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- 467
- AXNT20 KNHC 282342
- TWDAT
- Tropical Weather Discussion
- NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
- 742 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019
- Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
- Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
- America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
- Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
- imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
- Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
- 2315 UTC.
- ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
- Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 23.3N 45.0W at 28/2100 UTC or
- 1280 nm SW of the Azores moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
- central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115
- kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 22N-
- 25N between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
- convection is elsewhere from 21N-27N between 39W-48W. On the
- forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the
- Azores on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
- Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
- possible during the next day or so. Lorenzo is expected to
- gradually weaken through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and
- potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Please read the
- latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
- WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.
- ...TROPICAL WAVES...
- An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 12N southward,
- moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted by model
- diagnostics and TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection
- is from 08N-10N between 30W-36W.
- An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 20N
- southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
- convection is over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
- surrounding waters. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm
- of the wave axis from 10N-15N.
- ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
- The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
- near 10N14W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 06N35W. The
- itcz resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N37W and continues to
- 08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Besides the
- convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely
- scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 26W-30W.
- GULF OF MEXICO...
- A 1021 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
- 32N78W. SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
- moderate convection is along the coast of Texas from 26N-29N
- between 95W-98W. Further S, isolated moderate convection is over
- the SW Gulf from 19N-23N between 94W-99W. Elsewhere, scattered
- moderate to isolated strong convection is over W Cuba. In the
- upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the Gulf
- near 27N93W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf.
- Surface high pressure ridging will prevail across the region
- through Wed.
- CARIBBEAN SEA...
- A tropical wave is along 65W. See above. Scattered moderate to
- strong convection is over Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica.
- Elsewhere, moderate to isolated strong convection is over
- Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia, and NW
- Venezuela. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
- centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N81W.
- Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate
- into the tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean passages through early
- next week. Otherwise gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
- across the Caribbean. A broad area of low pressure may form over
- the western Caribbean by the middle of next week.
- ATLANTIC OCEAN...
- A surface trough is E of the Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection
- is from 22N-26N between 69W-76W. The 1011 mb remnant low of Karen
- is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N58W. A surface
- trough extends S from the low to 28N56W to 24N58W. Scattered
- moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 56W-60W. A 1022 mb
- high is over the E Atlantic near 34N23W.
- Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into
- portions of the SW N Atlantic this weekend and early next week.
- Otherwise, a surface trough will drift westward across the
- forecast waters early next week into the middle of the week.
- $$
- Formosa
- 212
- AXNT20 KNHC 282343
- TWDAT
- Tropical Weather Discussion
- NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
- 743 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019
- Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
- Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
- America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
- Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
- imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
- Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
- 2315 UTC.
- ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
- Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 23.3N 45.0W at 28/2100 UTC or
- 1280 nm SW of the Azores moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
- central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115
- kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 22N-
- 25N between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
- convection is elsewhere from 21N-27N between 39W-48W. On the
- forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the
- Azores on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
- Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
- possible during the next day or so. Lorenzo is expected to
- gradually weaken through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and
- potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Please read the
- latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
- WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.
- ...TROPICAL WAVES...
- An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 12N southward,
- moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted by model
- diagnostics and TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection
- is from 08N-10N between 30W-36W.
- An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 20N
- southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
- convection is over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
- surrounding waters. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm
- of the wave axis from 10N-15N.
- ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
- The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
- near 10N14W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 06N35W. The
- itcz resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N37W and continues to
- 08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Besides the
- convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely
- scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 26W-30W.
- GULF OF MEXICO...
- A 1021 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
- 32N78W. SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
- moderate convection is along the coast of Texas from 26N-29N
- between 95W-98W. Further S, isolated moderate convection is over
- the SW Gulf from 19N-23N between 94W-99W. Elsewhere, scattered
- moderate to isolated strong convection is over W Cuba. In the
- upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the Gulf
- near 27N93W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf.
- Surface high pressure ridging will prevail across the region
- through Wed.
- CARIBBEAN SEA...
- A tropical wave is along 65W. See above. Scattered moderate to
- strong convection is over Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica.
- Elsewhere, moderate to isolated strong convection is over
- Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia, and NW
- Venezuela. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
- centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N81W.
- Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate
- into the tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean passages through early
- next week. Otherwise gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
- across the Caribbean. A broad area of low pressure may form over
- the western Caribbean by the middle of next week.
- ATLANTIC OCEAN...
- A surface trough is E of the Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection
- is from 22N-26N between 69W-76W. The 1011 mb remnant low of Karen
- is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N58W. A surface
- trough extends S from the low to 28N56W to 24N58W. Scattered
- moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 56W-60W. A 1022 mb
- high is over the E Atlantic near 34N23W.
- Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into
- portions of the SW N Atlantic this weekend and early next week.
- Otherwise, a surface trough will drift westward across the
- forecast waters early next week into the middle of the week.
- $$
- Formosa
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