There will be a Halloween Special on the 29th-31st, involving me playing one of three DSVania games.  Right now it looks like Portrait of Ruin is winning.

Special marathon events (such as 2D MarioThon, Everything I Speedrun, and possibly TraumaThon) will continue throughout November and December, including the 12 Days of ChristmAce, as well as anything else I can put together, given that I've already paid for butt-in-seat at AGDQ 2018.  I still need funding, roomies, and transportation; nobody has contacted me yet at this point.

I can't make predictions regarding the Impulse Dance Platform because it isn't released yet and we have no clue when it will be.  They keep saying "soon," but they've been saying "soon" since December last year.

Predictions
-----------

Aight, here's the part where I once again try to "do a better and more honest job" at making predictions, then look at this paste in 3 months and cry.

---October---
Fundraising for AGDQ has not gone well so far, and let's face it, that is highly unlikely to change with the content of my special.

#1: We're not going to even get enough money to unlock Mario 3: World 6 on Dance Pad during the 750FS, and thus not by the end of the month, either.

However, I'm very serious about more simfiles, and we're getting close to everything I wanna chart being at least *ready* for me to actually slap arrows down.  Many simfiles *have* actually been started, and more than one has at least one chart done.

#2: I have said I want at least 5 fully-done simfiles by the time the Halloween party rolls around; I've also said I'm going to fix the rest of the noteskins and put a new starter bundle together.  In these things I believe I will succeed.

Although I cannot be sure how much longer TP KTANE will be a viewer-rich environment for me, I CAN say for sure that Jackbox Party Pack 4 is coming out mid-month.

#3: Jackbox Party Pack 4 will help my viewercount and follower count to a notable degree.

---November---
Again, let's be honest.  I can do all the specials I want, but I never get a ton of viewers.  Large donations tend to come from very specific people, and barring that, we ain't makin' any progress.  The plans for November basically mostly include continued specials, possibly with Grandia III or Wild Arms 4 in there somewhere; I'll continue the concept of "push to get donations to get me to AGDQ."

#4: Ace did his duty and placed specials all about, but there found nothing.

I am also going to note here that I simply don't get appreciable amounts of viewers for much of anything I do aside from TP KTANE.

#5: TP KTANE and Jackbox 4 will continue to be my most viewer-lucrative endeavors.  My stream will remain otherwise unpopular; once the Jackbox 4 followers have followed, I will hit another plateau that I probably won't really break for some months, and certainly not by the end of the year.

---December---
The Month of the 12 Days of ChristmAce.  All I can really say about December would regard AGDQ and the 12 Days of ChristmAce.  I have a strong feeling that if we don't get a mountain of money during ChristmAce - and that's pretty much impossible barring a miracle - I am not going to have enough money to go to AGDQ.

#6: Ace paid for a chair at AGDQ.  Too bad he's not gonna get to sit on it.

#7: Unless Jackbox 4 does it specifically, I will not break 1,000 followers this year.  (In fact, I'd go so far as to say that if we don't hit it because of Jackbox 4, it won't happen until summer of 2018.  I am not exaggerating.)

Last Thoughts
-------------

Just being brutally honest, as always.  Look, I love my viewers, but I just don't honestly believe in my ability to get $1,000 before AGDQ, especially not with the low viewership I get.  Being one of the lucky people who managed to register doesn't mean anything when I didn't even submit a run; I'm a low priority compared to those we will learn of on Halloween who got their runs in.  I'm not a prospective target for Gettin' Folk There, nor am I otherwise high on anyone else's priority list.  Mark my words, my going to AGDQ is going to require a miracle mountain donation, because we sure aren't getting near enough smaller donations, and given that Edd has done one *already* to get me the new laptop I'm typing this on, statistics say I am unlikely to be receiving another such donation anytime soon.

So when I inevitably can't go to AGDQ because I don't have the money and can't find anyone to room with anyway, we'll put the money toward an Impulse Platform, which will hopefully maybe perhaps be #ActuallyReleased by the end of the year.

Yes, you heard me correctly, aside from the thing I actually have control over (simfile production) and the things I know I'll get viewers for (TP KTANE and Jackbox 4), I am predicting a massive plateau with no real progress to speak of for the forseeable future.

---Exposure Concerns---
As far as I can tell, my stream's current biggest problem is just my straight-up lack of exposure.  It isn't really what I'm streaming, and I stream often enough for long enough - I'm not even so sure at this point that the issue is my being a variety streamer (variety streamers need to stream a LOT, which I do); I think the biggest concern right now is that I just seldom find myself in anyone's spotlight.  Maybe one of these days I'll get another massive host that will help people realize that I exist, and I'm worth watching.  Aside from Big Jon's raid in October 2015 (which I still remember and very much appreciate, since I gained 80ish followers that day), I've not had any meaningful hosts or raids that I can remember.  Every host alert I see is single digits, all glorified greetings.  I'm saying I mostly sit in the dark endorsement-wise.  I've considered things like paying for a spot on TwitchStrike's front page, since Twitch doesn't care about giving their Affiliates any exposure, or tweeting at Twitch retweeting services on Twitter, but if other peoples' behavior is anything like mine, that won't be worth it.  I'd also like to join another tournament or other event where I'd be restreamed, which would also gain me more exposure, but so far, nothing has come up that I've leapt out of my seat at.  I wouldn't be so concerned if this was a few weeks or something, lulls happen.  But aside from TP KTANE, I've been on a MAJOR plateau for over half a year, which tells me I'm doing something wrong.  Hopefully I can manage to stop resting on this plateau and continue climbing again sometime soon.