Red Full Heal Pad Skip 2025

TLDR

Full Heal Pad skip adds about 37% risk for an average timesave of 18 seconds.

Added risks in a vacuum:
- Tower Rival (TBD?)
- Haunter (8.91%)
- Gastly (5.94%)
- Gastly (5.94%)
- Rocket 2 (0% [or 18.66%])
- Rocket 3 (11.19%)
- Arbok (3.91%)
- Silph Rival (9%)

NEW ADDED RISK TOTAL (without Tower Drowzee range)
1 - (0.9109 * 0.9406 * 0.9406 * 1 * 0.8881 * 0.9609375 * 0.91) = 37.4137321% chance of dying

Risk Threshold:
((2.205 * 18) / 37) = 1.0727027

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Preface
- Route
- Risk Calculation
- Time Calculation
- Money

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PREFACE

This is an updated perspective on how viable one of the "insane" alternative routes is in Red. Celadon Center skip AND Heal Pad skip, or "Full Heal Pad skip", offers the option of adding ~37% risk in the middle of the run for an 18 second timesave on average. Compared to many risky late game options, yolo Lorelei being the best example, full Heal Pad skip allows for a much earlier reset point if the risk doesn't pay off. Even then a runner can still just yolo E4 if the run is still alive after attempting full Heal Pad skip.

With this, a WR attempt could consider going for Full Heal Pad skip in Tower if their HP lines up. This strat also retains the option of going for various yolos in the E4 if needed. Whereas, something like EQless is a more significant deviation from the normal route (mostly menuing) and doesn't appear to offer this flexibility with E4 yolo for example.

Full Heal Pad skip appears more viable now given the current risk tolerance for WR attempts. Because WR times were worse back in 2018, previous analyses of this strat were more theoretical/speculative.

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ROUTE

ROUTE 10
- DON'T get Max Ether.

UNDERGROUND
- Get Elixir.

CELADON MART
- 11 X Acc, 5 X Special, 5 X Speed

FLY MENU:
- Moves: Rock Slide, Thrash, Thunderbolt, Bubblebeam.

LAVENDER
- Rival: TB, TB, BB, Thrash, Thrash x2 (OHKO only by crit).
- Gastlies: RS.
- Get both Elixirs.
- Haunter: RS (+ BB).
	> Rock Slide (32/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 84.9960%).
- Get Rare Candy.
- Rocket 1: TB x3.
	> Golbat: TB OHKO.
- Rocket 2: X Spec, TB, Thrash (OHKO)
	> or TB + Thrash (x1-2): (23/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 65.7051%)
- Rocket 3: TB x2, Thrash.
	> Raticate: (36/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 93.5697%)
- Fly to Celadon -> DON'T CENTER.

SILPH CO.
- Teach Horn Drill over Thrash, Bike.
- Take stairs to 5F -> Get Elixer.
- Arbok: X Acc, Drill (X Speed if para).
- Silph Rival: X Acc + X Spd + Drill, Drill, RS, Drill x2.
- Elixir #1.
- Rocket: X Acc, BB, Drill x2.
- Giovanni: X Acc, Drill x2, BB, Drill
- Take Lift to 10F, Get EQ + Rare Candy, Dig.
- Fly to Celadon -> DON'T CENTER.

CYCLING ROAD
- Snorlax menu:
- Get Candy + PP Up.

SAFARI ZONE
- Enter Fuchsia: use PP Up on Horn Drill, Teach EQ over Rock Slide.

FUCHSIA GYM
- Juggler 1: EQ x4
- Can candy x1 or x2 here depending on HP
- Juggler 2: EQ x2 (+TB).
- Koga: EQ x3, use Elixir #2

**proceed as normal**

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RISK CALCULATION

The original risk calculations too harshly assumed that any unfavorable outcome was to be classified as a "death". Also net risks and net timesaves on Silph Rival were misunderstood and ascribed too harsh of values. Now this strat benefits from the standard supply of Paralyze Heals, which make Arbok outcomes more favorable.


ORIGINAL ADDED RISK TOTAL (too harsh)
1 - [0.85 * 0.94 * 0.94 * 0.914 * 0.95 * 0.85 * 0.75] = 58.4257309% chance of dying

NEW ADDED RISK TOTAL (with Tower Drowzee range)
1 - (0.9109 * 0.9406 * 0.9406 * 0.8134 * 0.8881 * 0.9609375 * 0.91) = 49.0923297% chance of dying

NEW ADDED RISK TOTAL (without Tower Drowzee range)
1 - (0.9109 * 0.9406 * 0.9406 * 1 * 0.8881 * 0.9609375 * 0.91) = 37.4137321% chance of dying


Tower Rival (TBD?)
- Not setting up on Growlithe means something needs to be accounted for here.
- Ivysaur potion range = 13HP or less. 12.5% for Rival to use potion. Only 1/39 thrash puts Ivysaur into potion range lol.
Haunter (8.91%)
- Death Assumptions: non-OHKO Rock Slide -> Night Shade or Confuse Ray hit or Lick para
- 0.15 * (0.33 + 0.33*0.5 + 0.33*0.3) = 8.91%
- Therefore 8.91% is a conservative estimate.
Gastly (5.94%)
- Death Assumptions: non-OHKO Rock Slide -> Night Shade or Confuse Ray hit or Lick para
- 0.1 * (.33 + .33/2 + .33*0.3) = 5.94%
Gastly (5.94%)
- Death Assumptions: non-OHKO Rock Slide -> Night Shade or Confuse Ray hit or Lick para
- 0.1 * (.33 + .33/2 + .33*0.3) = 5.94%
Rocket 2 (18.66% or 0%)
- (16/39) * ((0.25*1) + (0.25*0.55*0.25) + (0.6*0.25) + (0.25*0.08203125)) = 18.661859%
- 0% if xspecial on Koffing.
Rocket 3 (11.19%)
- Death Assumptions: Rattata QA crit, or Raticate QA crit, or Thrash range miss -> Hyper Fang or Tackle Crit.
- These assumptions seem too harsh...
- 0.03515625 + 0.046875 + (3/39) * (0.33*1 + 0.33*0.95*0.1875 + 0.33*0) = 11.19375%
- 0.046875 + (3/39) * (0.33*1 + 0.33*0.95*0.1875 + 0.33*0) = 7.678125% [remove Rattata QA death]
- (3/39) * (0.33*1 + 0.33*0.95*0.1875 + 0.33*0) = 2.990625% [remove ALL QA deaths]
Arbok (3.91%)
- Assumes only crit bite = Death.
- 0.25 * 0.15625 = 3.90625%
Silph Rival = (25% - 16%) = 9%
- (25% pidgeot risk) - (16% risk mitigated from no Gyarados Hydro Pump).
- This is a bit handwavy/hard to calculate exactly.

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TIME CALCULATION

(Full breakdown coming soon when completely finalized)

Pros Average = -62.359552
Pros Best = -65.0233

Cons Average = 44.35
Cons Best = 44.35

Net Average = -18.009552
Net Best = -20.6733

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Heal Pad Skip Level ups

Heal pad skip results in 2 additional bad level ups during the Tower split. However there are 2 good level splits during the Tower split that are NOT under red bar during the normal route. So the 2 new bad level ups were never good to begin with. Therefore no new bad level ups are introduced and the net result is a wash.


SKIP HEAL PAD
L33 after final Gastly. (bad level up)
L34 after Drowzee. (bad level up)
L35 after Pidgeot.
L36 after Alakazam.
L37 after Marowak. (bad level up)
L38 after Rhyhorn.
L39 after 1st juggler final Drowzee. (bad level up)
L40 after Muk.
TOTAL: 4 bad level ups

WITH HEAL PAD
L33 after 1st Zubat.
L34 after Raticate.
L35 after Gyarados.
L36 after Alakazam.
L37 after Marowak. (bad level up)
L38 after Nidoqueen. (bad level up)
L39 after 2nd juggler Drowzee.
L40 after 2nd Koffing.
TOTAL: 2 bad level ups

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MONEY

Shop one:
- Viridian City
- BUY = 3 pokeballs
- 3175 - 600 = 2575 remain

Shop two:
- After Brock
- BUY = 8 potion
- 4051 - 2400 = 1651 remain

Shop three:
- After SS ANNE
- SELL = TM34, nugget
- BUY = 3 Repel, 3 para heal
- 11390 + 1000 + 5000 - 1050 - 600 = 15740 remain

Shop four:
- Celadon City
- BUY = TM07, 9 Super Repel, 3 Super Potion, 1 Poke Doll, 1 Soda Pop, 1 Fresh Water
- X Items = 12 X Acc, 3 X Special, 5 X Speed
- 24331 - 2000 - 4500 - 2100 - 1000 - 300 - 200 = 14231
- 14231 = 11400 - 1050 - 1750 = 31 remain