It’s only natural that Beijing might show an interest in a tourism development that aims to lure big-spending Chinese tourists to the shores of Cambodia with the promise of casinos, golf courses and luxury resorts.
After all, Cambodia granted 45,000 hectares of its prime real estate in Koh Kong province – and 20 per cent of its coastline – to private Chinese company Union Development Group, just so it could build this supposed tourism Mecca, and all for a peppercorn rent that will start at just US$1 million per year.
At least, that’s the official version. But sceptics who say the terms of this deal are too good to be true think there’s another reason for China’s interest: they believe the development is as much about welcoming the Chinese military as it is about Chinese tourists.
Such scepticism has grown louder recently, with the release of satellite images from the European Space Agency showing that the runway for the site’s airport is far longer than is required for civilian aircraft.
‘They only go to Chinese shops’: why Cambodia’s influx of mainland tourists is causing tensions
Cambodian officials have already been at pains to deny that the project’s deep water port could serve Chinese military interests, so questions over the runway have only fuelled claims that the development serves a dual purpose.
“The runway is about 3,400 meters long, which is larger than the international airport in Phnom Penh and could accommodate any plane in the Chinese air force,” said Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS WEEK IN ASIA
Get updates direct to your inbox
your email
SUBMIT
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy
“It is also in a rather secluded location for such a large airport if it were for civilian purposes. The only thing nearby would be the Koh Kong casino/resort project, which as I understand it hasn’t seen much success so far,” Poling said. Reports says construction work at the Koh Kong project has been stalled for months.
As to whether the project is intended for military use, Poling said there was “a lot of smoke but no fire”, but he added: “if there is any country in Southeast Asia where the Chinese might be able to gain a rotational military presence, it would be Cambodia”.
Sceptical: US Vice-President Mike Pence is concerned the Koh Kong project has a military use. Photo: AFP
Sceptical: US Vice-President Mike Pence is concerned the Koh Kong project has a military use. Photo: AFP
Share:
The satellite images suggest there was a flurry of construction on the runway after US Vice-President Mike Pence delivered a letter to Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen in November, expressing concern that the project had a military use.
Most of the runway was completed in just two months and it is significantly larger than the Federal Aviation Administration’s recommendation of 2,800 metres for a Boeing 787-900.
Union Development Group may be a private Chinese company, but the development has long been suspected of having government connections.

Zhang Gaoli, the former vice-premier of China and chairman of the leading group for Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, backed the project from the beginning, presiding over the signing of the agreement between UDG and Cambodia. The project has also received multiple visits from other Chinese Communist Party figures, including Wang Qinmin, vice-chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.
Japan plays China’s game in Cambodia. Hun Sen wins
And as a private venture, many question the viability of its bottom line. As another Western military expert put it: “The scale of the development by China’s Union Development Group appears inconsistent with the commercial potential of the area, raising questions about its financial viability and sustainability, possible dual-use and military applications, as well as the ultimate intent of involved stakeholders.”
SOUND FAMILIAR?
Cambodian Defence Ministry spokesman Chum Socheat could not be reached despite repeated attempts, while government spokesman Phay Siphan said he had “no idea” whether the Cambodian government had any oversight of the project.
However, Paul Chambers, a regional analyst at Naresuan University, previously told This Week in Asia that senior Cambodian officials privately admitted that Hun Sen was considering approving a Chinese naval base there.
Chambers likened the Koh Kong project to Chinese projects in Laos and Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka handed over control of its Hambantota Port to China on a 99-year lease after it became unable to meet its debt obligations to Beijing, which had financed its construction.
Controversial: the Chinese controlled port in Hambantota, Sri Lanka. Photo: AFP
Controversial: the Chinese controlled port in Hambantota, Sri Lanka. Photo: AFP
Share:
“In Sri Lanka’s case, over-dependency on China forced Sri Lanka to simply give that facility to the Chinese. The same could easily happen here in Cambodia,” he said.
In 2016, China provided 36 per cent of Cambodia’s total economic aid and 30 per cent of its investment capital. Just this year, China pledged an additional US$558 million in aid and promised to import 400,000 tonnes of rice. With the EU and US contemplating economic sanctions against Phnom Penh over human rights abuses, Cambodia’s dependence on China may become even more pronounced.
The land for the UDG project is slated to be returned to Cambodia when the lease expires in 2108, but some experts predict China will seek to leverage the situation into permanent ownership.
Yun Sun, director of the China Programme at the Stimson Centre, agreed the UDG port had “the capacity for military use”, saying there was “pattern of dual use port development [by China] in Djibouti, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Burma”.
As anti-US feeling grows in Cambodia, China cashes in
“China has intentionally [pursued] this type of port to avoid controversies,” she said.
However, controversy for China may be inevitable.
The Koh Kong project is located in a strategic area and could have implications for various sensitive issues, among them the South China Sea territorial disputes, China’s energy imports via the Malacca Strait, and even Taiwan’s sovereignty.
The port is directly across from a proposed canal in Thailand that would allow China to bypass the Malacca Strait, a narrow channel used to import the vast majority of China’s energy.
The base could also give China an advantage in the South China Sea where the regional superpower is embroiled in multiple territorial disputes with Southeast Asian nations.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang hosts Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: AFP
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang hosts Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: AFP
Share:
Chambers at Naresuan University said increased military ties, including port calls by Chinese warships and Cambodian-Chinese military exercises, indicated that China had military intentions in Cambodia.
While Hun Sen has previously said a military base would be against Cambodia’s constitution, Chambers said the law often seemed not to apply to China.
Indeed, the land concession itself is legally dubious. It is at least three times bigger than the maximum size allowed for a land concession and is located inside a national park. As Sun at the Stimson Centre put it: “Hun Sen will have to square the circle on the constitutional violation.”
The prime minister may have already alluded to a loophole, one that China previously exploited in Djibouti. While denying the existence of a Chinese military base in Koh Kong, Hun Sen added that no foreign troops would be stationed in Cambodia unless they were part of a United Nations mission. China’s base in Djibouti is meant to support a UN initiative to combat piracy, but the UN has no authority over the base, and China is free to use it for any other purpose it may need.
‘No foreign troops on Cambodian soil’: Prime Minister Hun Sen
Chambers warned that growing Chinese investment and aid was causing Hun Sen to “tilt entirely into China’s orbit”.
“What makes the US and others nervous is that Cambodia’s government appears to be intentionally and even naively digging itself into greater and greater dependency on China, with the result that Cambodia could become the centre of Chinese military and economic interests in Southeast Asia,” he said.
Given this pattern, a military base would be the clear next step, said Chambers, who warned that such a move would “raise the stakes” in the geopolitical struggle between China and the US.
Chambers said most Cambodian officials were happy to go along with Hun Sen’s capitulation to China as long as they could personally profit from it; those against it were powerless to stop it. ■
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Chinese tourism project linked to use by military

Cambodia
South China Sea
Belt and Road Initiative
Infrastructure in Asia
COMMENTS
Politics
Hong Kong protesters’ five demands meant to ‘humiliate’ government, won’t solve city’s issues: Singapore PM
Speaking at Forbes Global CEO Conference, Lee Hsien Loong says he finds it hard to imagine that ‘one country, two systems’ will last until 2047
Singapore unlikely to benefit from unrest in Hong Kong, Lee adds as he addresses US-China trade war and country’s coming elections
Dewey Sim
Dewey Sim

Published: 7:30am, 17 Oct, 2019


Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at a Q&A panel during a Bloomberg New Economy Forum dinner event in November 2018. Photo: BloombergSingapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at a Q&A panel during a Bloomberg New Economy Forum dinner event in November 2018. Photo: Bloomberg
Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at a Q&A panel during a Bloomberg New Economy Forum dinner event in November 2018. Photo: Bloomberg
The five main demands of Hong Kong’s anti-government protesters are intended to “humiliate” the city’s administration, and acceding to them is unlikely to solve the deep-seated issues linked to “one country, two systems”, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Wednesday.
The Lion City’s leader said if Hong Kong did not work within its mini-constitution, the Basic Law, it would be “very difficult to imagine” that the unique governance model in place since the city’s return to Chinese rule in 1997 could last until 2047, when the system is meant to expire.
He said the model “can be made to work [but] it is not easy.”
Speaking during a dialogue at the Forbes Global CEO Conference, Lee also stressed that Singapore was unlikely to benefit from Hong Kong’s woes because it depended heavily on investors having confidence in the entire region.
The comments were the Singaporean leader’s most extensive yet on the protests that have engulfed Hong Kong for 19 straight weeks.

“I don’t see any easy way forward because the demonstrators, they say they have five major demands, and not one can be compromised,” the 67-year-old leader said in response to questions about Hong Kong from Steve Forbes, the chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes Media.
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS WEEK IN ASIA
Get updates direct to your inbox
your email
SUBMIT
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy
The protesters are seeking an inquiry into alleged police brutality during the protests; withdrawal of a controversial extradition bill; full amnesty for all those arrested during the protests; the retraction of the classification of protesters as “rioters”; and the implementation of full universal suffrage in the semi-autonomous Chinese city.
“But those are not demands which are meant to be a programme to solve Hong Kong’s problems,” Lee said. “Those are demands which are intended to humiliate and bring down the government.”

Lee said it was likely that some protesters did not know what their end game was, but were nonetheless demonstrating to express their unhappiness.
He said: “And that is a most unfortunate state to be in. You have got to be able to move beyond that, and to take steps which will not overcome all of the problems at once, but [will] progressively tackle the issues that are bugging Hongkongers.”
During the hour-long dialogue, Lee spent a considerable amount of time addressing the Hong Kong protests, and also touched on a range of other issues including the trade war and geopolitical stand-off between the United States and China, as well as Singapore’s impending general election.
Lee described Wednesday’s events in Hong Kong – which saw Lam heckled by pro-democracy lawmakers in the Legislative Council, forcing her to deliver her address via video link – as “very sad for Hong Kong”.

There was no upside for Singapore from the protests, the prime minister added, because the trade-reliant island nation thrived only when other countries were prospering and doing business with it.
“It’s just the confidence in the region, so that investors can come and not think that [they are] in a dangerous part of the world,” Lee said.
He said the “one country, two systems” model was a key cause of unhappiness for Hong Kong and the government in Beijing.
Singapore PM a social media hero in China for Hong Kong comments
The system requires China to think not only of “one country” but also pay heed to the “two systems”, Lee said, and in Hong Kong’s case, the city’s residents need to think of themselves as part of one country.
Both sides needed to exercise “wisdom and restraint”, Lee said, adding that Hong Kong also had “issues of governance”.
The question of universal suffrage – giving the people of Hong Kong free choice to pick their chief executive – was “something which needs to be dealt with”.

Lee added, however, that there was no simple solution, as Hong Kong exists as a special administrative region (SAR) – not a country – and that it has to “live and work within” that framework.
If the city’s Basic Law was not made to work, Lee said it would be “very difficult to imagine that one country, two systems can continue for another [28 years] until 2047“.
The city’s deep rooted social issues such as its infamous housing crunch required political courage from its leaders, Lee said.
“So far, the SAR government has gone for conservative approaches and problems have not really significantly improved.”
Hong Kong’s anarchy cries out for a forceful response
Even though solutions could be advanced, this would take time, and it was necessary for “temperatures to come down”, the prime minister said.
During the dialogue, Lee also spoke about the Singapore economy, which has been reeling as a result of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
He said: “Our growth rate has come down. This year, we will be well under 1 per cent. If we are lucky, we should be above zero.”
Heng Swee Keat speaks at a UBS client conference in Singapore in January. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has named the deputy prime minister as his successor. Photo: Reuters
Heng Swee Keat speaks at a UBS client conference in Singapore in January. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has named the deputy prime minister as his successor. Photo: Reuters
Share:
Flash data for the third quarter released this week showed the city state’s economy – a regional bellwether – grew 0.6 per cent compared to the last three months, beating earlier expectations of a contraction.
A former finance minister, Lee also addressed the strain in US-China ties that stretches beyond trade issues.
The trade war has “hardened” attitudes among Americans and the Chinese, Lee said, adding that it was not just US President Donald Trump or his Republican allies who had hawkish views about China, but a “whole layer of [the] establishment” that now feels that Beijing has done “bad things” such as cyber theft and unfair trade.
US and China set on ‘decoupling’ amid clash of civilisations, forum told
China, too, had hardened itself in response to this stance from Washington, Lee said.
“Since the last few decades, you will find it very difficult to find somebody in America who speaks up and says we should not demonise China.”
He said things could change if everyone concerned kept an “open mind”.
People taking selfies with the Singapore skyline as backdrop. Photo: AP
People taking selfies with the Singapore skyline as backdrop. Photo: AP
Share:
Lee, who became prime minister in 2004, also addressed a question on his succession plan. He has said he will step down and hand over the leadership role to his named successor, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, some time after the next general elections, which he must call by April 2021.
Speculation is mounting that Lee will call a snap vote in months.
Still tight-lipped on when he will call the vote, Lee said it was important to have “an orderly political succession”.
He quipped that the election could be called any time in the next 18 months – around the same time period before his government term ends.
Singapore’s PM-designate and 4G leaders visit China for high-level talks
“Time waits for no man … Every year, you are one year older. And as one year more, one year less in which you have time to prepare somebody to take over from you,” Lee said.
“After the next general election, I hope, within a not too long time, I’ll be able to hand over.”
The premier also addressed domestic policies that he has sought to influence in his 15 years as premier – the country’s stance on immigration, and its lagging birth rate.
“It is a big challenge for any country, especially so for one with a small population,” he said.
He said the government was continuing to encourage couples to get married and become parents while also keeping open its doors to migrants at levels that will “not be too enormous and not overpower us”.

Hong Kong protests
Singapore
Trade
Universal suffrage in Hong Kong
US-China trade war
US-China trade war: All stories
US-China relations
Hong Kong Basic Law
COMMENTS
Read more

Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong a social media hero in China for Hong Kong protest comments
Singapore PM a social media hero in China for Hong Kong comments

Read more

US and China set on ‘decoupling’ amid their clash of civilisations, Singapore Forbes forum told
US and China set on ‘decoupling’ amid clash of civilisations, forum told

Read more

Singapore avoids recession: what does it mean for Lee Hsien Loong’s election timetable?
Singapore avoids recession: what does it mean for PM’s election plans?

Read more

Four months of Hong Kong protests: how peaceful mass marches escalated to intense violence, a bitterly divided society and a loss of innocence
Four months of Hong Kong protests: an innocence lost

Read more

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam attempts to solve housing crisis in her policy address, but people from low-income group feel they were left high and dry
Hong Kong leader addresses housing crisis, but low-income people unsatisfied

Politics
Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong a social media hero in China for Hong Kong protest comments
Leader of the Lion City has criticised the Hong Kong protesters, saying they are trying to ‘humiliate’ the government rather than solve problems
He also admitted his own country was not immune to the forces of ‘deep social angst’ sweeping various places across the globe
Dewey Sim
Dewey Sim

Published: 7:00am, 18 Oct, 2019


The Singapore leader Lee Hsien Loong has been critical of Hong Kong’s protesters, saying they want to ‘humiliate’ the government rather than solve problems. Photo: Sam TsangThe Singapore leader Lee Hsien Loong has been critical of Hong Kong’s protesters, saying they want to ‘humiliate’ the government rather than solve problems. Photo: Sam Tsang
The Singapore leader Lee Hsien Loong has been critical of Hong Kong’s protesters, saying they want to ‘humiliate’ the government rather than solve problems. Photo: Sam Tsang
A video of Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong saying his country would be “finished” if it were hit by Hong Kong-style protests has gone viral in mainland China, prompting social media users to praise the Lion City’s strong governance.
Lee told a union event on Tuesday that populist movements were growing in various places across the world – from the United States and France to Hong Kong, where anti-government protests have entered their 19th week – and he refused to dismiss the possibility of similar divisions appearing in his own country.
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has been outspoken on the Hong Kong protests. Photo: AP
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has been outspoken on the Hong Kong protests. Photo: AP
Share:
While Singapore’s situation was different to Hong Kong’s, “deep social angst” could take root in the Lion City, too, if it was not careful, Lee said.
“If it happens to us, like what’s happening elsewhere, we will suffer the same consequences as the other [places], only worse because we are that much more vulnerable,” Lee told the NTUC National Delegates’ Conference.

“It would become impossible to govern Singapore, to make and carry out difficult decisions, or to plan for the long-term good of the nation … Confidence in Singapore would be destroyed. I think Singapore would be finished.”
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS WEEK IN ASIA
Get updates direct to your inbox
your email
SUBMIT
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy
Lee’s remarks were quickly picked up by mainland Chinese media. The state-owned Global Times newspaper, which is published under the auspices of People’s Daily, posted a snippet of Lee’s speech on Twitter.
Hong Kong protesters seeking to ‘humiliate’ government: Singapore PM
Multiple posts about the speech also surfaced on the popular Chinese microblogging site, Weibo.
One of them, published by Chinese news platform Guancha Syndicate, had received more than 4,400 likes and 600 comments as of Thursday afternoon.
Lee’s comments earned him plenty of fans on Weibo.
Lee’s comments earned him plenty of fans on Weibo.
Share:
Some Chinese commentators said Lee was worried that Singaporeans would follow in the footsteps of Hongkongers; others lauded the Lion City’s hard-line approach to governance.
One user said: “Singapore’s legal system is very good, and the government is efficient. It would be great if China could become like Singapore.”
Another, with the username Zhang Yiwu, said that the People’s Action Party, which is led by Lee, had a “strong ability to control and rule”.
Zhang Yiwu's comment on Weibo.
Zhang Yiwu's comment on Weibo.
Share:
He wrote: “The top-down action is not weak, so the situation is very different.”
Lee followed up his comments on Wednesday at the Forbes Global CEO Conference, where he provided his most extensive remarks on Hong Kong since the protests started in June.
In a dialogue that would later be picked up by Chinese media, Lee said the five main demands of Hong Kong’s anti-government protesters were intended to “humiliate” the city’s administration.
Acceding to them was unlikely to solve the deep-seated issues linked to “one country, two systems”, he said.

“I don’t see any easy way forward because the demonstrators, they say they have five major demands, and not one can be compromised,” said Lee, 67.
The five demands of the protesters are: an inquiry into alleged police brutality; withdrawal of a controversial extradition bill; full amnesty for all those arrested during the protests; the retraction of the classification of protesters as “rioters”; and full universal suffrage in the semi-autonomous Chinese city.
“But those are not demands which are meant to be a programme to solve Hong Kong’s problems,” Lee said. “Those are demands which are intended to humiliate and bring down the government.”
The Singapore leader Lee Hsien Loong has been critical of Hong Kong’s protesters, saying they want to ‘humiliate’ the government rather than solve problems. Photo: Sam Tsang
The Singapore leader Lee Hsien Loong has been critical of Hong Kong’s protesters, saying they want to ‘humiliate’ the government rather than solve problems. Photo: Sam Tsang
Share:
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor formally withdrew the extradition bill in early September, but that has not satisfied protesters, who insist that all five demands be met.
Lee also said tackling the city’s deep-rooted social issues such as its infamous housing crunch required political courage from its leaders.
He said: “So far, the SAR government has gone for conservative approaches and problems have not really significantly improved.”
Eugene Tan, a law professor at Singapore Management University, said the mainland Chinese reaction was not surprising as Lee’s perspective was seen as “external validation” that the protesters in Hong Kong had gone too far.
Singapore back in play as more Hongkongers consider migrating due to crisis
“From the average person’s perspective in China, Lee’s remarks are germane, as they see Singapore as a city state with an ethnic Chinese majority and a strong economy, not very different from Hong Kong,” said Tan.
He said the remarks resonated with those who felt violence would not help to overcome the serious economic and social issues in Hong Kong.
Lee’s focus on positive outcomes would also appeal to Chinese who had a renewed sense of optimism after celebrating 70 years of communist rule on the recent National Day, Tan said.
However, he added: “To be sure, Lee’s remarks will not find a similar reception in Hong Kong.”

Hong Kong protests
Singapore
Social media
COMMENTS
Read more

Hong Kong protesters’ five demands meant to ‘humiliate’ government, won’t solve city’s issues: Singapore PM
Hong Kong protesters seeking to ‘humiliate’ government: Singapore PM

Read more

US and China set on ‘decoupling’ amid their clash of civilisations, Singapore Forbes forum told
US and China set on ‘decoupling’ amid clash of civilisations, forum told

Geopolitics
Chinese cash: enough to keep East Timor out of Asean?
Southeast Asia’s youngest nation faces a Catch-22 in ties with China
To join Asean, it needs to improve its economy, but, in improving its economy with China’s help, it may jeopardise its chances of joining Asean
Meaghan Tobin
Meaghan Tobin

Published: 8:30am, 3 Aug, 2019


Boys play near a harbour in Dili, East Timor, as a container ship sails into port. File photoBoys play near a harbour in Dili, East Timor, as a container ship sails into port. File photo
Boys play near a harbour in Dili, East Timor, as a container ship sails into port. File photo
When work began on East Timor’s US$490 million deep water port, things went with a bang – literally.
The government waived its regulations on explosions so that Chinese contractors could blast their way through a quarry in Tibar Bay, 10km west of the capital city of Dili, and launch in earnest a project aimed at strengthening trade links between Southeast Asia’s youngest nation and the wider region.
To some ears, those explosions in mid-July were a sign of strength, a celebration of the fact that Asia’s largest economy was helping to develop one of its smallest and most impoverished neighbours. To other ears, they were a loud reminder of a young country’s vulnerability.
The Tibar Bay port, which has been designed to handle 750,000 containers annually, is among 20 projects being built by Chinese state-owned firms in the country. East Timor has turned to China for help in developing its economy and infrastructure – two weak points that have in the past held it back from joining the region’s premier multilateral forum, Asean (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations).
An East Timorese vendor on a sidewalk in Dili. Photo: EPA
An East Timorese vendor on a sidewalk in Dili. Photo: EPA
Share:
The country has been hoping to join the bloc since gaining independence from Indonesia in 2002, making an official application for membership in 2011, and is today the only Southeast Asian nation that is not a member. Joining would not only boost its opportunities for trade, but also symbolise the 17-year-old nation’s coming of age – from occupied state to regional player.

East Timor wants to tap oil near Australia, so why is it courting China?
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS WEEK IN ASIA
Get updates direct to your inbox
your email
SUBMIT
By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy
Yet observers warn that in pivoting to China, East Timor may have given the bloc one more reason to exclude it. Previously, doubters in Asean – most vocally, Singapore – have suggested the country’s struggles with its economy and infrastructure would leave it at best unable to contribute, and, at worst, a drain on resources. Now they fear its would-be 11th member could act as a Trojan horse for Chinese influence.
All that leaves East Timor with a Catch-22-style riddle: to join Asean it needs to improve its economy, but, in improving its economy, it could jeopardise its chances of joining Asean.
A TROJAN HORSE?
China’s ambassador to East Timor Xiao Jianguo, who attended the quarry-blasting ceremony, did little to assuage those fears a week later, when he said Beijing “as a good neighbour, good friend and good partner” supported East Timor’s bid to become Asean’s 11th member.
Beijing was willing to assist East Timor “in terms of human resources training and facilities development” to address Asean members’ concerns about East Timor’s suitability for membership, said the ambassador.
He added that the country’s “accession to Asean” would “help build a higher level of China-Asean strategic partnership”.
East Timor’s Government Palace building in the capital Dili. Photo: AFP
East Timor’s Government Palace building in the capital Dili. Photo: AFP
Share:
Analysts say such comments will have raised alarm bells in some Asean member states, who fear that admitting a nation beholden to China for economic support will jeopardise its consensus-driven model.
Maria Ortuoste, a former analyst for the Philippines foreign service, said the bloc was still wary of the divisions caused by China’s activities in the South China Sea, citing Asean summits where communiques had been delayed because Cambodia and Laos – seemingly under the influence of China – had failed to toe the group’s line on the issue.
“China has not been shy about flexing its muscles,” said Ortuoste, now associate professor of political science at California State University East Bay.
HELP NEEDED
That East Timor’s economy is in need of the help is in little doubt. Until 2015, oil and gas revenues had driven the economy, but the state now depends on returns from its sovereign wealth fund investments to stay afloat. According to the local NGO La’o Hamutuk, which monitors the nation’s economic development, the fund has stagnated at US$16 billion for the past four years. To grow the fund, the country could tap its remaining gas field, known as Greater Sunrise, but to do so it would have to cover capital costs that La’o Hamutuk estimates would drain the remainder of the fund.
East Timor activists ‘shocked’ by Australia’s prosecution of Dili spying whistle-blowers
On top of that, its population is one of the youngest in the world – the median age of its 1.3 million people is 19 and some estimates put youth unemployment as high as 40 per cent.
Given such problems, there are many voices even within Asean that see it as only reasonable that it should seek Chinese investment. Indeed, some argue that such investment is exactly what is needed to bring its economy in line with the rest of the bloc.