Tainted Frost Lumbercap

Yuh

[b]Item 1[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/13181421535
[u]Sale 1[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198069980430#!/compare/1702339200/1702425600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294709940#!/compare/1702252800/1702339200
Sold for 22 keys

[u]Sale 2[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198294709940#!/compare/1704672000/1705190400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199387756523#!/compare/1705104000/1705190400
Sold for 26 keys

[u]Sale 3[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199387756523#!/compare/1705708800/1705795200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197988159703#!/compare/1705708800/1705795200
24 keys leave buyers inv

https://backpack.tf/item/13844788386 - this one doesn't match
Maybe 23?

[b]Item 2[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/13007141187
[u]Sale 4[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198156622144#!/compare/1702684800/1702944000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1702598400/1702684800
Bulk to qs.store, valued at buyers

[u]Sale 5[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850178158#!/compare/1702771200/1702857600
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199156137868#!/compare/1701302400/1704844800
Sapped Mean Captain matches
Probably sold for buyout, will likely fit into a range

[b]Item 3[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/12703736785
[u]Sale 6[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198963857433#!/compare/1700956800/1701216000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350762685#!/compare/1687910400/1701302400
SCM purchase, untrace

[u]Sale 7[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198350762685#!/compare/1702339200/1702771200
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1702252800/1702339200
Untrace

[u]Sale 8[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199085116273#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049651680#!/compare/1689984000/1704758400
Sold for 21 keys

[u]Sale 9[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198049651680#!/compare/1704758400/1704844800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198117597416#!/compare/1705190400/1705276800
Untrace

[b]Item 4[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/12627770594
[u]Sale 10[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198355333388#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1703376000/1703462400
Untrace, sold to STN, on and off STN

[u]Sale 11[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1704153600/1704240000
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198199907774#!/compare/1704153600/1704240000
13 keys match
https://prnt.sc/vIH0rIE_Z-2n - buyout of 30 keys for STN currently, not too sure but they also buy for ~25 keys

[b]Item 5[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/12541362233
[u]Sale 12[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198850274253#!/compare/1703462400/1703548800
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197993363628#!/compare/1703548800/1703721600
Untrace

[b]Item 6[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/12513852310
[u]Sale 13[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198316071886#!/compare/1705536000/1705622400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199564942025#!/compare/1705536000/1705622400
Bulk dump to STN

[u]Sale 14[/u]
Bought and then redumped to STN, excluding both sales

[u]Sale 15[/u]
Wait what it happened again

[u]Sale 16[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561199026390261#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198079503386#!/compare/1708128000/1708214400
8 keys match

[b]Item 7[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/12467319436
Listed on Mannco

[b]item 8[/b]
https://backpack.tf/item/12411141941
[u]Sale 17[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198089749876#!/compare/1681948800/1702166400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975898479#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000
57 keys 77 ref leaves buyers inventory

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198453530349#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000 - 30 keys match ID here, https://backpack.tf/item/13103696588

https://next.backpack.tf/classifieds/snapshots/Tainted%20Frost%20Lumbercap/65c8326acbc3145879120972 - next snapshot, the buyer has a buy order actually at 1732.46 ref
Feb 11th so keys were valued at uh - https://backpack.tf/suggestion/65b36f60e2a59646680af1e2 - 64.165
1732.46 / 64.165 = 27 keys

Gonna run with 27 keys flat here

[u]Sale 18[/u]
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561197975898479#!/compare/1707696000/1707782400
https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198349848918#!/compare/1707609600/1707696000
Resold for 27 keys 1 ref damn, insane profit

[b]Marketplace sales[/b]
https://marketplace.tf/items/tf2/31326;5;u277
Dec 27th 2023 - $59.99 / $1.677 = 35.71 keys
Jan 28th 2024 - $64.99 / $1.7 = 38.23 keys

Key price averages for Dec 27th 2023:
Dec 24th - $1.64
Dec 25th - $1.64
Dec 26th - $1.72
Dec 27th - $1.7
Dec 28th - $1.68
Dec 29th - $1.68
Dec 30th - $1.68

Average: (1.64 + 1.64 + 1.72 + 1.7 + 1.68 + 1.68 + 1.68) / 7 = 1.677, rounds to $1.68

[u]Sales[/u]
22
26
23/24 (?) <--- This is your 28.5 key sale
21
27
27
36
38

[b]Current Listings[/b]
https://prnt.sc/yDPOfwEeje4E
2 @ 37 keys
1 @ 48 keys
MP seller at $62.99, ~37.05 keys
MP seller at $64.99, ~38.23 keys

Buyers up to 25.1 keys

[b][u]Concluding thoughts[/u][/b]
22 is below buyers
26 is fine
28.5 is fine
21 is below buyers
27 x2 were both buy order dumps
36 and 38 are both marketplace sales

I go 26 - 38 here bap