3/22/24-3/25/24 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

3/5/24-3/6/24 Update, day 758-761 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

During the RU missile barrage across Ukraine on the 24th, a missile crossed into Polish airspace for approximately 39 seconds before returning to UA airspace. The RU  ambassador refused to respond to Polish summons and receipt of formal letter of protest, claiming a lack of evidence.

Poland stated they didn't intercept the missile to avoid it landing on polish civilians, as it was expected to leave PL airspace.

Poland will reportedly increase its troop presence on the eastern border, and is setting up a new helicopter base.

Polish farmers have stated they will end the RU agricultural border blockade due to upcoming Easter holidays. Polish farmers completely blocked 3 checkpoints on the UA border.

The Polish government expects that they will suspend UA grain imports of wheat and corn starting in April. Many of the protesting farmers demands were met, including lifting of restrictions and increased subsidies.

RU missile strikes targeted UA Naftogaz natural gas storage facilities in W Ukraine, which had been part of UA offers to replace RU gas storage capabilities for the EU.

Khinzal aeroballistic missiles were utilized around Lviv.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine:

RU dramatically increased its missile and drone attacks over the weekend as they targeted some 20 power substations across the country. Several hundred thousand households are experiencing rolling blackouts, and damage costs exceed 100 million euros.

On the 22nd, UA intercepted 55/63 UAVs, 35/42 cruise missiles. RU launched an additional 41 ballistic missiles.

On the 23rd, UA intercepted 31/34 UAVs and 0/4 ballistic missiles.

On the 24th, UA intercepted 25/28 UAVs, 18/29 cruise missiles.

Blackouts are scheduled for Cherkasy, Kryvi Rih, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other cities. A dozen people were injured in Kyiv.

Over the last week RU launched 190 missiles, 140 drones, and 700 glide bombs. Sever

RU fired 2 Zircon ballistic missiles from Crimea, moving at reportedly over 7500 km/hr, which led to a delayed alarm. UA claimed to have intercepted said missiles, with debris shown.

RU additionally targeted energy infrastructure at the Dnipro dam with 6 missiles, causing infrastructure damage and a fire. While the 130ft tall reinforced concrete dam remains intact (and would require dozens of tons of explosives precisely detonated to collapse), the energy production has been stopped. Previously, 1000 MW of power were generated from the dam.The energy infrastructure replacement will take at least 2 years. At least one person was killed.

Thus far over 2000 RU missiles have been intercepted since the war began.

An FSB agent who was attempting to join the National police's offensive brigade was arrested for spying.

The UA General in charge of Ground Forces Training Command resigned his post, and plans to take command of a frontline unit.

Kyiv city mayor Vitaly Klitschko handed over equipment to the 4th Rapid Response brigade, noting they had received about 12.3 million USD in equipment since the war began, as the unit continuously transitions between multiple urban battles.

Per the ISW, RU is taking advantage of the lack of UA Air defense munitions to try and sow internal instability and create citizen dissent.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

RDK forces continue to contest territory in RU to the NW of Kharkiv, with no major changes or observations recorded since last Wednesday.

RU struck at Kharkiv electrical infrastructure with 17 S-300 and 2 Iskanders, blacking out the city for some time. The primary powerplant may require a year of work to resume full operations, and water pressure is spotty across the city.

Currently, Kharkiv power generation is supplied by other regions, as the Coal Power Plant #5 has lost its turbines and generators.

The Kharkiv metro resumed operations after 3 days on the 25th, although aboveground trams and trolleys remain out of order.

40% of households have power and 60% have heating, with water broadly restored. 1.3 million people currently live in Kharkiv.

RU reportedly intercepted 2 UA drones over Belgorod.

RU continues to heavily shell the Sumy region, and 54 children were forcibly evacuated from the Shotkinsky border district.


Kupyansk/East Kharkiv:

UA continues to hold territory to the NW of Synkivka as RU forces still remaining here appear to be meager, with the bulk having rotated down towards Lyman.

RU continues to shell Kupyansk with UAV and missiles.


Kreminna/Lyman axis:

RU launched 8 assaults towards Lyman, and apparently moved forward to contest territory just some 500 meters from Terny and the Zherebets river valley highway.

UA drone strikes continue here, with the RU forces making efforts to push along the forest belt while utilizing vehicles in the fields adjoining it. RU airstrikes target Terny itself.

RU troops have additionally pushed further S into the Serebryansk forest region near Kreminna, where the thick trees make infantry combat a closer range affair.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU and UA continue to skirmish near Bilohorivka to the NE of Siversk, as RU has been seen employing more smokescreens here around the industrial area.

RU launched 8 assaults out of Bakhmut to the W, pushing along the highway towards Chasiv yar. UA heavily expended artillery and cluster munitions along this axis, appearing to be the primary cause of an uptick in RU equipment losses this weekend.

RU has not had any measured success further in Ivanivske, although they did successfully push down the hills towards Chasiv Yar.


Avdiivka:

RU launched 10 assaults out of Avdiivka. Reportedly the RU assaults here have decreased due to sustaining equipment and manpower losses from assaults, while RU drone recon has increased. Reportedly RU replenishment is occurring on this axis, with SOF instructors present for new troops.

RU further advanced to the river W of Berdychi and Tonenke, although its unclear exactly whether they have successfully made it across.

RU continues to airstrike the main villages supporting UA movement further W of here.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU continues to focus the bulk of its efforts to the SW of Marinka, launching 25 assaults in the last day. RU forces seized territory to the NE of Novomykhailivka, although their efforts in town appear to have gained no ground since the start of the month.

RU has increased its helicopter strikes around marinka to the W and N.

A new RU military equipment marking was notated, a "hourglass in a diamond", on vehicles transiting along the southern RU supply lines.

58 residents were evacuated from Donetsk to Rivne, including 25 children.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

Over the last 24 hours, RU attacked 9 settlements on the southern from 258 times. 3 assaults were recorded.

The external high voltage power lines to the ZNPP have been restored following damage from RU shelling.

Over 1000 miners were trapped underground during the blackouts in Dnipro oblast, but were successfully brought up to the surface over a day.


Kherson:

RU continues to shell across the river, as volunteers seek to evacuate people from Beryslav. RU launched 1 assault on Krynky, and UA increased its drone attacks on the far side of the river.

RU dropped explosives on a heating/refugee point in Beryslav, injuring 2 people.

RU soldiers executed 3 men in the village of Kohany, and while RU arrested 2 soldiers from Volgograd, the remains have not been returned to their family members.

2060 square km or 40% of the agricultural land in the liberated part of Kherson Oblast has been cleared of UXO. 1530 square km are expected to be farmed this year.

Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea

UA storm shadow strikes appear to have hit the new RU Black Sea Fleet headquarters, as well as damaging 2 more amphibious landing ships. One appears to have been hit amidships and is allegedly suffering a port list at drydock, while the other targeted missile impacted immediately next to the ship, which is allegedly leaking oil and suffered damage.

Odesa power infrastructure was taken offline following the RU missile and drone attacks, which have occurred essentially every day this weekend. Currently there are rotating power windows of 2-3 hours per household.

RU is reportedly moving its field artillery depots out of Crimean warehouses following recent UA strikes.


Russia:

There was a large-scale terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall Concert hall/mall in Krasnohorsk, Moscow. 4 IS-Khorasan Province affiliates killed approximately 139 people, and wounded another 180+. Russian response times were delayed by an hour, and the suspects initially escaped. They were later arrested by a RU officer calling in a tip as they were apparently headed somewhere between the Belarusian and Ukrainian borders.

This is the most deadly terror attack in Russia since the Beslan school massacre in 2004, and highlighted certain failings of the RU security apparatus, as this occurred a scant few miles from the local National Guard base, and following western warnings earlier this month about terror threats at concert halls (which were publicly rejected as provocations by Putin 3 days prior to the attack)

The terrorists were apparently tortured by RU security forces with said media shared online, and 3 more collaborators arrested by RU.

Putin and ultranationalist RU commentators presented the narrative that while this attack was certainly IS (who claimed it on their own social media), they were "guided by someone else", and made unsubstantiated allegations that the terrorists intended to sneak into Ukraine via the heavily defended border.

Anti-immigrant (particularly Tajik) sentiment has increased in RU, with mob violence reported and a Duma member calling for a complete immigration ban until the war ends.

RU Spokesman Dmytro Peskov stated that RU was at war in Ukraine, due to the "intervention of the collective west", before calling on people to mobilize themselves.

Reportedly UA strikes on RU oil refineries have decreased RU production by 12%, and UA rejected articles claiming the US had insisted UA scale back said operations.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 8 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 103 air strikes (including drones), and 91 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

640x soldiers (Total 437,390) [7 day avg 834]
25x APC
11x Tank
3x Air defense
22x Artillery (0xMLRS)
47x vehicles
29x UAV


estimated cost: 134 million USD

total estimated cost- $94.9 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.8 Billion USD over last 30 days.


Overseas:

The British International Fund is allocating 75 million USD in military aid.

The $300 million USD announced by the US was apparently sent back in November, and only recently announced.

The US rejected RU claims that UA was involved in the Crocus Hall terror attack, and IS-K threatened revenge for the obvious torture of its members.