Dunning-Kruger

My Coworkers Suck But They Don't Know It -- And You Might Not Either, Or, Dunning-Kruger For The Weak

It is the ultimate theory that questions lead to answers, but I have researched the Dunning-Kruger effect for all of two hours and have failed to find that answer, at least to my satisfaction, and proved nothing. Obviously I'm confident enough in  my ability to relate the research, but I think maybe that's a bad sign. According to the wikipedia page on the Dunning-Kruger effect, this article shouldn't exist. That's because, if it's any good, I wouldn't be confident enough to post it. So I do start out with a careful remark: that you should not read this.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect describes two individuals: the weak and the strong. The weak, according to a cognitive bias, recognize their talent as having more value than is accurate, and the strong are the ones who find themselves lacking, also due to bias, even though they are more talented. Of course this sounds totally valid to the average internet user,  especially the one who might wallow in self-pity due to a lack of confidence. To those rare and brave people, the confirmation that their lack of confidence means they are more talented becomes a pithy bit of wisdom indeed. But if you look deeper, something strange is can be seen about the Dunning-Kruger effect that the casual internet user may not notice. The Dunning-Kruger Effect is not logical. Perhaps, I claim, the strong and the weak have made an error in creating such a big haboo about something as tornadic as bias--perhaps they're making fools of themselves by pointing out the Dunning-Kruger Effect's influence over their friends and family--and perhaps the Dunning-Kruger effect is anti-colloquial by definition.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a newly named theory that has been around for a while, and can most simply be construed by the statement: ignorance is bliss. The theory, created in 1999, could exlain why your new coworker's lack of experience could be what gives him that smugness which you, through experience, know to be false-confidence. But really, can you apply knowledge of bias to oneself? Can you really outplay the Dunning-Kruger Effect? Your coworker will eventually reach your level of self-loathing as he naturally gets a little better at cracking down on reports. The thing is, it's not that simple. What if his knowledge of filing increases while his bias goes away? Are we still experiencing the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which is defined by bias? The question I ask is if bias ever goes away, and if it does not, why the hell are we even talking about it? Is the Dunning-Kruger Effect biased itself?

It would appear so. It would appear that Cambridge scientists have cornered popular psychology and created a nice theory which sounds good in your bedroom but can't hold up in practice. When a person increases in skill, the bias goes away and the Dunning-Kruger Effect ceases to play on him.

My, it is nice being this intelligent. I hope I get that promotion I've been wanting. But--wait!

Bias never goes away. Bias is the human condition. Bias has no cornerstone that tells us that the intelligent become less biased, or that knowledge is scopically all-seeing. Bias, or more accurately cognitive bias, is the result of brain-shortcuts which make us think less, and the skilled do not necessarily avoid these shortcuts. Perhaps, then, the only way to rid ourselves of bias is to constantly be learning, and asking questions--about oneself and about others.

I have asked the question, is the Dunning-Kruger Effect bullshit? I may have thought so because of my confidence in certain areas, like writing, and the fact that I am also talented in those areas. But the answer may be that the Dunning-Kruger Effect is seriously relevant, but not for me, or us, because we are students. We have remained students.

So try to learn with me. The Dunning-Kruger effect plays on two types of people: the weak and the strong. It plays on the strong who feel they suck more than they do, despite that extra knowledge. You, right now, want to be this type, because you want to be strong. But you should think again, because the bias which benefits one the most is the bias of the weak, who still have something to learn, and who, remarkably, feel pretty positive in general. The bias of the strong is to be miserable sops about themselves.

Are you strong, or are you weak? And be careful answering that.