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- There was a discussion recently about the probabilities of flipped edges in scrambles, and I decided to do the calculations. I did it for edges and corners, and for including buffer flips (column called "buffer") and the more relevant figures for ignoring buffer ("true"). I'll list the number of cases of each (adds up to 12!*2^11 and 8!*3^7 as appropriate), and the probabilities (aggregating once it gets below 0.001%). Hopefully I didn't screw up, the results seem sensible enough. I don't know if anyone has done these exact statistics before, if so I can check my numbers I guess, if not someone could maybe check my numbers if they feel like it.
- edges
- n buffer true
- 0 595003712413 619795533763
- 1 297501856200 285105945531
- 2 74375464086 65078531045
- 3 12395910560 9813429285
- 4 1549489095 1097554590
- 5 154948464 96843054
- 6 12912900 6994218
- 7 921888 422730
- 8 57915 21615
- 9 3080 935
- 10 198 33
- 11 0 1
- 12 1 0
- n buffer true
- 0 60.653 63.180
- 1 30.327 29.063
- 2 7.582 6.634
- 3 1.264 1.000
- 4 0.158 0.112
- 5 0.016 0.010
- 6+ 0.001 0.001
- corners
- n buffer true
- 0 45273046 49045792
- 1 30181968 28924448
- 2 10060904 8383872
- 3 2235184 1583680
- 4 373380 217280
- 5 48944 22848
- 6 5992 1792
- 7 336 128
- 8 86 0
- n buffer true
- 0 51.342 55.620
- 1 34.228 32.802
- 2 11.410 9.508
- 3 2.535 1.796
- 4 0.423 0.246
- 5 0.056 0.026
- 6+ 0.007 0.002
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