Estimates: Syrian Family Reunion in Germany

Estimates for Syrian Family Reunions in Germany

German "experts" predict that just 0.25 family members are to follow per 1 eligible Syrian applicant already in Germany. They claim that just a few ten thousand will come. Do those numbers hold or are they trying to fool the public again?

Average Syrian refugee household size: 6.3 members
Range: 1 - 17 members
50% are younger than 15 years

www.acted.org/sites/default/files/rapport-files/acted_-_food_security_and_livelihoods_assessment_-_northern_jordan_august_2013.pdf

Experience from Canada:

>Syrian refugees are arriving in Halifax with lots of kids in tow, and that means it is taking longer to find homes to accommodate families of up to a dozen people. The average Syrian family coming to Nova Scotia has seven members, according to Gerry Mills, director of operations for the Immigrant Services Association of Nova Scotia. Some are as large as 10 or 12 people, which means it will take time to find them somewhere to live.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/syrian-refugees-halifax-housing-families-1.3413716

Government-Assisted Refugees (GAR) in Canada are similar to a family reunion in Germany. They found that

>GARs have larger family sizes than PSRs [Privately Sponsored Refugees]; the majority have 5 to 8 persons per application; some families have 10 to 14 persons. Settlement efforts will need to prepare for the large number of children as nearly 60% of GARs are 14 years old or younger.
http://www.cheo.on.ca/uploads/Refugee%20Resources/Syrian%20Refugee%20Profile%20Addendum%20Jan%202016.pdf

With estimated 390,000 Syrians in Germany who might be eligible to apply for family reunion, we can expect around 5-6 family members to follow. Assuming only 300,000 apply, then 1,500,000 to 1,800,000 Syrians will follow. If 400,000 eligibles apply, then it's between 2,000,000 to 2,400,000 family members.

The reports above found that most (usually 80% and higher) have no language skills other than Arabic. Their educational levels are years behind that of Western countries. In further reports we find that violence (esp. sexual violence) is an issue in Syria and Syrian refugee populations. See e.g. http://www.cpa.ca/docs/File/Cultural/EN%20Syrian%20Population%20Profile.pdf

When the Greens and other parties demand unlimited family reunion, it means the inflow of 1.5 - 2.5 million mostly unqualified people who are unwilling to culturally adapt and to a large extend won't contribute to Germany for years (perhaps their entire life) but demand resources (housing, schooling, health, etc.) and threaten the social peace.