Timothy discussion

**DeVoTeD (Patrick) — 14/10/2025 03:13**
@Thiago thoughts on the Timothy and 3 cost Tinker Bell? I'm not convinced yet, but I'm gonna give them a try. Looks very weak to Under The Sea but they are inkable so we can ink them and play something else in this matchup. That said, I'm looking to improve the BP matchup which seems to be the only "bad one" for PS. I like that Timothy can easily quest for 2 in PS.

**Thiago — 14/10/2025 03:27**
i think the timothys body is really awkward when his ability requries u to have evasives, because the evasives themselves are already understatted, so playing a 1 attack character on turn 2 and then curving it into more understatted characters can cause you to fall behind on board super quickly. I also think the timothy is very difficult to ink when hes bad because these decks don't typically play a ton of 2-drops so you are forced to play him somewhat frequently whether you want to or not. and for tinker bell i think shes easier to ink when you dont want her because you play a lot more 3-drops usually to guarantee you have a strength of the raging fire singer. the problem with her is that im not exactly sure when you want her. against the aggressive decks shes very poor at contesting the board, vs blue green she gets under the sea'd, and against blurple she curves into their elsa. i think shes mostly only good when you are on the play against blurple and they have a mim-elephant hand which is too specific for my taste. I actually do like her as a topdeck in a lot of games when the board competely stalls and the resources are super thin, but that doesnt come up too often

**Thiago — 14/10/2025 10:55**
i think the biggest problem with timothy though, is that you are not really allowed to play him against blurple going second. usually in that matchup u cannot play diablo on turn 1 OTD because then when u play a 3/2 or 3/3 on 2 and a 3/3 or 3/4 on turn 3 -- they get to go elephant into elsa and double hit your genie3, for example. then u have your diablo and jafar2 and they have an elephant and an elsa with 3 damage each. since u only have 3 attack on board with jafar's 3+0 from diablo you cant finish off the elephant which is a complete disaster, either your turn is hard cast strength of a raging fire on turn 4 and hit in with jafar, or have a jafar3 to boost the 2-drop jafar to hit in and then lose the game to their belle moving the damage from their elsa to your 3-drop jafar that you spent all of your turn 4 playing (and even if they just have another elsa to take him out thats also very bad), or their elephant is living and using its ability to move damage which is usually game over. instead, if your 1-drop is not diablo and has at least 1 strength, after they hit your 3-drop with elephant you can chump attack your 1 and 2 drops into the elephant to finish it off 1+3+3, and then just play a 4-cost genie on curve and now your board is a genie and all they have a 2/2 elsa and your genie can't die to a belle which is a completely serviceable place for the game to. So similar to the diablo in that example, when you put timothy into play on turn 2 you are usually not able to curve a total of 7 strengths worth of stats in your first 3 turns to total together to take out an elephant once they get it online by curving it into an elsa. so if timothy is not a card we can play going second against blurple i think it has quite low utility

**FrankKarsten — 15/10/2025 18:09**
Hi @Thiago, thank you for your thoughts. We already talked a bit about Timothy and Tinker Bell in Bologna, and I agree that Timothy is only great versus Blurple on the play. I believe Timothy can still be serviceable on the draw since against the line you describe, Hook + Timothy + Genie3 can together take down Mim while leaving a 1/1 Timothy around, whereas Hook + Rajah / Jafar + Genie3 would take down Mim while leaving nothing around. (I don't play as many Palace Guards as you.) But overall, I agree with your assessment that you don't want to play or draw Timothy in most of your games.

Yet due to the inking system combined with the likelihood of drawing multiple two-drops, that didn't preclude me from adding Timothy to my deck in a Blurple-heavy field.
To use some specific numbers, suppose that:
-40% of the field is playing Blurple, and 60% is playing something else
-On the play versus Blurple, which happens 20% of games, Timothy has "value" 9 and any other non-Doc two-drop has "value 6" (given that I've won several games in this matchup with the extra lore from Timothy, I place a high value on him on the play compared to the alternatives)
-In every other scenario (combining on the draw versus Blurple and every other matchup), which happens 80% of games, Timothy has "value" 6 and any other non-Doc two-drop has "value" 8 (so I believe that Timothy is worse, but the difference is a bit smaller)
-Conditional on drawing Timothy on turn two—these are the only games that matter for the comparison—you draw another two-drop roughly 64% of the time. This number is largely based on conditional probabilities averaged over play/draw without mulligans in a deck with 2 Timothy and 7 other reasonable two-drops, and in reality it may be even a bit higher since you can adjust during mulligans when you know the matchup.
-Then a deck with 2 Timothy will get expected value 0.2 x 9 + 0.8 x (0.36 x 6+ 0.64 x 8) = 7.624 from those slots whereas a deck with 0 Timothy would get expected value 0.2 x 6 + 0.8 x 8 = 7.6.

This is the logic that makes me happy to run Timothy in a Blurple-heavy field. If, however, we believe that Blurple would not be as popular, then I don't mind shaving the two-questers. That said, if I do keep Timothy and Tink, then I may want to add another two-drop to the deck (perhaps instead of the 4th Doc) to improve the likelihood of choice on turn two, as that's an essential part of the strategy.

**Thiago — 15/10/2025 21:29**
First of all thank you for doing this, it's very cool!

I’m not completely familiar with this system but if I follow all of the values used, it seems as if even if blurple is “just” ~35% of the field then you are already getting less out of timothy than a replacement 2-drop. (feel free to correct me everywhere im wrong 😊)

Does the 64% chance you draw timothy and another 2-drop take into account if you are drawing Happy/Genie3/TinkerBell in those hands as well, as I imagine at least some part of the argument of timothy’s strength vs blurple is contingent on gaining the extra lore on a quest happening on exactly turn 3. I would also be interested in knowing how that calculation works considering that the 2-drop you have most copies of is Calhoun, is there some adjustment for the games where you draw exactly calhoun+timothy and have to ink timothy to play calhoun on turn 2 on the play vs blurple which only gives you access to the “value 6” as opposed to “value 9” even though you drew timothy on the play vs blurple.
I would also have to admit I don’t entirely grasp the way the initial values are assigned. Are the values estimations based on your experience in TCGs over the years and experience with the deck/meta? Do they come from some specific calculation you chose to leave out for brevity’s sake? Would love to know!
→ assuming the values are debateable, I would probably argue that the difference between timothy and a replacement 2-drop is at least equal if not larger in other matchups.
While I have never played Timothy myself I can imagine a handful of scenarios where his benefit, even against blurple on the play, is not enough greater than a replacement 2-drop to justify –what I would argue– is the downside you get from having him as your only 2-drops in other matchups, specifically Amber Steel, Purple Steel, and GY Dogs.
Against blurple, I think that in general, if your 4-drop isn’t exactly Genie you get a lot less value from timothy’s ability to quest for 2 as you are likely forced to play another 4-drop like dumbo or yzma instead. If the opponent has any of: rafiki, tipo+genie, mim-elephant, dumbo, ryder/kida, then I would imagine timothy is not able to quest on that turn due to the threat of being hit for 3 damage and then allowing belle to move that damage to the 4-drop you just played, as that could likely too much for the purple steel player to overcome even considering timothy would have gained 4 lore in this scenario and stayed alive. (though I do recognize you play fewer copies of dumbo+yzma than is typical so perhaps it doesn’t impact you as much).
I would be curious to know if you don’t think its super important for timothy to be questing as much around the turns 3-6 and instead are happy to just let him sit around until you have a more sophisticated board and his 4 willpower is something they struggle to deal with super easily while simultaneously having to answer your other characters, as that is kind of something I think I would need some experience with him in the matchup to properly visualize. Cards like calhoun also tend to be somewhat reasonable in positions like that, where it takes cards like elsa or strength of a raging fire to unlock the board so I would be interested in hearing if you think there is still a significant difference in their “value” in games that because I feel like these are at least a reasonable percentage of the games even on the play.
I think being forced to play timothy on turn 2, 36% of the time, against decks like amber steel, purple steel, and green yellow dogs is, in my opinion, quite significantly worse than any of the other 3-attack 2-drops that would typically be played in his place. When combatting curves of daisys/nalas/pennys/ladys I don’t think its unreasonable to argue that the difference in Timothy's single point of attack value compared to the 3 points another 2-drop you could play would have, can be the difference between challenging away more than just a small handful of lore gained by the opponent throughout the game, and ultimately costing you the entire game at times. In the Dogs matchup I think it is very important to be able to develop a 3-attack character on the second turn to be able to keep up with the high willpower characters their deck tends to play early in the game, as well as keeping yourself resilient against an eventual Under The Sea since that is typically an important element for the Dogs player in the games that they win. I find that playing two different 3-attack characters on the same turn is the biggest turning point for the purple steel player in that matchup, be it on turn 4 or 5, so I think having access to not only a single 3-attack 2-drop on turn 2 is important but also having another one or two by turns 4 or 5 is also crucial. Finally, in the mirror I think it is very important that your early characters be able to challenge well into the enemy’s characters particularly due to the snowball-y nature of the matchup. While I think timothy is somewhat poor especially against cards like calhoun and giant cobra, and quite a bit worse than one of the 3-attack characters would be, I do think it is not quite as game-breaking in this matchup as having to play timothy on turn 2 against amber steel or dogs is.
So again, not exactly sure everything that goes into the value assignments, but I do think timothy is really quite a bit worse than a replacement 2-drop against the aggro decks in the format and can be, on his own, the difference between winning and losing.

**FrankKarsten — 18/10/2025 17:41**
It doesn't take into account drawing an evasive (though I am usually happy with Timothy even if I go Cobra into Genie/Dumbo, then quest for two) nor does it factor in the Calhoun uninkability issue. And yes, if Blurple is a smaller part of the meta, then Timothy wouldn't give as much value.

The value estimations are just based on experience, not from some exact calculation. My main argument was that even if Timothy is bad in the majority of games, it can still be worthwhile to include due to the inking system in Lorcana, and I wanted to illustrate that with numbers to make the thought process concrete. The exact numbers are just quick estimations, and whether it should be "value" 6 or 7 is entirely subjective and debatable.

Yet precisely because I assigned some values, you got to explain your assessment that the difference between Timothy and a replacement 2 is larger in other matchups, which I find valuable to learn. Also, your arguments about having more 3+ strength two-drops in the mid game versus Under the Sea are compelling.

I do still generally play around Belle by not questing with Timothy on turn four, and I am happy to build up the board before ultimately questing for a bunch on turn six or so while presenting more willpower than they can deal with. You don't need to quest on turns 3–5 to still derive value from Timothy.

To improve the likelihood of having an alternative two-drop to get better in non-Blurple matchups, I have now gone down to 1 Timothy (and 1 small Tinker Bell)

**Thiago — 20/10/2025 16:28**
Awesome, thanks for your insight!

It’s good to know Timothy doesn’t have to be questing super early to still be useful vs blurple.

It sounds like it would be similar reasoning as to why I typically play with a single skater mim even though I find it has very little utility outside of exactly the amber steel matchup – especially since amber steel was 19% of bologna and in the calculation it was assuming you would want timothy against 20% of the field, even though I didn’t have any concrete reasoning for it and she just “felt” like she was worth the slot.