12/9-12/11/23 Ukrainian General Update Language Learner

12/9-12/11/23 Update, day 654-656 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

UA continues to reinforce and mine the Belarusian border, although its noted there are no offensive acts observed on the Belarusian side at this time.

The Hungarian Motor Carriers Union announced it may begin a protest at the Hungarian/Ukrainian border, echoing similar complaints from the Polish blockade. Reportedly, the polish blockade has ended as of late Monday night following police intervention on the Polish side, though there was a single truck that "broke down" blocking all 4 lanes, before it was towed away.

The Slovakian protest action at the border ended last week, but there was a resumption of blocking UA vehicles coming into Slovakia this evening.

Hungarian president Orban's representatives are meeting with US conservative policymaker's this week, allegedly seeking an end to US military support for Ukraine. Reportedly, Orban is interested in blocking both further US and EU aid.

UA Foreign affairs minister met with his Hungarian counterpart for the first time since 2022, where Hungary expressed "Ukraine's restricting of Hungarian national's rights", predominantly in reference to the mandating of Ukrainian language in Western Ukrainian education and municipal programs. The same Hungarian foreign minister stated that Hungary "would not give into any pressure" regarding UA's accession to the EU.

EU ambassadors are generally visiting Zakarpattia oblast to inquire what Hungarian-speaking minorities feel about the stated Hungarian government's concerns. A number of Hungarian nationals in Western Ukraine appealed to the EU and Orban to support UA's accession to the EU.

The Bulgarian parliament voted to override President Radev's veto on transferring 100 soviet APC's to Ukraine.

UA is conducting training in stopping recon elements in the Chernobyl area.

UA imported 300MW of electricity from Romania and Poland for the 3rd time since the winter began to resolve deficits.


Kyiv/ West Ukraine:

RU launched an air attack on Kyiv overnight, with 18 drones and 8 ballistic missiles. The 8 ballistic missiles were all intercepted, as reportedly were the 18 drones. 4 people were injured from fallen debris.

UA has instituted financial penalties for individuals and businesses who violate curfew restrictions, up to 920 USD for individuals and 5500 USD for business who re-offend multiple times.


Per the UA national anti-corruption agency, the number of UA citizens who have reportedly engaged in corruption in 2023 stands at approx 17%, down from 60% in 2010 and 27% in 2019.

Per UK Intelligence, RU is beginning to use its stockpiled missiles to target the UA power grid.

Per the UA air force, while UA pilots tested Swedish Gripen fighters, it is not actively planned for future use at this time.

In Rivne, 4 universities are planning to construct shelters for their students.

Thus far, RU has destroyed 195 medical facilities and damaged 1480.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv city:

RU continues to shell across the border into Sumy and Chernihiv oblast, and UAV's dropping grenades are visualized more often.

Unfortunately, a married pair of noted volunteers doing evacuations from the Kupyansk region were killed in a car accident around Kharkiv city.

An RU soldier exploded when laying a minefield on the Kursk border.


Kupyansk/Kreminna/Svatove

RU has committed more conscripts to assaults NE of Kupyansk into Synkivka, where they are apparently intending to further threaten Kupyansk itself.

RU forces have made some limited progress further E, as they attempt to push further down to the main highway near Orlyanske.

RU forces continue efforts to push out to the W and SW from Kreminna, assisted by airstrikes, although no gains have been visualized.

Due to extremely cold weather, RU has reduced the number of assaults and turned instead to more drone usage. However, it's noted that the cold weather has had a detrimental effect on drone ops and range as well.

Per UA general Syrski, who is in command of the Eastern front, RU is taking roughly 8x as many casualties as UA forces.

The Swedish CIC visited a UA artillery brigade engaged in fighting on the eastern front, including meeting individuals from the 45th brigade who trained in Sweden.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU forces appear to be pushing North of Soledar, contesting villages near Vesele and Rozolivka.

To the NW of Bakhmut, RU forces have mounted further assaults, pushing towards Bohdanivka supported by heavy rocket artillery and drones. The speculation is that RU wants to push further W towards Chasiv yar, the "final town" before Bakhmut.

To the SW of Bakhmut, RU continues attempts to assault towards UA positions in the hills west of Kliischivka, while UA drones appear to target RU targets E of the town and river.


Avdiivka:

RU continues unabated assaults in the region, with a slight reduction in aerial bombardments on the city itself, approx 6-8 bombs and 30-40 artillery barrages. There were 49 reported repelled assaults over the last 24 hours, or one every 30 minutes.

Approximately 40% of all fighting along the frontline occurs near Avdiivka, with the increased presence of RU conscript units and infantry massed assaults. Reportedly some 40,000 RU troops are fighting on this axis.

UA drone strikes continue to heavily interdict RU pushed towards Stepove, as RU airstrikes pound the NW industrial area. RU has advanced towards the wastewater facility near the Avdiivka coke plant.

RU forces appear to be focusing on efforts due N of Avdiivka recently, around the reservoir. RU assaults from the SE and SW continue unabated,without noted success.

The 12 people who remained in the Avdiivka coke plants' single shelter finally agreed to be relocated out of the city. Approximately 1250 people remain in the city.


Donetsk/Luhansk occupied regions:

RU is heavily shelling positions NW of Donetsk near Vodyane with MLRS, and continuing efforts to push further W out of Marinka's ruins. Similarly, we are seeing more RU airstrikes to the SW of donetsk as RU forces attempt to make breakthroughs near Novomykhailivka.

RU is planning to ban the use of UA license plates in the occupied territories, and requiring citizens to have an RU passport before changing to an RU license plate. This is part of the overall RU passportization efforts, and is projected to start in Jan 2024.

RU is additionally leveling threats at citizens who accepted an RU passport but didn't register for military service- a clear sign of further forced mobilization.

RU has opened a "pre-military training center" for teenagers as young as 14 in the occupied Luhansk territories.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

The fighting on the Southern axis remains positional and with minor changes, as RU took control of ground SW of Robotyne. There continues to be noted RU drone activity along the line here.

RU continues to shell Nikopol from Enerhodar and the ZNPP grounds.

In Mariupol, RU occupation officials continue to demolish ruins of buildings damaged last year.

Extreme cold weather in the south has inhibited operations, and RU forces are complaining about UA drone attacks.

There were reported explosions in RU-occupied Melitopol.


Kherson:

UA continues to skirmish around Krynky, with no noted major changes. There has been an increase in RU helicopters launching guided missiles from range here, as UA artillery supports from the far bank.

UA is believed to be consolidating control over additional islands in the Dnipro.

UA drones continue to penetrate into the RU backline, destroying logistics vehicles, as well as targeting RU forces in Oleshky.

RU continues to heavily shell Kherson city.

RU has reduced its number of assaults in the Kherson area and is intensifying the usage of airstrikes.

RU has continued to strike the UA naval forces grouping around Ochakiv.

RU is observed to be increasing its fortifications in S Kherson, as well as intensifying the usage of drones. However, there have been no indications of RU assault groups being formed.

RU has continued FSB raids in the occupied zones of Kherson, looking for UA informants.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

2 Shahed-136 were shot down overnight

Romania will help Ukraine export grain by creating a dedicated site in the black sea port of Constanța, which is planned to be completed in March 2024.


Russia:

Russia has been permitted to participate in the 2024 Paris olympics under a neutral flag, resulting in condemnation from a number of EU states and Ukraine.

RU has passed legislation allowing imposing of fines or mandatory work on foreigners who are convicted of crimes, in place of deporations.

RU also passed legislation that requires RU conscripts and FSB members to hand over their passports to the RU government, limiting their movement abroad.

RU opposition figure Alexi Navalny has reportedly disappeared from his penal colony, and was in poor health last time his lawyers met him.

Reportedly the main military hospital in Moscow is beyond capacity and no longer accepting new patients, to the point where gurneys are set up in the cafeteria's and halls.


General:

UA forces conducted 15 air strikes, and RU forces conducted 61 air strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

1030x soldiers (Total 339,850)
31x APC
19x Tank
0x Air defense
6x Artillery (0xMLRS)
13x vehicles
18x UAV


Overseas:

Following a lack of confidence vote in the right-wing populist PiS party, Poland received a new President in Donald Tusk who has the majority.

Zelensky visited Argentina, and is due to meet with congressional leaders in DC this week, as well as defense officials. The primary focus is passage of further US aid to Ukraine. Please call your elected representatives.

The EU has reached a preliminary agreement allowing for member states to ban the import of RU or Belarusian natural gas. The EU also approved an additional $900 million USD in funding.

The UK will provide UA with 23 speedboats and 20 amphibious APC's, as well as 2 minesweepers.

German Chancellor Scholz stated that while he doesn't expect a quick end to the war, Germany will continue to support for the long run, even "if others weaken", likely alluding to the situation in US politics.