plt <- ggplot(expected_line_long, aes(x=time_left, y=adjustment_value,
                                        group=adjustment_method, colour=adjustment_method,
                                        fill=adjustment_method)) +
    geom_line() +
    geom_ribbon(data=expected_line_long, aes(ymin=conf_low_naive, ymax=conf_up_naive), alpha=0.2) +
    geom_ribbon(data=expected_line_long, aes(ymin=conf_low_tweedie, ymax=conf_up_tweedie),alpha=0.2)