MM5 Wily Capsule Probability

Wily Capsule Probability Map: https://i.imgur.com/WHi0Lpn.png
The green zone is spawns you can hit with a buffered double charge buster for 6 damage without using Gravity Hold to see where he is.
Here are the odds you'll get spawns in the green zone 4 out of (X) times:

5 out of 5: 0.6%
4 out of 5: 5.9%
4 out of 6: 12.9%
4 out of 7: 21.7%
4 out of 8: 31.5%
4 out of 9: 41.6%
4 out of 10: 51.3%
4 out of 11: 60.2%
4 out of 12: 67.9%
4 out of 13: 74.6%
4 out of 14: 80.9%
4 out of 15: 84.7%

5 out of 5 is ideal but very unlikely. 4 out of 5 still completes the fight in the optimal number of cycles while only losing about 1-5 seconds. At 10 cycles (with no menuing off of buster) the Beatless route begins losing time against the Beat route. At 14 cycles, you might as well have used Gyro Attack for the entire fight.

Wily Capsule probability function:
sum (0.36)^(N-i) * (0.64)^(i) * binom(N,i) of i=0 to i=N-4
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Replace N with number of total capsule spawns
WolframAlpha.com