Ukrainian Military Update 5/3/24-5/6/24

5/3/24-5/6/24 Update, day 800-803 of Russian invasion.


Belarus/Western Border:

UA increased the draw of emergency electricity from the EU, for about 0.25% of the total daily electricity need.

The SBU reported that RU FSB officers were involved in manufacturing a refugee crisis with UA citizens on the Latvian/Russian border, essentially forcing them from south ukraine and compelling them to cross the border en masse under threat of violence. The goal is to stoke anti-immigrant sentiment.

The UK Foreign minister visited Lviv after concluding a visit to Kyiv, where he discussed the use of frozen RU assets. David Cameron additionally stated that UA would receive $3.74 billion USD in aid annually, and could use UK weaponry on RU soil.

Slovakian PM Robert Fico ruled out ever sending troops to UA, following up to recent French statements.

The Polish Foreign Ministry stated that they would not "reveal their cards" with regards to sending troops to UA, in the event of further RU aggression.


Kyiv/Central Ukraine:

UA intercepted 13/13 shaheds and 0/4 S-300 missiles on Friday night May 4, all launched from the Belgorod region towards Kharkiv and Dnipro.

UA intercepted 23/24 Shahed drones on Saturday night May 5, launched primarily from Belgorod and Crimea.

Current assessed damage to UA energy infrastructure this year stands at over $1 billion USD. The UK will reportedly assist with rebuilding Kyiv's energy infrastructure.

According to Oleksandr Kamyshin the UA Minister of Strategic industries, UA can produce an additional $10 billion USD worth of weaponry if funding is supplied, for this year.

The SBU reportedly detained RU agents who were preparing large airstrikes in Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Vinnytsia.

A man from Kyiv who was extorting families of MIA soldiers for up to $10,000 USD for information on their loved ones was arrested.

Per UA Intel services, RU will use a "three layer plan"  to destabilize UA in the coming month, focusing on new US aid shipment interiction, disinformation undermining mobilization and the Zelensky, and international isolation.

Railway employees were exempted from mobilization for another month.

Remnants of a new Kh-69 missiles were discovered in the forest belt around Kyiv and disarmed.


Northeast Ukraine/Kharkiv city:

Despite RU massing of forces in the NE border, approximately 50,000 forces in the Belgorod and Kursk regions, it seems unlikely that any success would be realized from pushing towards Kharkiv.

Reportedly the largest activity of RU SOF and recon troops is occuring around the Sumy border region.

RU launched FPV drones into Chernihiv, which were intercepted by EW. RU struck power infrastructure in Sumy oblast, leading to blackouts in Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.

Kharkiv continues to have rotating power cuts for some 108,000 customers. Power generation is being supplemented by solar and wind farms, aided by windy and cloudless weather.

RU struck a senior university Rector's house in NE Kharkiv. The airstrikes overnight also injured 18 people on Easter, wounding an 18 year old girl grievously.


Kupyansk/Lyman:

RU has reportedly strengthened the lines around Kupyansk with penal units.

UA repelled some 14 attacks over the past day in this direction. The overall # of troops has not materially changed in this direction, as troops are redeployed elsewhere.

RU has pushed further W of Kotlyarivka towards the highway SE of kupyansk, aided by TOS shelling and airstrikes.

RU launched 6 attacks out of Kreminna and towards the forests. UA launched a counterassault SE of Yampolivka, capturing territory and some POW's.


Kramatorsk/Bakhmut:

RU launched some 36 assaults W of Bakhmut.

UA is focused on impeding RU assaults into E Chasiv Yar, where RU is trying to make progress in the forest belts to the NE and SE. Currently UA is taking the advantage in elevation to strike at the RU troops and prevent them from taking large buildings in the Kanal district.

RU continues to heavily shell the E edge of Chasiv yar with all kinds of missiles and rockets.

RU struck the Slovyansk coal power plant with 5 missiles, one of the main power plants in E UA. Due to its proximity to the front, UA is unable to depend on the site for power.

Over the last day, RU shelled Donetsk some 1887 times.


Avdiivka/Pokrovsk:

RU continues to heavily focus on this area, launching some 31 assaults to the W of Avdiivka.

RU forces appear to have pushed further W of Orlivka in the SW, and W of Soloviove in the NW.

RU troops additionally surged NE of Ocheretyne into Arkhanhelske, apparently taking the settlement along the river.

UA shot down an SU-35 over SE Donetsk.

RU is reportedly transporting metal from Avdiivka coke plants to Mariupol por ts to sell.


Donetsk city/Occupied regions:

RU launched 27 assaults to the NW and SW of Marinka.

RU forces continue efforts to push into S Krasnohorivka, securing more territory around the industrial area in the city S.

RU will reportedly make viewing Putin's May 7 inauguration mandatory in the occupied territories, and are emplacing large broadcast setups.



Zaporizhia/Southern Axis:

RU launched 6 assaults towards Staromaiorske and Robotyne. RU launched 402 attacks on 11 settlements, 179x with drones and 213x with artillery.

RU has contested additional territory to the SE of Robotyne.

RU forces have advanced slightly towards Staromaiorske from the south.

UA GUR forces eliminated a POW camp leader/alleged interrogator in occupied Berdyansk via a car bomb.


Kherson:

RU launched 3 assaults on the UA bridgehead at Krynky.

UA appears to have extended the contested zone to the SW of Krynky, as UA marines contest the westernmost delta of the Dnipro river.

UA struck an MLRS on the kinburn peninsula.

RU attacked a tractor trailer in Beryslav that was delivering water to local villages, setting it on fire.



Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea:

The UA attack on Kushchevsk reportedly resulted in the redeployment of 40 aircraft withdrawn. There are allegations an ATACMS strike took out some S-300/400 batteries.

UA Naval drones destroyed an RU patrol boat in Crimea overnight.

RU is reportedly more heavily using ballistics in S Ukraine, relying on decreased reaction time for UA air defense, especially around Odesa.


Russia:

Per UA, the maximalist objectives for RU this year is the complete seizure of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhia regions.

GUR carried out a large scale DDOS attack on internet providers in RU Tatarstan.

RU published arrest warrants for Zelensky and the UA Commander of Ground Forces, but did not specify reasons.

RU jamming around Finland is potentially due to heavy anti-drone operations, as the interference increased dramatically when UA drone strikes on RU energy infrastructure began.

RU is due to train on a simulated tactical nuclear strike in the Southern Military District, which includes the occupied territories in UA.


General:

Over the last day UA forces conducted 12 airstrikes and RU forces conducted 71 air strikes (including drones), and 52 MLRS strikes.

Yesterday Ukrainian forces eliminated:

1040 x soldiers (Total 475,300 day avg 1119]
34x APC
5x Tank
1x Air defense
38x Artillery (0xMLRS)
59x vehicles
47x UAV

estimated cost: $81.4 million USD

total estimated cost- $87.7 Million/day per last 30 days, $2.6 Billion USD over last 30 days.


Overseas:


Latvia is proposing to expand EU sanctions, including banning Manganese and AlO3 ore exports to RU, which is used in RU military production and has spiked in demand from RU.

Estonian MP Kristo Anna Vaga cycled some 1700km from Tallinn to Kyiv, raising 30k euros to buy cars and drones.

Germany and the Czech republic blamed GRU for cyberattacks on their institutions.

German politicians in Hessen state are reportedly due to discuss returning UA men who don't have renewed passport status, following UA suspension of consular services currently.

Estonia and Luxembourg provided some 900,000 euros worth of electronic and communication equipment under the IT coalition framework.

UA received patriot missiles from Spain.

Since the beginning of the war, Germany provided UA with some 32 billion euros of aid.

Italy plans to announce new military aid to UA, including a SAMP/T air defense system and potentially storm shadow missiles.

The US is negotiating with G7 to sign a $50 billion USD aid package from frozen assets for UA, due to be discussed at the G7 summit in italy in June.

USAID allocated $250 million USD to support UA agriculture.