Exarion

FM: Odds of second BEUD (and similar situations)

May 1st, 2021 (edited)
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  1. NOTE: Numbers are not exact. It's essentially impossible to calculate exact numbers, since rerolls are a thing.*
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  3. If this duelist plays.... Then their odds of playing this monster next are...
  4. Seto 3 -- BEUD BEUD -- 37%
  5. Nitemare -- BEUD BEUD -- 16%
  6. Kepura -- GG GG -- 24%
  7. Anubisius -- PUGM PUGM -- 19%
  8. Atenza -- B. Skull B. Skull -- 13%
  9. Seto 3 -- BEUD + GG 3500+ ATK -- 59% (odds of quick kill: 36%)
  10. Seto 3 -- BEUD + MBD 3500+ ATK -- 25% (odds of quick kill: 16%)
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  12. TO DO: Third/fourth monsters, weaker monsters
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  14. *As I understand it, rerolls happen when a 4th copy of a card is chosen for a duelist's deck during the deck generation process. Since only 3 copies are allowed, the game tries again, thus giving all other cards another chance of making the deck.
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  16. Example: Blue-Eyes White Dragon has a 120/2048 chance per card of being chosen for Seto 3's deck. The game needs to choose 40 cards for the deck. On cards #1, #15, and #28, Blue-Eyes White Dragon is chosen. Then on card #35, Blue-Eyes White Dragon is chosen again. Since this would be the 4th copy of the card, the game generates another card #35.
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  18. -----
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  20. Manual trials (Seto 3): 9/25 (36%; includes delayed plays)
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