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Red Celadon Center Skip 2018

k3v227
Apr 10th, 2018
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  1. ~58% to die, 18s saved if you include heal pad skip.
  2.  
  3. Exarion route: https://pastebin.com/tACDetKF
  4. Exarion Heal Pad skip analysis: https://pastebin.com/CYWdrnQ6
  5.  
  6. "Some outcomes that cause heal pad skip to fail, such as confusion on the Gastlies, often kill runs through sheer time loss. If your run can't afford these time losses and you're already planning to YOLO Lorelei and Agatha, heal pad skip is probably a good play at 8-17 HP. Seems like a very comparable to risk to YOLO Drill on Lance" - Exarion
  7.  
  8. **Bonus**: This strat mitigates the Gyarados risk on standard Silph bar.
  9.  
  10. Late EQ + Silph Bar Risks:
  11. (- Gyarados: (13%))
  12. - Cubone (21%)
  13. - Juggler 2 (23%)
  14. Total: 1 - [0.79 * 0.77] = ~39% chance of dying.
  15.  
  16. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  17.  
  18. ROUTE 10
  19. - DON'T get Max Ether.
  20.  
  21. UNDERGROUND
  22. - Get Elixir.
  23.  
  24. CELADON MART
  25. - Horn Drill, 10 Super Repels, 3 Super Potions.
  26. - Poke Doll.
  27. - Soda Pop -> Rock Slide -> Fresh Water.
  28. - 10 X Accuracy, 4 X Special, 6 X Speed.
  29. > Sold bide = 11 X Accuracy, 4 X Special, 7 X Speed.
  30.  
  31. FLY MENU:
  32. - Swap slot 2 with Super Repels, teach Rock Slide over Mega Punch.
  33. - Use Super Repel, swap Slot 3 with X Acc, teach Fly.
  34. - Fly to Lavender.
  35. - Move order: Rock Slide, Thrash, Thunderbolt, Bubblebeam.
  36.  
  37. LAVENDER
  38. - Rival: TB, TB, BB, Thrash, Thrash x2.
  39. - Gastlies: RS.
  40. - Get both Elixirs.
  41. - Heal Pad Skip (http://pastebin.com/CYWdrnQ6)
  42. > Haunter: RS (+ BB).
  43. > Rock Slide (32/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 84.9960%).
  44. - Get Rare Candy.
  45. - Poke Doll menu: Swap slot 4 with Elixir, use Poke Doll.
  46. - Rocket 1: TB x3.
  47. > Golbat: TB OHKO.
  48. - Rocket 2: TB + Thrash (or Thrash x3-4)
  49. > Drowzee: (23/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 65.7051%)
  50. - Rocket 3: TB x2, Thrash.
  51. > Raticate: (36/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 93.5697%)
  52. - "Continue only with 12+ HP; revert to normal strats otherwise" (TBD if this HP threshold is still correct).
  53. - Fly to Celadon -> DON'T CENTER.
  54.  
  55. *********************
  56.  
  57. STALL ON PIDGEOT (if needed):
  58. - If extra X Specials (2-3 total) then stall with 1-2 X Spec on Pidgeot for damage.
  59. - Can stall on Growlithe:
  60. > TB +0: (Overall 2-hit Kill%: 95.6814%) or BB x2.
  61. > TB +1: 2HKO
  62. > TB +2: (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 73.5978%)
  63. - 1 X Spec: Drill Pidgeot, Drill Gyarados, BB Growlithe (0 drill remain).
  64. - 2 X Spec: TB Pidgeot, TB Gyarados, BB Growlithe (2 drills remain).
  65. - If 2 Drills after rival:
  66. > Can Elixir after Rocket OR on Nidorino. Or combine with a potion menu?
  67. > Can X Acc + Drill x3 Koga if 11 X Acc.
  68.  
  69. *********************
  70.  
  71. SILPH CO.
  72. - Teach Horn Drill over Thrash, Bike.
  73. - Take stairs to 5F -> Get Elixer.
  74. - Arbok: X Acc, Drill (X Speed if para).
  75. - Silph Rival: X Acc + X Spd + Drill, Drill, RS, Drill x2.
  76. - Elixir #1.
  77. - Rocket: X Acc, BB, Drill x2.
  78. - Giovanni: X Acc, Drill x2, BB, Drill
  79. - Take Lift to 10F, Get EQ + Rare Candy, Dig.
  80. - Fly to Celadon -> DON'T CENTER.
  81.  
  82. CYCLING ROAD
  83. - Snorlax menu: Super Repel, swap slot 6 with X Speed, use Poke Flute.
  84. - Get Candy + PP Up.
  85.  
  86. SAFARI ZONE
  87. - Enter Fuchsia: Super Repel, swap slot 5 with EQ, use PP Up on Horn Drill, Teach EQ over Rock Slide.
  88.  
  89. FUCHSIA GYM
  90. - Juggler 1: EQ x4
  91. - Juggler 2: EQ x2 + TB.
  92. - Koga: EQ x3, use Elixir #2 -> stall with X Acc if bought 11 -> stall with Bubblebeam.
  93. - Swap slot 6 with X Special, Candy x3 to L43, Bike to strength.
  94. - Get Strength -> Fly to Pallet
  95.  
  96. **proceed as normal**
  97.  
  98. Giovanni Rhydon: (18/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 54.9880%)
  99. Viridian Rival Pidgeot: (23/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 65.7051%)
  100.  
  101. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  102.  
  103. TIME ANALYSIS
  104.  
  105. RED (Pokemon: 4)
  106. - https://youtu.be/z3ch8BIKIzE?t=3957
  107. - Celadon Center: 1:05:32.8 - 1:05:48.4 = 15.6s
  108. - Fly: 1:05:23.9 - 1:05:32.8 = 8.9s
  109.  
  110. MOVE SELECTION
  111. - https://youtu.be/jl-SwXFdhjo?t=3710
  112. - TB = 1:03:25.8 - 1:03:26.2
  113. - Drill = 1:02:56.3 - 1:02:56.5
  114. - Thrash = 1:03:34.1 - 1:03:34.3
  115.  
  116. RED BAR TIME SAVES
  117. - Heal Pad Skip with full Red Bar (5.7s)
  118. - Arbok (1.8s)
  119. - Pidgeot (1.8s)
  120. - Gyarados (0.8s)
  121.  
  122. PROS Average Best
  123. - Skip Celadon Center -15.6 -15.6
  124. - Skip extra menu (drill teach) -1.0 -1.0
  125. - Less OHKO Text (Rocket 2) -1.2 -1.4
  126. - Save turn on Koffing (TB crit) -1.0 -6.0
  127. - Thrashing about (Drowzee) -0.8 -0.0
  128. - Heal Pad Skip -4.7 -5.7
  129. - Extra Red Bar -3.4 -4.4
  130. - No X Spec on silph rival -6.0 -6.0
  131. - No Hydro Pump -7.5 -7.5
  132. TOTAL -41.2 -47.6
  133.  
  134. CONS Average Best
  135. - 2 Extra Flies +17.8 +17.8
  136. - Select TB +0.2 +0.2
  137. - Thrash windup (Koffing) +1.1 +1.1
  138. - Lose a turn on Drowzee +3.9 +0.0
  139. TOTAL +23.1 +19.1
  140.  
  141. NET -18.1s -28.5s
  142.  
  143. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  144.  
  145. RISK CALCULATION
  146.  
  147. Added risks in a vacuum:
  148. - Haunter (15%)
  149. - Gastly (6%)
  150. - Gastly (6%)
  151. - Rocket 2 (8.6%)
  152. - Rocket 3 (5%)
  153. - Arbok (15%)
  154. - Pidgeot (25%)
  155.  
  156. TOTAL: 1 - [0.85 * 0.94 * 0.94 * 0.914 * 0.95 * 0.85 * 0.75] = ~58% chance of dying.
  157.  
  158. Arbok (80/512): Leer, Poison Sting, Bite, Glare.
  159. - Bite:
  160. > Normal: 13-16 (Rolls: 13x7, 14x16, 15x15, 16x1).
  161. > Crit: 27-32 (Rolls: 27x7, 28x8, 29x8, 30x8, 31x7, 32x1).
  162. - Poison Sting:
  163. > Normal: 1 (Rolls: 1x39).
  164. > Crit: 2-3 (Rolls: 2x38, 3x1).
  165.  
  166. Pidgeot (90/512): Sand-Attack, Quick Attack, Whirlwind, Wing Attack.
  167. - Wing Attack:
  168. > Normal: 13-16 (Rolls: 13x7, 14x16, 15x15, 16x1).
  169. > Crit: 28-33 (Rolls: 28x8, 29x7, 30x8, 31x8, 32x7, 33x1).
  170. - +0 Quick Attack:
  171. > Normal: 15-18 (Rolls: 15x10, 16x14, 17x14, 18x1).
  172. > Crit: 31-37 (Rolls: 31x4, 32x7, 33x7, 34x7, 35x7, 36x6, 37x1).
  173. - +1 Quick Attack:
  174. > Normal: 13-16 (Rolls: 13x7, 14x16, 15x15, 16x1).
  175. > Crit: 31-37 (Rolls: 31x4, 32x7, 33x7, 34x7, 35x7, 36x6, 37x1).
  176.  
  177. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  178.  
  179. RED BAR
  180.  
  181. Red bar = ((Current HP * 48 / Max HP) < 10)
  182.  
  183. Level Max HP HP Gained Threshold
  184. 30 100 -- 20HP
  185. 31 103 +3 21HP
  186. 32 106 +3 22HP
  187. 33 110 +4 22HP
  188. 34 113 +3 23HP
  189. 35 116 +3 24HP
  190. 36 119 +3 24HP
  191. 37 123 +4 25HP
  192. 38 126 +3 26HP
  193. 39 129 +3 26HP
  194. 40 132 +3 27HP
  195.  
  196. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  197.  
  198. LEVEL UPS
  199.  
  200. Level up Comparison:
  201. - Heal Pad Skip: 4 bad level ups.
  202. - With Heal Pad: 2 bad level ups.
  203.  
  204. HEAL PAD SKIP
  205. L33 after final Gastly. (bad level up)
  206. L34 after Drowzee. (bad level up)
  207. L35 after Pidgeot.
  208. L36 after Alakazam.
  209. L37 after Marowak. (bad level up)
  210. L38 after Rhyhorn.
  211. L39 after 1st juggler final Drowzee. (bad level up)
  212. L40 after Muk.
  213. TOTAL: 4 bad level ups
  214.  
  215. WITH HEAL PAD
  216. L33 after 1st Zubat.
  217. L34 after Raticate.
  218. L35 after Gyarados.
  219. L36 after Alakazam.
  220. L37 after Marowak. (bad level up)
  221. L38 after Nidoqueen. (bad level up)
  222. L39 after 2nd juggler Drowzee.
  223. L40 after 2nd Koffing.
  224. TOTAL: 2 bad level ups
  225.  
  226. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  227.  
  228. MONEY (3 balls, 8 potions, 3 repels, sell nugget = 23931)
  229.  
  230. X SPEEDS: 6
  231. X SPECIALS: 4
  232. X ACCURACYS: 10
  233. X item cost: 13000
  234.  
  235. -13000 -> 10931
  236. -500 -> 10431
  237. -1000 -> 9431
  238. -2000 -> 7431
  239. -5000 -> 2431
  240. -2100 -> 331, or 31 if sold bide (11 X Accuracy, 4 X Special, 7 X Speed).
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