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- Overview of the Source Review Process
- Email-ID 5437150
- Date 2011-10-01 01:28:43
- From Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com
- To mfriedman@stratfor.com
- Meredith,
- As we discussed, I've included my thoughts about the review process
- below. Please let me know if you have any questions. Hope you have a
- safe trip and a good weekend!
- Anya
- This document is meant to provide my observations about the sources that
- have been evaluated to date and our use of those sources. I've also
- included some other observations about the source review process and the
- thoughts about how to make our source process function more effectively.
- To date the groups of sources that have not been reviewed include:
- . MESA - All of Reva's sources, aside from ME1
- . FSU - Lauren's Russia sources, aside from the first 20 and new
- sources that Eugene has developed while in the region
- . East Asia - All sources not managed by Jen (Rodger, Zhixing, Colby,
- Chris, Lena)
- . Topic Specific Sources - Sources that can discuss economics,
- military, energy, minerals and other similar topics in multiple regions
- and countries
- Regional Overviews -
- . Latam - We have a wide range of sources in Latin America that cover
- political, security and economic matters, but we don't have a particular
- depth in any one country or area, with the possible exception of security
- sources in Mexico. Our coverage in Brazil could be especially good as both
- Paulo and Allison further develop their current contacts. Paulo appears
- to have a good selection of political, security, military and econ
- contacts, though we don't have a good track record of information from
- these contacts at this point. In other countries, we have a scattered
- selection of sources that appear to be primarily political. We have some
- gaps in full country coverage in Latin America, especially in Central
- America, since these areas haven't been particularly important in the
- past. We have some gaps in economics throughout the region, though we also
- are largely lacking tactical details about events and situations within
- the region.
- . East Asia - The sources we've reviewed to date have been handled by
- Jen, so there may be other gems buried among the team. Jen has a few
- select sources that have a deep and broad base of knowledge about specific
- subjects inside China, but mostly they have information specific to
- certain corporations, industries or situations. Jen has several contacts
- with economic and finance related information and analysis that we
- currently utilize. There are also several sources with a solid
- understanding of the political situation, as well as tactical events in
- the country. Moving forward, it may be useful to us to establish
- additional sources outside of Beijing and Shanghai to fill geographic
- gaps, as most of our contacts are currently located in those areas. Our
- coverage of Southeast Asia is largely dependent on two sources in each
- country. We currently have good sources covering several countries that
- all appear to have a good personal network of their own sources to assist
- us. These networks appear to fill most gaps in our coverage throughout the
- sub region.
- . Europe/FSU - Of all regions, I was most troubled by our contacts in
- the FSU region. While we have some contacts in Romania and Ukraine that
- cover political and economic matters, there are very few contacts that
- have proven to send us information on a reliable basis, and most of these
- contacts have a very narrow focus. That said, both Eugene and Antonia have
- identified a number of potential sources that could fill the gaps that we
- currently see in these areas. Our sources in Kazakhstan include both broad
- and narrowly focused areas of interest, though we don't have a good track
- record of information from many of the sources that would appear to be
- most valuable. This is also the case in many of the smaller countries in
- the region. We've only covered the first 20 of Lauren's Russia sources,
- though so far we appear to have a good grasp of political and energy
- matters in the country. Europe-not including countries of the Former
- Soviet Union - appears to be our weakest region by far. To date, we've
- seen fewer than 10 sources in this region, but this may be due only to our
- focus on other lesser-developed areas.
- . MESA - We don't yet have a complete look at our capabilities in
- MESA without a more detailed examination of the information that's being
- provided by ME1's sub-sources and a review of Reva's sources outside of
- ME1. While we have that information that ME1 has submitted in the archive,
- it's not readily identifiable as belonging to any specific sources, thus
- it's difficult to judge the credibility of the individuals providing
- information. We also need to evaluate the rest of Reva's non-ME1
- contacts. Kamran has a broad network of contacts with deep knowledge of
- the history and strategic issues surrounding the Middle East. Changes in
- coding systems and lack of coding for previous insight means we don't have
- a good handle on the information that has previously been provided by
- these contacts. Despite their vast knowledge, the majority of these
- contacts do not have a tactical understanding of the day-to-day affairs in
- the Middle East, or economic affairs throughout the region. While ME1
- likely has sources that can cover these issues in the Levant, we have
- significant gaps in coverage of tactical issues in most Middle Eastern
- countries. The notable exceptions to these thoughts are Turkey and
- Afghanistan, where we have several sources that can provide information on
- both the strategic and tactical situations related to politics and
- security. We also have a good selection of Turkish sources with economic
- information, though we don't have a solid track record of information from
- those contacts yet.
- . Africa - Mark has a very large list of contacts that could provide
- information on a wide variety of topics. However, outside of South
- Africa, the majority of his sources appear to have a very narrow scope of
- interest and are typically not easily accessible. Additionally, most of
- these contacts are not regularly in communication with Mark, which may
- make it difficult for us to tap into their knowledge on a regular basis.
- Many would be useful in very specific circumstances, but few could be
- considered to have an in-depth knowledge and expertise of broader topics
- or fields of study. Mark has some sources in South Africa that have a
- broader understanding of the political and security situation in South
- Africa and the energy and mining situations throughout the southern Africa
- region. However, most of the contact list appears to be related to
- security, or specific corporations, leaving gags in the area of economics.
- There are also gaps in some countries throughout the continent and gaps in
- our understanding of larger economic, mining, and energy issues outside of
- the southern regions.
- General Impressions
- . We found that many analysts frequently had not been sending insight
- information, either because it they did not consider their information to
- be insight, or because they had not yet coded the contact providing the
- insight. A simplified way to provide source codes and updated guidance on
- when a source should be given a code and what information should be sent
- will solve this problem.
- . In previous years, I would estimate that more than 50% of all
- insight sent to the lists did not include a source code. Now that we're
- attempting to evaluate each source based on the information that they're
- providing, it's more important that source codes are used each time a
- piece of insight is sent. The Watch Officers have already been extremely
- helpful in making sure the analysts are using codes when possible. This
- should aid in the next evaluation.
- . Our use of sources is currently limited by the fact that the
- analysts don't always know that a source exists. Obviously this is due in
- part to operational security, but it may be beneficial if source
- descriptions are provided among regional team members to make sure that
- everyone is aware a certain source exists and it may be possible to tap
- that individual for information.
- . We have very few sources that are proactive in providing us with
- information, despite some very long and beneficial relationships.
- . Of all media sources, multiple regions noted that they frequently
- interact with Reuters news agency more than others. I'm not sure if that
- means something specific, but our analysts seem to interact with Reuters
- journalists and bureau chiefs very frequently.
- . I didn't see any specific trends related to the use of
- Confederation partners among regions. While some have been very useful to
- date, it seems that there may be a mismatch between the individuals our
- analysts are speaking with and the people who actually have the
- information we're seeking. In some cases, it seems like this might be
- deliberate, or may be related to perceptions that we're competition within
- the industry. In some cases, these partnerships appear to be flourishing
- and providing us with good information. I don't recall hearing from any
- analyst that the relationship was too draining or too demanding for us to
- fulfill.
- . Several analysts brought up the idea of "tag-teaming" some sources,
- especially when dealing with confederation partners and indicated that
- this was a good strategy for an all-sides approach to the company so that
- we can try to ensure we're connecting as much as possible, especially in
- cases where one person "clicks" more with the partner involved.
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