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Aexoden

FE League Playoff Implications 2018-08-27

Aexoden
Aug 27th, 2018
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  1. Free Enterprise League Playoff Scenarios
  2. 2018-08-27
  3. penguin8r / neerrm / EizanTayama / ScratchDragon
  4.  
  5. The following data is rounded significantly. It's meant to give a rough overview
  6. of what happens depending on the outcome of the next race. Clinching a
  7. position means that exact position. I will add "at least" if it's just a lower
  8. bound. The numbers/scenarios come directly from my software, so should be
  9. accurate. Any accompanying commentary is from my personal analysis of the
  10. situation and could be flawed.
  11.  
  12. elmagus:
  13. * These are some of the most confusing scenarios ever, because the only way elmagus gets into the play-in is if 6 more players reach 12 points. There are only 7 players in a position to do so, so the points have to be distributed just right.
  14. * Clinches at least 12th place if penguin8r finishes 1st or 2nd and ScratchDragon does not finish exactly 3rd.
  15. * Has a 0.1% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if EizanTayama finishes 2nd and Scratchdragon wins.
  16. * Has a 0.1% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if the finishing order is penguin8r, EizanTayama, ScratchDragon, neerrm.
  17. * Has a 0.1% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if the finishing order is neerrm, EizanTayama, penguin8r, ScratchDragon.
  18. * Has a 0.5% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if EizanTayama wins and ScratchDragon finishes 2nd.
  19. * Has a 0.5% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if the finishing order is EizanTayama, neerrm, penguin8r, Scratchdragon.
  20. * Has a 0.5% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if the finishing order is EizanTayama, penguin8r, ScratchDragon, neerrm.
  21. * Has a 5% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if neerrm finishes 1st or 2nd and ScratchDragon beats EizanTayama.
  22. * Has a 6% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if the finishing order is neerrm, EizanTayama, ScratchDragon, penguin8r.
  23. * Has a 12% chance of falling to the 13-16 play-in if the finishing order is EizanTayama, neerrm, ScratchDragon, penguin8r.
  24. * Uh, I don't even know how to simplify this one. Worst playoff scenario ever.
  25.  
  26. Nightdew
  27. * Has an 84% chance of earning at least 12th place if EizanTayama finishes 3rd and penguin8r finishes 1st or 2nd.
  28. * Has a 78% chance of earning at least 12th place if EizanTayama finishes 2nd and penguin8r finishes 1st or 3rd.
  29. * Has a 62% chance of earning at least 12th place if EizanTayama finishes 1st and penguin8r finishes 2nd or 3rd.
  30. * Has a 25% chance of earning at least 12th place if EizanTayama finishes 4th or EizanTayama finishes 3rd and penguin8r finishes 4th.
  31. * Has a 22% chance of earning at least 12th place if EizanTayama finishes 2nd and penguin8r finishes 4th.
  32. * Has a 16% chance of earning at least 12th place if EizanTayama finishes 1st and penguin8r finishes 4th.
  33. * This more or less boils down to keeping EizanTayama, ScratchDragon and neerrm all down. Kind of hard when one of them gets at least 3 points.
  34.  
  35. bigdunka
  36. * Still has a chance at earning 12th place as long as neither penguin8r nor EizanTayama is 4th.
  37. * Is most likely in the 13-16 play-in game, but can retain a small chance at the 17-20 play-in game if penguin8r is 4th and EizanTayama is 1st or 2nd.
  38.  
  39. couch_23
  40. * Maximizes chances at the 13-16 play-in at about 85% as long as EizanTayama is not 1st. Otherwise, it falls to 71%.
  41.  
  42. Dragondarch
  43. * Is eliminated from the 13-16 play-in if EizanTayama is 1st.
  44. * Otherwise, has worse chances at the 13-16 play-in the better EizanTayama does.
  45.  
  46. ScratchDragon
  47. * Is guaranteed at least a play-in game. Also can finish in 1st place. Not a humongous range there or anything. Performance in this match is key for setting things up, however.
  48. * Retains 1st place possibility with a victory and a 3rd or 4th place finish by penguin8r.
  49. * Retains 2nd place possibility with a victory.
  50. * Retains 4th place possibility with a 2nd place finish, if EizanTayama wins, neerrm comes in 3rd, and penguin8r finishes 4th.
  51. * Otherwise, a 2nd place finish guarantees 5th-8th.
  52. * Secures at least 12th place with a 3rd place finish as long as penguin8r isn't 4th.
  53. * With a 3rd place finish and penguin8r 4th, has a tiny <1% chance at falling to the 13-16 play-in.
  54. * With a 4th place finish will most likely be in the 13-16 play-in. However a small 1% chance at the 17-20 play-in remains if EizanTayama finishes 1st or 2nd.
  55.  
  56. neerrm
  57. * Retains 2nd place possibility with a 1st place finish if penguin8r is not 2nd.
  58. * Retains 3rd place possibility with a 1st place finish otherwise.
  59. * Retains 4th place possibility with a 2nd place finish if EizanTayama wins and ScratchDragon finishes 3rd.
  60. * Otherwise, a 2nd place finish guarantees finishing 5th-8th.
  61. * If finishing 3rd, will most likely finish in at least 12th place, with a small chance (up to 12%) of ending up in the 13-16 play-in.
  62. * The chance of ending up in the play-in is higher the worse penguin8r does.
  63. * With a 4th place finish will be in the 13-16 play-in as long as EizanTayama is 3rd.
  64. * Otherwise, has a 1% chance at the 17-20 play-in as well.
  65.  
  66. chocosura
  67. * Has a 95% chance at the 17-20 play-in if EizanTayama finishes 4th.
  68. * Has an 87% chance at the 17-20 play-in if EizanTayama finishes 3rd.
  69. * Has a 24% chance at the 17-20 play-in if EizanTayama finishes 1st or 2nd.
  70. * Can't do better than the 17-20 play-in.
  71.  
  72. Obdajr
  73. * Stays alive for the 17-20 play-in if EizanTayama finishes 4th. Is otherwise eliminated.
  74.  
  75. fcoughlin
  76. * Regardless of today's result will retain a chance at ending up the 17-20 play-in at worst.
  77. * Can retain possibility at 3rd place if EizanTayama is 1st and penguin8r is 4th.
  78. * penguin8r finishing in 1st will reduce the odds of falling to the 17-20 play-in.
  79.  
  80. rmccown
  81. * With two remaining matches, a whole lot can happen for rmccown.
  82. * Will retain a possibility at the 17-20 play-in if ScratchDragon or penguin8r finishes 4th and either the other or neerrm finishes 3rd.
  83. * Otherwise, is guaranteed at least the 13-16 play-in.
  84.  
  85. Xyrak
  86. * No matter what happens, can end up in either of the two play-in games or in 12th place or better.
  87. * Will slightly reduce odds at the 17-20 play-in if EizanTayama finishes in 3rd or 4th.
  88.  
  89. Kirchin
  90. * Will have a 13% chance at avoiding a play-in if ScratchDragon or neerrm finishes 4th.
  91. * Otherwise, will have a 4% chance at avoiding a play-in.
  92. * The match doesn't really significantly affect anything otherwise.
  93.  
  94. EizanTayama
  95. * Can finish anywhere from 3rd place to no playoffs. Two matches remain to explain this huge range.
  96. * With a 1st place or 2nd place finish will clinch at least a play-in game.
  97. * Will remain alive for either play-in game even with a 4th place finish.
  98. * The better the finish, the better the odds, obviously.
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