Coronavirus inside no 10.

CORONAVIRUS | INSIDE NO 10

Haunted, exhausted and under attack as coronavirus death toll doubles

The realisation has struck No 10 that Britain has lost control of Covid-19, but it should at least look as though it is doing something

(photo Boris Johnson, left, at No 10 last week followed by health secretary Matt Hancock, chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance and chief medical officer Chris Whitty after a coronavirus news conference)

Tim Shipman and Caroline Wheeler

Sunday March 15 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times

His hero Winston Churchill used to declare, “Action this day!” in a crisis. Yesterday morning, as Boris Johnson gathered his inner circle in the cabinet room at Downing Street, his message was more prosaic but no less urgent.

“We need to be taking all measures necessary,” he said. “We must work around the clock.”

News had reached the prime minister that the coronavirus infection rate is accelerating faster than the government’s model had predicted. Yesterday the UK death toll doubled to 21. It was a moment when theory collided with brutal reality.

“They aren’t enjoying this much,” said one colleague of the prime minister and his team. “They look haunted. They know his entire premiership will be defined by the decisions they make.”

For much of last week the government had promoted a strategy of delaying the worst of the virus, acting only where there was clear scientific proof that it would save lives.

On Thursday all those with symptoms were urged to self-isolate for a week. While other countries banned mass events, Johnson followed the advice of the government’s medical and scientific experts that it would do little good. But at 10pm on Friday it was announced that mass events will be banned at the end of this week. What changed?

First, there was a view that it was better to be seen to be acting even if the benefits are marginal. “Stopping mass gatherings may not do much good but it has very little downside,” said a government source.

“Closing schools is different. That is bad policy. It causes workforce shortages as people seek childcare.”

Second, growing reports of problems on the ground convinced Johnson’s team that parts of the system are already falling over. On Friday medics at King’s College Hospital in London, which has dealt with 18 cases of Covid-19, told Public Health England: “We are drowning.”

A Whitehall official said: “We are looking at Italy and there are fears that it starts happening here sooner rather than later. You’re going to see people dying in hospital corridors soon.”

In the emergency planning sector, local resilience forums are demanding instructions from central government. “The scientific advisory group and Public Health England have melted down in the past 24 hours,” said a Whitehall source.

“This is now a full-on Hollywood movie horror show. The local resilience forums are screaming for help.”

The government’s response begins each day at 8.15am with a meeting chaired by Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s most senior official, and Mark Sweeney, director-general of the cabinet secretariat.

At 9am the prime minister takes charge of a second meeting, led by “the three amigos” who have fronted the government’s press conferences — Johnson; Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer; and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser. Others present include Matt Hancock, the health secretary, adviser Sir Edward Lister and No 10 communications chief Lee Cain.

Insiders say Cummings and Vallance have forged a close partnership. Cabinet Office Cobra meetings follow in the afternoon, some chaired by Johnson, some by Hancock and others by officials.

(photo ‘The three amigos’: Johnson with chief medical officer Chris Whitty, left, and Sir Patrick Vallance, chief scientific adviser)

At 6pm Cain and Alex Aiken, executive director of government communications, lead a cross-government messaging meeting. Johnson and his top team have a catch-up from about 6.30pm.

Despite differences between British and overseas medics there seems to be no disagreement between the health experts and political aides inside government over the main strategy, which is to use the most draconian measures when they are likely to have maximum effect to stop the NHS collapsing.

In private, there have been tensions between Downing Street and Public Health England over how that strategy is communicated. A briefing for reporters with senior health officials was cancelled yesterday without explanation.

David Halpern, of the Whitehall “nudge unit”, was “given a bollocking” last week by Cain when he introduced the phrase “herd immunity” into the debate, giving the impression that the government wants 60% of the population to be infected.

Instead the view is that the virus is unstoppable and that artificially suppressing it could lead to a second wave of infections next winter when the restrictions are lifted, killing more.

“As you lift the measures, it comes back harder,” a senior government source said. “Some people seem to be under the misapprehension that we can stop it. That ship has sailed globally. What we need to do is mitigate and safeguard as many people as possible.”

In a Cobra meeting on Thursday, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, said she would take a different tack on shutting down mass events. “She openly said it wouldn’t make any health difference but it would send the right message,” said a government official.

That approach has now been adopted in London. The problem is that the details are being worked out in the middle of the crisis. A Whitehall official said the government’s pandemic plan “was always a strategic plan — it never went into the operational detail”.

One MP said Whitty and Vallance are “human shields” for Johnson but if the death rate is higher than other countries then “that won’t be enough”.

A longstanding Tory said: “Boris is a Darwinian. He believes in the survival of the fittest. His whole career is based on that. But the danger is that we have more deaths than comparable countries.”

Another MP observed that the political peril is double-edged since those most likely to die are the elderly: “The problem is that it is Tory voters who will be dying.”

Meet the PM’s inner circle of experts

‘The three amigos’
The government’s response is primarily in the hands of three men, supported by a few select politicos and experts.

Boris Johnson
The prime minister warned last week that many more families would lose loved ones “before their time”.

Chris Whitty
The 53-year-old chief medical officer previously led the Department for International Development’s response to the ebola outbreak in Africa and has been praised for his calm demeanour under fire.

Sir Patrick Vallance
The government’s chief scientific adviser has been used repeatedly as the public face of the response and has forged a close partnership with Dominic Cummings.

The politicos

Dominic Cummings
Johnson’s senior aide chairs the 8.15am crisis meeting.

Matt Hancock
The health secretary chairs two of the Cobra emergency committee meetings held each weekday.

Lee Cain
No 10 communications director leads a daily message meeting at 6pm.

The experts

Dr David Halpern
The head of the government’s “nudge unit”, which advises on public behaviour. He was “bollocked” last week for loose talk about “herd immunity”.

Katharine Hammond
The director of the civil contingencies secretariat leads a nationwide network of local resilience forums.

Lieutenant-General Doug Chalmers
Cobra military representative — helps co-ordinate plans for the armed forces to support public services under civil contingencies legislation.

Professor Yvonne Doyle
The medical director and director of health protection at Public Health England is the main link between No 10 and the NHS.