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How every blue state can counter new GOP gerrymanders
For many, fighting fire with fire won't be easy, but it's always possible
David Nir
Aug 06, 2025
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California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been one of the most vocal advocates of an aggressive Democratic response to mid-decade Republican gerrymandering (credit: Gavin Newsom Facebook)
As Republicans in Texas and elsewhere prepare to further gerrymander their states' already skewed congressional maps, many Democrats are eager to respond accordingly by drawing new maps of their own.

The number of states where Democrats can immediately fight fire with fire is small, but in others, longer-term planning can unshackle the redistricting process so that Democrats can better ensure the national playing field is a level one.

In this piece, we examine how every blue state and several purple ones might craft new "counter-gerrymanders" to combat GOP efforts to rig the lines outside of the normal once-a-decade redistricting cycle.

To do so, Democrats need, at a minimum, three things: political control of state government; geographic opportunity to transform districts from red to blue; and legal authority to draw new lines.

The states that Democrats control
We can start by looking at the 15 states where Democrats currently control state government—that is, they hold the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

Right off the bat, though, we can dismiss nearly half of them. In Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, New Mexico, and Rhode Island, Democrats already hold every seat in the House—24 in all. While it's possible a few more marginal districts could be shored up, there are simply no more Republican seats to target.

That leaves eight other states. But in many of these, Democrats still lack the necessary ingredients, at least for now.

In California, Colorado, New Jersey, New York, and Washington, redistricting is not the province of state lawmakers. Rather, it's handled by commissions enshrined in their respective state constitutions, and constitutions are, typically, difficult to amend, especially on an abbreviated timeline. Difficult, but not impossible. We'll return to this idea below.

Where the opportunities lie
Just three states, then, remain: Illinois, Maryland, and Oregon. The options for Democrats, however, are still limited in a few different ways.

Illinois was the rare blue state that saw Democrats draw an aggressive gerrymander following the most recent census, resulting in a map that elected 14 Democrats and just three Republicans in each of the last two elections.

As a practical matter, squeezing out even more Democratic seats would be difficult and could endanger Democratic incumbents. Illinois law does permit the creation of non-contiguous districts, but none currently exist anywhere in the nation at the federal level.

Maryland and Oregon, meanwhile, are home to just one Republican incumbent each, and it's eminently possible to draw maps that would flip both of those districts. The legal landscape, however, is another issue.

While the federal courts have refused to police partisan gerrymandering, some state courts have—including one in Maryland that, three years ago, struck down a Democratic-authored map as an illegal partisan gerrymander that violated the state constitution.

That plan would have created seven solidly Democratic seats and an eighth tossup district; as part of a settlement, lawmakers agreed to leave that final seat firmly in Republican hands.

The case never reached the state's highest court, so it's possible an 8-0 Democratic map might pass muster, but there's no way to know in advance. (It bears noting that a majority of justices on the Maryland Supreme Court were appointed by Republican Larry Hogan.)

Oregon's map, which had a 5-1 split in favor of Democrats, was also the subject of a challenge. It was ultimately upheld by the state Supreme Court, which found that it did not violate a state law forbidding lawmakers from drawing districts "for the purpose of favoring any political party." Democrats could, however, potentially repeal that statute with a simple majority vote.

Reclaiming authority over the process
Democrats elsewhere could also begin the process of amending their state constitutions to give them wider latitude over redistricting.

Such discussions are furthest along in California, which, as the largest state in the union, is also the biggest prize. And amending its constitution is easier than it is in many other states—though not easy.

To do so, two-thirds of the legislature would have to refer an amendment to voters, who would then need to approve it with a simple majority. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who's aggressively advocated for a robust response to Texas Republicans, has suggested that he could call a special session and ask lawmakers to refer a proposal to voters this fall. (Democrats hold wide supermajorities in both chambers.)

Such a measure, he says, would not undo the state's commission but instead ask voters to approve a temporary map that would be used for the rest of the decade, starting next year. According to a report from KCRA, the proposal would retain "California's original congressional district maps if Texas or other states also retain their original district maps."

Though no temporary map has yet been shared publicly, media reports say one plan would target five Republican seats. (The state's current map last elected 43 Democrats and nine Republicans.)

The other four blue states in this group face tougher obstacles. Like California, Colorado (whose eight seats are evenly divided between the parties) and Washington (which has an 8-2 split in favor of Democrats) both require a two-thirds legislative supermajority to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot.

Democrats in both states are, however, short of that mark. Since Republicans would have zero interest in empowering Democrats to redraw the maps, Colorado and Washington are out—at least for now. In Colorado, though, Democrats are just one seat shy in each chamber, so they may be in a stronger position after the 2026 midterms.

Colorado does offer an alternative option. Apart from California, it's the only other blue state with a redistricting commission that also allows voters to place amendments on the ballot through the initiative process by gathering a sufficient number of signatures.

However, unlike in most states, which require only a simple majority to approve an amendment, Colorado has a higher 55% threshold, whether an amendment is referred by the legislature or initiated by citizens. Any amendment would also have to address a 2003 state Supreme Court ruling that forbade mid-decade redistricting.

That leaves New Jersey (with nine Democrats and three Republicans) and New York (where Democrats have a 19-7 advantage). New Jersey allows lawmakers to put amendments before voters in one of two ways: by passing them with a simple majority in two separate sessions of the legislature, or with a three-fifths supermajority once.

Democrats have the numbers to take the latter route, but with all 80 members of the Assembly up for reelection this year, they may not be inclined to do so. And even if they were to take up the mantle, the deadline to put a measure on the ballot this November just passed, so the soonest they could have voters weigh in would be next year.

New York is harder still. There, amendments only require a majority vote, but they must be approved in two legislative sessions, separated by an intervening election. As a result, the earliest any proposal could appear on the ballot would be 2027.

At a Monday press conference, Gov. Kathy Hochul promised to consider "every option to redraw our state congressional lines as soon as possible," adding she would "also look at litigation strategies." Such a strategy could involve filing a lawsuit seeking to invalidate the state's congressional map, which she herself signed into law last year.

Winning at the ballot box
There are also two more blue-leaning states where Democrats don't currently have total control over state government but could in the near future: Virginia, where they'd need to win back the governorship this fall; and Minnesota, whose tied state House will be up next year.

Virginia (where Democrats won a 6-5 edge last year) is another commission state, and its process for amending its constitution is similar to New York's. But in Minnesota (where the delegation is split 4-4), there are no such restrictions.

On top of that, Democrats could potentially win back the legislature in swingy Wisconsin next year and replace the current Republican-slanted map, which has allowed the GOP to win six of the state's eight seats from 2022 onward. (Lawsuits challenging the map are also pending.)

Democrats also have a shot at winning back power in Pennsylvania in 2026, though the state Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling in 2018 concluding that partisan gerrymandering violates the state constitution. Consequently, any changes Democrats could conceivably make to Pennsylvania's congressional lines would have to be limited.

As for swingy Michigan and Arizona, where Democrats could likewise find themselves in charge come 2027, both have particularly robust independent commissions. Democrats would likely be reluctant to touch them because doing so would open the door to extreme gerrymanders should control ever flip back to the GOP.

There's one final, and very important, issue for the states considering plans to revisit their redistricting commissions: convincing voters to vote "yes." These commissions have generally been very popular: California's passed in 2010 by a 61-39 vote; New York's by a 56-42 margin in 2014; Colorado's in a 71-29 landslide in 2018; and Virginia's by a 66-34 spread in 2020, to take some more recent examples.

But even 2020 was a long time ago, given the radical changes wrought on American politics by Donald Trump. Democratic leaders like Newsom believe voters understand the threat and are ready to respond.

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Sharon Lawrence
Information Bank
7m

I live in San Marcos which is ground zero for the gerrymander. Feel free to ask me any questions.

FYI, Take a look at state senate district 21 if you want more examples of the miserable conditions here.

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