12/6/22 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

12/06/22 Update, day 286 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

There is currently no indication of RU forces forming assault groups in Belarus, or having the present capability to mount another assault into NW Ukraine.

Belarusian border guards are allegedly sending refugees from Pakistan and Iran to the UA border in order to try and determine areas of high and low UA troop concentration.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

Emergency outages continue in the Kyiv region, with about 50% of residents without electricity.

UA reported that due to RU missile strikes, some 35% of UA energy infrastructure has been damaged, and 70% of that targeted infrastructure was hit multiple times. Allegedly, the power deficit across the country is approximately 20%, a continued improvement from several weeks ago.

Per Forbes, the 12/5 missile attack cost RU some 400-500 million USD. Per the UA government, there has been no observed ballistic missile transfers from China or Iran to RU forces.

Today was Armed Forces Day in Ukraine, and numerous government officials made public statements of support and awards.

Another 60 UA soldiers were exchanged back into UA territory, including POW's from Azovstal and Mariupol. 49 bodies were returned as well.

Approximately 100k residents of Kyiv city and Oblast are fighting for the UA military, accounting for almost 10% of the total force composition.

Per the UA Defense minister, there is currently no need for additional waves mobilization in Ukraine at this point. However, there are great needs for weaponry and equipment/ammo for the existing armed forces. As a consequence of adequate manpower, UA men will no longer be served summonses for recruitment at checkpoints.

Despite the power outages, medical operations are broadly ongoing per the UA ministry of health. Emergency medical care is prioritized above all others. The UA Department of health is preparing 2 levels of medical facilities, for uninterrupted work in areas without power, water, or heating.

If there is a long term blackout, planned non-emergent hospitalizations and operations will be suspended.

Per the UA MoD, RU is heavily degraded in many elements of their missile stockpile. Reportedly, having <13% Iskanders, <35% Kalibr sea/air launched missiles, and large quantities in the thousands of S-300 missiles.

Currently 3.3 million UA children are in need of humanitarian aid, according to UNICEF. Two-thirds of children in Ukraine have been displaced since February. 2,500 schools have been destroyed or damaged. 5 million children do attend school.

Per the UA government, some 27 Billion USD has been allocated thus far for the UA military this year, with 20 billion of that being salaries.

More than 14 million people are still forcibly displaced and have been forced to leave their homes in Ukraine. 6.5 million are internally displaced persons, and more than 7,800,000 are in Europe.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

Strikes continue into the border reasons, depowering large areas.

A UA drone attacked the Kursk region of Russia, striking an oil depot at an airbase here. The circumstances otherwise remain unclear. Satellite photos from yesterdays strike in Engels, seem to indicate a TU-95 heavy bomber was damaged.

UA drones apparently attacked fuel storage near the Slava plant in the Bryansk region of Russia, some 80km from the front lines.

There is a great documentary produced following the battle of Chernihiv, with the 2nd in a 3 part series coming out. It is by far the most detailed description of the fighting NE of Kyiv in the opening months of the war.

Per the UA air force, the reason behind the lack of Shahid-136 drone strikes is that RU has exhausted most of its supplies already received.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

UA Eastern Air Command claims to have destroyed more then 400 air targets since the invasion began, with ~200 cruise missiles, ~12 Helicopters, and ~250 UAV's damaged, plus "dozens of combat aircraft". Reportedly, the unit is working to create a museum of the shot down RU equipment.

UA forces N of Kupyansk, near Dvorichna, may have advanced up given UA statements about positions near Bohdanivske. Should this be the case, then it would indicate a potential UA play towards to the RU border, along the E bank of the Oskil river. This zone has been quiet since the Kharkiv offensive, with reportedly lower levels of troops on both sides present.

NW of Svatove, UA forces continue to skirmish around recently liberated Kyslivka, and the RU strongpoint of Kuzemivka.

RU forces attempted again to counter-attack UA positions near Ploschanka, along the Svatove-Kreminna highway. This was repelled, as UA troops continue to put pressure on the highway via considerable artillery fire.

RU forces around Kreminna are reportedly broadly pinned in by UA forces in the forested regions nearby, to the NW, W, and South. RU supplies via the northern highway here are routinely interdicted.


Siversk/Lysychansk

UA citizens in Severodonetsk and the surrounding area continue to be abducted without trial. There are numerous reports of public executions/hangings by RU forces.

There is no major change around Siversk/Lysychansk, with RU attempts towards the NE,E, and SE fronts. It appears that more RU forces have been redeployed here from Kherson.

There continues to be RU skirmishes to the NE, E, and SE of Siversk with the majority of RU fighting apparently in and around Bilhorivka, where RU forces are trying to dislodge UA troops and threaten potential UA bridgeheads across the river towards Kreminna. A RU assault here was repelled today.


Bakhmut:

In Soledar, RU forces continue to skirmish with UA troops and shelling continues along the major line of contact. RU is continuing attempts to push SW from this area towards Bakhmut city, via Bakhmutske, but are still impeded by UA artillery fire in the open fields.

NE of Bakhmut, the situation has become more concerning, with RU forces increasingly leveraging artillery fire both into the NE suburb of Bakhmut proper, as well as the exurb of Pidhorodne. RU troops appear to trying to push in this area.

To the E of Bakhmut, RU shelling continues to heavily pound  entrenched UA defenses, and RU forces appear to have advanced closer to the large UA defenses in the industrial zone here, further away from the fields.

SE of Bakhmut, RU forces are also on offensive, with the situation remaining unclear. It appears RU forces are reconsolidating their positions here, and pressuring towards SE Bakhmut city proper.

South of Bakhmut, RU forces continue to press on Optyne and Invanhrad, with RU forces and UA troops separated by less then 750 m (2000 ft), as RU troops have taken up residence in an industrial/warehouse collection just across a forested region from the town proper where UA forces are bunkered down. UA defenders hold the area hear, and there is no indication of RU gains past this point.


SW of Bakhmut, RU troops continue to consolidate their control over the riverside towns of Kurdyumivka and Ozarianivka, although there are speculative rumors of UA counterattacks towards Kurdyumivka.



Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

Wagner group reps are apparently trying to recruit UA prison populations in the occupied territories. NE of Avdiivka, around Verkhnotoretske, reportedly a large quantity of RU mobikis deserted their positions, including a number of prisoner recruits. Per the UA MoD, the deserters were executed.

UA forces have pushed RU troops back towards Pisky from Pervomaiske, and also are re-allocating forces towards Vodyane, indicating direct pressure on the RU attempts here over the last several months, which are now being unraveled.

In the SW suburb of Marinka, fierce fighting continues, with RU and UA shelling a scant 2 blocks apart from each other, indicating the intensity of fighting in the suburban area.

UA forces destroyed an electrical substation in Makiivka, NE of Donetsk city.


Mariupol:

The situation in Mariupol remains grim.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis :

RU forces shelled Kryvyi Rih with ballistic missiles (likely S-300), targeting infrastructure.

The Dnipro city government will be moving soviet era monuments.

The alleged RU withdrawal from this region has not manifested itself, with continued UA and RU artillery duels across the front lines.

Fighting continues at Pavlivka and Vuhledar without any sign of RU gains.

An explosion killed an RU occupation official in Melitopol.


Kherson:

The situation in Kherson remains challenging, with RU targeting of civilian infrastructure resulting in casualties and many cold nights for those without power. Currently, 70% of residents have water and 85% have electricity, before todays strikes.

Some 3500 people voluntarily evacuated via train from the Kherson region.

A UA unit filmed themselves crossing the river and erecting a flag on the South bank. While this is not indicative of general UA control, it does appear that RU control over the S bank of the Dnipro is lacking in certain areas, and may have gaps which can be exploited.

RU forces shelled buildings of the Kherson water administration, killing at least one civilian.

Another torture center used by RU forces in Kherson was discovered and identified.

UA deep strikes continue S of the Dnipro in Skadovsk and Chaplynka, and UA shelling continues to target the Kinburn Peninsula.

UA forces may be present in the wetlands of the river SW of Kherson, as RU forces shell into the area over the last 48 hours.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

Odesa was the most affected by RU missiles yesterday during the large salvo, and
Thus far, there has been some 190 Million USD allocated by foreign partners to the UA grain export agreement.

Electricity and water was supplied to some areas in Odesa today.

The Black Sea Fleet remains broadly in port, with concerns about both weather and UA kamikaze drones in the Black sea.

RU air defenses in Sevastopol engaged unknown targets.


General:

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

510x soldiers (Total 92,200)
5x APC
5x tanks
1x Artillery (0x MLRS)
8x vehicles
5x UAV

Subsequent to strikes on RU airfields, RU will strengthen the protection of oil infrastructure.

Per the Polish defense minister, Germany has refused to allow transfer of Patriot missile batteries into Ukraine.

The United States did not provide weapons to Ukraine to carry out strikes outside its sovereign territory, nor did it encourage Kyiv to attack targets on the territory of Russia, per the US State Dept.

The European Union and Norway have signed an agreement under which Norway will transfer 14.5 million euros to support EU missions to train and equip UA defenders.

Russia announced the Vesna human rights organization, which organized protests against the war, is an extremist organization following a sealed court case.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that Hungary will not support the European Union's plans to provide Ukraine with an aid package worth 18 billion euros, blocking the aid package of EU macro-financial assistance.

The RU government is trying to soothe concern about further rounds of mobilization, and Igor Girkin returned from the front lines to Telegram today, apparently bemoaning the lack of equipment, intel, and competence of front line RU force. He had been apparently unable to join multiple units, and ultimately illegally joined a DPR battalion near Svatove.

RU occupation officials have stated that the Ruble will be the sole currency in the occupied territories come 2023.