Freak Analysis Article

TITLE: ESL One Genting - What are SEA's chances?

With Malaysia’s first ever Dota 2 minor just on the horizon, we weigh in whether it’s possible for TNC or Mineski to take it all.

At ESL One Genting, Southeast Asian Dota 2 isn’t looking quite so good. Overall, Dota 2’s gameplay meta has shifted to favour teamfights, and European Dota 2, which is currently the dominant playstyle, is hard for SEA teams to find good quality scrims against.

The Thirst for Skill
If there is one thing that SEA Dota 2 is known for, it’s aggression. Pitting hot-headed, young and eager gamers in a region scattered by language barriers only meant that the preferred form of communication became skill. In public matches and even casual tournaments, it’s common to see SEA players constantly trying to one-up each other, which translates into killing the opposition.

This thirst for glory naturally gave birth to perhaps one of the most mechanically skilled generation of Dota 2 players. Sure, you have your Miracle-s, SumaiLs and w33has overseas, but in SEA, there were teams upon teams of mechanically gifted Dota 2 players who purely relied on outplaying to triumph the opposition. Ultimately, this was the main reason why the hierarchy for SEA teams was so clear.

Fast forward to 2017, it has become insanely difficult to outplay opponents as they are themselves the very best in their own regions. These players, in the form of Team Liquid, Secret, Virtus.pro, were equally if not, much more skilled than SEA teams. These international teams, supported by a superior infrastructure and culture of understanding overall, should have utterly destroyed any hopes of SEA Dota 2 ever making its mark on the international stage.

Yet, that did not happen. In both current and previous seasons of Dota 2, SEA teams have managed to pull off some of the most spectacular games and tournament performances. In recent memory, TNC managed to close out Virtus.pro convincingly in the semi-finals of MDL Macau 2017 2-0. When we view the game, the reason becomes apparent.


There’s a secret sauce to beating teams: play to their weaknesses. However, in this case, Virtus.pro (VP) tried to play against TNC’s strengths, engaging them in multiple early game fights. VP’s reputation as an early aggression team was true to its name, but it was also their failing as TNC demonstrated better teamfight execution, likely honed over the many years of SEA matchmaking games.

TNC also showed off an interesting strategy utilising a spellcaster Shadow Fiend (with his new 40% cooldown reduction talent), which meant that VP had to break through Kuku’s wall of damage reduction and magic damage to win teamfights. VP drafted well for the meta, but TNC built up items which allowed their heroes to survive longer, which countered VP’s overall strategy of eliminating singular heroes quickly.

[IMAGE]
Kuku, with his 40% cooldown reduction, was able to utilise a variety of items to outplay a surprised VP.

The following game was TNC’s demonstration of confidence after a steady game 1 win. VP looked shaken as TNC managed to outmaneuver the best CIS team in the world to take the game 2 victory in just 25 minutes after a 51 minute-long game 1.

VP engaged TNC on equal ground, and lost. This will apply to every match both Mineski and TNC plays in ESL One Genting. However, simply avoiding the aggression of SEA teams is not enough for a game-winning strategy. A second measure is needed.



The Demand for Teamwork
For European (EU) teams, their style of Dota 2 emphasizes co-ordination. Sure, there are the stars who want to shine, but overall, the pace of high-level EU public matchmaking games mimic that of a TV series: there’s a star, a co-star, and the supporting cast. The star (Carry) and co-star (Mid) will dominate most of the spectacle, while the supporting players (Offlane, 2 Supports) simply do their jobs (in lane and in teamfights) and collect their result at the end of the day.

This is a far cry from the glory-seeking SEA or CIS public matchmaking culture, which has built up an amazing level of co-ordination and teamfighting ability in EU Dota 2 players. At the core of EU Dota is a series of teamfights that wins the game, and every EU Dota 2 team has that in them.

IMAGE:Team Liquid lifting the Aegis of the Immortal, the trophy of The International and hallmark of any Dota 2 team’s career

Team Liquid, in their TI7 and recent minor wins, has shown that EU’s brand of Dota 2 succeeds. Indeed, throughout the myriad of changes Dota 2 has went through, one thing remains for certain: the game is shifting to favour teamfight victories. More precisely, the game favours perfect teamfights, where one team kills another without losing a single member.

For such a teamfight to happen, teamwork is key. Spreading damage, collapsing on stray opponents, using crowd control (slows, stuns and other effects) to prevent effective retaliation is often a huge part of EU Dota 2 teamfights, and less so for SEA Dota 2 teamfights, where an immediate kill is preferred. Over here, the teamfight boils down to the first death. In EU, the teamfight boils down to if the star and co-star gets to receive the final victory, with each other player being expendable.



Observable Tendencies
See this for yourself: In any SEA Dota 2 game, when a SEA team gets a kill against another team, they will often surge forward to seek the opposing team without abandon. Conversely, when they lose a member, they will try to regroup quickly. When tournament nerves strike, each SEA team will demonstrate these tendencies, defaulting to withdraw once they have lost a teammate.

For EU teams, a kill will cause them to move towards an objective instead of seeking out their opponent’s heroes, and a dead member might be an opportunity to start a game-winning teamfight, or simply be a signal to withdraw and defend.

On the professional level, while SEA teams are still trying to adapt to European teams, they still lack the appropriate practice partners to adjust their strategy and intuitions about the game. Similarly, for European teams, they are already well positioned to take the tournament in the current patch. South East Asian teams have to topple the meta entirely, or simply be overwhelmed by it.

Here’s hoping our 2 SEA teams have a few cards up their sleeves to surprise us at ESL One Genting!