a guest Apr 20th, 2016 65 Never
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- Montana, Trump's doing well:
- Pseudo poll https://www.isidewith.com/2016-republican-primary-poll/801555698/9333326
- And it's open primary which usually helps http://www.openprimaries.org/states_montana
- Montana is winner take all http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MT-R
- South Dakota:
- Pseudo poll https://www.isidewith.com/poll/801555698/9333341
- SD is closed primary and that "poll" was weird, so I can't say how that will go http://www.openprimaries.org/states_south_dakota
- SD is winner take all http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SD-R
- West Virginia:
- Like others, a recent and reliable poll hasn't been taken, but it has this again https://www.isidewith.com/2016-republican-primary-poll/801555698/9333348
- It seems like 22/34 of WV's delegates will go to the winner http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/WV-R
- I think his odds are good there. He swept the South http://graphics.wsj.com/elections/2016/all-primary-caucus-results-2016/
- Again, no reliable polls, here's the best I could do https://www.isidewith.com/2016-republican-primary-poll/801555698/9333327
- Looking at the map above: NE is in the area of Kansas and Iowa, which Cruz won- perhaps the Midwest likes him. Why, I have no idea.
- If Trump can take Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia then he can afford to lose Nebraska. None of them have good recent polls, though, so it's anyone's guess how that goes. As for the other three states, which are proportional, he should take roughly his national average. Having won AZ and NV, it's realistic to think he'll do well enough in NM, but I don't think anyone has any idea how he does in the Northwest.
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