Glory Collision 4

Badr Hari vs Alistair Overeem

The main event of this card is the long awaited rubber match between Badr Hari and Alistair Overeem. After splitting two bouts in 2008 and 2009, where Alistair first stunned the kickboxing world by knocking out Badr in the first round at Dynamite!! 2008 and then Badr got his revenge by stopping Alistair at the K-1 World Grand Prix 2009 Semi-Final bout, they each moved on separate paths. Alistair  beat Peter Aerts to win the K-1 World Grand Prix 2010 Final before moving on to a successful MMA career with a long stint in the UFC, while Badr continued on with a long and successful kickboxing career, sometimes marred by controversies and a long winless streak as of late.

Now meeting again long past both of their primes, Badr is a modest -165 favorite (1.61 in decimal) in the early lines for this trilogy bout, implying a 62.1 percent chance of winning, which makes sense given how dangerous he is and the fact that that Alistair hasn't taken a pro kickboxing bout in over a decade. The comeback or reverse of this is that Alistair is offered at +115 odds (2.15 in decimal) implying a 46.5 % chance of winning.

I have to say, I think that the betting value in this fight is on Alistair as a small underdog. I feel like there's a very real possibility that Badr comes out guns blazing and potentially knocks Alistair out or TKOs him in the first round. But, if he doesn't, something wild and unexpected often happens to Badr in his recent bouts when they get past the first, like an injury, getting caught, or slowing down a bit from throwing so many strikes. And therefore Alistair, who has shown his chin can still take some shots with the small gloves in MMA at least, may take over for a late stoppage or a win on points in this three round bout. If I had the option to wager specifically on the fight ending in a No Contest, Disqualification, injury or another riot, I would take it! But other than that, I believe that a straight moneyline wager on Alistair as a small underdog dog around +115 is a reasonable betting proposition.

Tiffany Van Soest vs Sarah Moussadak

BeyondKick has “TimeBomb” Tiffany Van Soest listed as the Number 1 Women's P4P fighter for good reason. Since beating fearsome Anissa Meksen in their third bout to reclaim her Glory Super Bantamweight title at Glory 71, she has looked steadily improved and is coming off a knockout win via spinning heel kick to the body of the smaller Manazo Kobayashi at Glory 80. Her opponent Sarah Moussadak at Glory Collision 4 is herself strangely coming off a loss to Christi Brereton at Glory 69 with a canceled bout in between, and a couple of wins outside the organization, which makes her a bit of an odd choice for a title challenger. But alas, the women's divisions aren't that deep in kickboxing so unless Glory is willing to bring over some top international talent to challenge Tiffany, these are the kind of fights we are going to get. Tiffany is a whopping -1000 (1.1 in decimal) in the early lines, implying an over 90% chance of winning, while her opponent Sarah is currently +465 (5.65 in decimal) implying a 17.7% chance of winning. I believe most kickboxing fans would think Tiffany is a lock and more or less agree with that kind of disparity, but there’s really no wiggle room to bet Tiffany at such steep odds. So smart bettors will just pass on this fight and enjoy the spectacle for what it is.

Sergej Maslobojev vs Tarik Khbabez

With former champion Artem Vakhitov no longer in the promotion, the vacant Glory Light Heavyweight title will be contested between Lithuanian Sergej Maslobojev on a long winning streak inside and outside of Glory and Moroccan-Dutch Tarik Khbabez, newly dropping down to 95 kg from Heavyweight where he took tough stoppage losses to some elites including champion Rico Verhoeven and twice to Antonio Plazibat. In this championship opportunity, Maslobojev is a huge -910 favorite (1.11 in decimal) implying a 90.1% chance of winning while underdog Khbabez comes back at +440 (5.40 in decimal) implying an 18.5% chance of winning. As good as Maslobojev is, I think that's a very wide line and that Khbabez, despite his losing streak at heavyweight is being disrespected a bit here by the oddsmakers. If I had money burning a hole in my pocket I'd consider a small wager on the underdog at good odds and hope that Khbabez can bring his power with him in this move down in weight. Perhaps it would be wise wait for the weigh-ins as well to see what kind of shape Khbabez is in before committing.

Tyjani Beztati vs Stoyan Koprivlenski

Young Lightweight champion Tyjani Beztati has matured in Glory and looks improved each fight since winning the vacant belt at Glory 78 against Elvis Gashi and defending it against veteran Josh Jauncey.  Bulgarian kickboxer Koprivlenski, coming off a five fight win streak, may well be his toughest fight in the promotion yet. Tyjani is 4 to 1 favorite at -400 (1.25 in decimal) which implies an 80% chance of him retaining his title. The challenger Koprivlenski comes back at +250 (3.50 in decimal) which implies a 28.6% chance of winning the fight. Even with his skill, height and reach advantage, I think that it is a stretch to give Beztati such wide odds against this kind of credible challenger who looked great against Guerric Billet as recently as August. So I'd recommend a small play on Koprivlenski as an underdog at good odds if I was going to touch this fight at all.

Levi Rigters vs Tariq Osaro

Another interesting heavyweight bout, this time between former Enfusion heavyweight champion and 2020 Glory 76 heavyweight tournament winner Levi Rigters from The Netherlands and Tariq Osaro representing Nigeria. Osaro was a bit of a wild card for me and looked great stopping Rhys Brudenell at the Glory 80 Studio card in May of this year. Rigters has the superior strength of schedule though with some notable wins inside and outside of Glory so oddsmakers have made the Dutch heavyweight a modest favorite at -190 (1.53 in decimal) implying a 65.5% chance of Rigters winning the bout.  The comeback on Osaro is +130 (2.30 in decimal) implying a 43.5% chance of winning the bout. I think bookies aren't as familiar with Osaro as many hardcore kickboxing fans and the closeish odds reflect that. Rigters might style on him and show levels to the game as the saying goes. But without much ring time for Osaro that I have seen, I am inclined to just watch and be entertained for this one.


Petchpanomrung Kiatmoo9 vs Abraham Vidales

Petch as he is often called is ranked number 4 on BeyondKick's male Pound-for-Pound list with ample justification. The Thai kickboxer and muay thai competitor has been among the elite in the world for years at or around the 65 kg weight class. He returns to Glory for this card to defend his featherweight championship belt against Mexican kickboxer Abraham Vidales. The Mexican is ranked number 5 in Glory's featherweight rankings currently, but that's mostly due to a shallow talent pool at the moment.  Bookies have made the ferocious Thai striker only -400 (1.25 in decimal) however, implying “only” an 80% probability of Petch defending his belt, while the comeback on Vidales is +250 (3.50 in decimal) implying a 28.6% chance of him scoring an upset of the P4P great.  This is a rare case where I think the value is still on the large favorite, at least as long as those early odds last. Stranger things have happened in kickboxing, but I'd be quite shocked if Abraham Vidales of all fighters was the one to dethrone Petch and take his Glory belt home. If you can get down early or are able to parlay with another confident pick, I'd be interested in a moderate bet on Petch to retain even at those prices.

Conclusions:

In short, I'd like to make bets on at Alistair Overeem, Tarik Khbabez, and Stoyan Koprivlenski as underdogs at slight or good + money odds; while I would bet Petch as a medium sized favorite straight up if the odds hold. But would leave Tiffany Van Soest and Levi Rigters alone due to the wide odds for the former and a bit of uncertainty about Rigter's opponent Osaro in the latter.