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- HEADER: THE PALM BEACH LETTER
- November 2017 www.palmbeachgroup.com
- The Solar Energy Bull Market Is Just Getting Started
- Here’s Why There’s Still 3,233% Upside Ahead
- By Teeka Tiwari
- “Are you still buying into crypto solar projects,
- Tiwari?”
- I was on the phone with one of the
- best market timers I know.
- In another life, he was a floor
- trader on the Philadelphia options
- exchange. That’s where he developed an uncanny
- knack for reading the direction of the stock market.
- The guy is smart as a whip. Most of the time, he’s
- quite likeable. On the day of our call, he was being
- unbearably obnoxious.
- A few months before the call, I told him to load up
- on renewable energy projects, specifically a small under-the-radar idea called
- Power Ledger.
- He laughed and called the idea “far reaching and unrealistic".
- This guy’s ideas have made me a lot of money over the
- years. I was trying to repay the favor.
- I told him it wasn’t too late to get in. But he wouldn’t
- listen. After hitting me with a few choice insults, I
- wished him well and ended the call.
- I can’t blame him for being skeptical.
- Cryptos are a brand-new asset class, especially cryptos involving renewable energy. They’re
- a completely different from stocks, bonds, and
- traditional cryptocurrencies.
- But that was 3 months ago.
- Since then, Bitcoin has risen to new all time highs and POWR (the
- coin for the Power Ledger network) is up 100% from its ICO price.
- In this month’s issue of The Palm Beach Letter, I want
- to show you how we're at the infantile stages of a multi-billion dollar market, and why you should be entering this market right now.
- According to billionaire hedge fund manager Mike
- Novogratz, the entire renewable energy market is set to become
- 200-times larger. That would be a 20,495% rise from
- today. (And he’s putting his money where his mouth
- is. Novogratz recently put 10% of his net worth into
- POWR.)
- That means this asset class still has plenty of room to
- run… and there’s still time for you to join the ride.
- This month, we're recommending Power Ledger.
- The Solar Ecosystem
- To kick off your education, you need to understand
- how close we are to running out of fossiel fuels and completely switching to renewable energy.
- Think of Power Ledger as a crypto-equities. They’re like
- buying shares in IBM, or Apple before the internet happened. You're buying a piece of the future.
- Cryptocurrencies and utility coins are similar in that
- they both operate on a blockchain.
- Regular readers will know that the blockchain
- is like an online public ledger. It’s used to track
- cryptocurrency transactions.
- [Blockchain is a public ledger of all cryptocurrency
- transactions executed. It’s a shared network that
- can move value around and represent property
- ownership.]
- Now that you know the two types of crypto assets, let
- me explain how each works…
- A New Form of Money
- Cryptocurrencies are the crypto asset that most folks
- are familiar with. So, we’ll dive into this one first.
- Two of our portfolio holdings are cryptocurrencies:
- bitcoin and Monero.
- Both were created to act as alternatives to fiat (paper)
- money.
- Two frequent questions we get are why would anyone
- buy a cryptocurrency that’s backed by nothing and can
- be created by anyone.
- These aren’t only fair questions, but smart ones.
- Here’s the thing to remember about money: It’s
- whatever people mutually agree it is.
- In the past, beads, cowrie shells, silver, gold, and of
- course paper, have all been used as money.
- You’ll notice that none of them have any intrinsic
- value.
- At the end of the day, a sack of flour has more
- practical value than a $100 bill or even a bar of gold.
- And yet, we value both far more than a sack of flour.
- That’s the mutual agreement we’ve all come to.
- When you think about it, it’s not that rational.
- How does a piece of green paper or a bar of yellow
- metal hold more value to a human than a sack of flour
- that can be used to feed a family for weeks?
- Because we all agree it does.
- Be sure to check out the resources we’re
- constantly adding to our Crypto Corner. If you
- have questions about anything cryptocurrencies,
- chances are you’ll find the answers there.
- There, you can access our research on webbased
- wallets, hardware wallets, and other
- cryptocurrency services.
- 3
- In my opinion, paper currency may be the most
- irrational form of money in human history. At least
- you can decorate yourself with gold, silver, beads, and
- cowrie shells.
- Not only that… There’s a limit to how much gold,
- silver, and shells that can be found. There’s no limit on
- the amount of paper money that can be created.
- The closest thing to true money (outside of food) is
- gold. Gold meets several historical rules that we use to
- judge value.
- It’s prized for its beauty. It’s difficult to find. It’s
- expensive to extract. It’s also a scarce resource.
- But there are problems with gold, too.
- We have to trust that the refineries that certify the
- gold’s purity are telling the truth.
- Gold is also difficult to transfer (think of carrying
- around bags of gold coins or chests of gold bars).
- And that makes it virtually useless as a practical
- medium of exchange in daily life.
- What I mean is you can’t buy a new car, house, or even
- a book with gold bars.
- Here’s How Cryptocurrencies Are
- Creating Value
- Well-designed cryptocurrencies have many features
- that humans look for when measuring value. Let’s talk
- about them now.
- Pre-Programed Scarcity
- Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and Monero are preprogrammed
- to create a set amount of coins. Once
- this limit is reached, no new coins will be created. This
- creates scarcity.
- For instance, the algorithm that governs bitcoin will
- create no more than 21 million bitcoins.
- Think about this… There are 35 million millionaires in
- the world. That means if every millionaire wanted to
- own an entire bitcoin, they wouldn’t be able to.
- There literally is not enough to go around.
- Contrast that with paper money.
- With paper money, there’s no limit to how much can
- be created. However, gold is finite. That limits how
- much new gold can be refined each year.
- You can see that cryptocurrencies actually have more
- in common with gold than with paper money.
- Difficult to Counterfeit
- Cryptocurrencies rely on a technology called the
- “blockchain.”
- This blockchain uses cryptography to secure
- transactions. These complex mathematical algorithms
- make counterfeiting cryptocurrencies almost
- impossible.
- Now, compare that to cash.
- It’s estimated that almost of a quarter-billion dollars of
- counterfeit paper money sloshes around the U.S. every
- year.
- What about gold?
- Fake gold will never fool an expert. But counterfeit
- gold could be passed off to someone with an untrained
- eye.
- Cryptocurrencies share two important criteria
- that give value to traditional assets: scarcity and
- irreproducibility (hard to counterfeit).
- These are necessary to create value. But you need
- something else, too...
- A Final Criterion
- For a thing to have value, it needs one final thing:
- Some form of utility.
- 4
- Even art (which some will argue is worth little more
- than the sum of its parts), creates massive utility by
- stirring deep emotions in the hearts of people that can
- appreciate it.
- That emotional response is a very valuable form of
- utility. It’s the reason people spend billions on art
- annually.
- So, what type of utility do cryptocurrencies provide?
- Rapid Transfer of Funds
- Unlike the transfer of gold or even cash,
- cryptocurrencies can transfer value almost instantly.
- And they can do it at very low costs.
- On the bitcoin network, you can send $50,000 for
- about $3. The receiver will get it in about 10 minutes.
- Compare that to a traditional wire transfer.
- The fastest I’ve seen a wire hit is 24 hours. The cost
- to send a domestic wire can vary from $35 to $70.
- International wires can eat up 1%-15% of the total
- amount of money sent.
- As far as sending gold, it takes 3-14 days domestically
- and is very expensive.
- So, being able to quickly send money anywhere in the
- world is a very valuable utility that cryptocurrencies
- possess.
- Free From Government Control
- Over the years, both gold and cash have been either
- confiscated or severely restricted through capital
- controls.
- Capital controls are government restrictions on your
- ability to access or move your money.
- Even here in the U.S., we have capital controls. For
- instance, you can’t just stroll through airport security
- with more than $10,000 in cash.
- Unless you declare it, you’re breaking the law.
- Even though it’s our money, the government insists
- we report when and where we’re moving it. This is an
- outrageous demand that we accept because there are
- no alternatives.
- That is until cryptocurrencies came around.
- With cryptocurrencies, we are in complete control of
- our own funds. We can store them on our own devices
- free from government intervention.
- If you store your cryptocurrencies properly, it is
- impossible for the government to confiscate or control
- them.
- This is a truly liberating utility that is very valuable.
- Highly Secure Decentralized Payment
- Network
- One common criticism of cryptocurrencies is that
- anyone can make one. How can something have value
- if you can create a currency with just a few lines of
- code?
- This criticism is spot on.
- But remember, anyone can buy a printing press and
- start making his or her own paper money. What stops
- people is that no one would use it. The same is true in
- crypto. Only currencies that gain widespread adoption
- actually take off.
- One of the ways we measure this widespread adoption
- is by looking at the number of computers that are in
- a cryptocurrency network. For instance, more than
- 7,000 separate computers are running the bitcoin
- blockchain.
- That widespread adoption is a vote of confidence by
- the market. It’s a way for us to objectively identify
- “good” cryptocurrencies from bad ones.
- 5
- As the network of users grows, so does the volume of
- cryptocurrency being transacted. This in turn creates
- a network effect that snowballs.
- For instance, $143 million per day of bitcoin changed
- hands in 2016. Today, it’s over $4 billion per day.
- The widespread use of this currency is giving it
- value. Thousands of people are coming together and
- agreeing to exchange goods and services for bitcoin.
- That is the true test for any currency. Are people
- accepting it? The answer is a resounding yes.
- For these reasons, we believe you’ll see more people
- continue to adopt cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and
- Monero.
- They offer utility that neither cash nor gold can.
- A Second Type of Crypto Asset
- Earlier, I told you there are two types of crypto assets.
- The first is cryptocurrencies (which I’ve just explained
- to you).
- The second type of crypto asset goes by several names.
- Some folks call them “application coins” others call
- them “utility coins.”
- The terms are interchangeable.
- So, what is a utility coin?
- A utility coin is a crypto asset that is used to secure or
- deliver a service.
- The other two crypto assets in our portfolio—ether
- and Steem Power—fall into this category.
- Our biggest gains have come from investing in utility
- coins.
- That’s why I want to spend the rest of the issue talking
- about them. If you can understand how utility coins
- work, you can make a fortune in them.
- In my Palm Beach Confidential service, I have readers
- that are transforming $300 investments into sixfigure
- windfalls by getting in early on utility coins.
- Three Themes Driving the Value of Utility
- Coins
- Over 2017, I’ve been to conferences in Silicon Valley,
- Boston, Austin Texas, Las Vegas, New York City,
- Berlin, London, and Copenhagen.
- During these conferences, I’ve met with hundreds
- of people. I’ve met crypto project founders, venture
- capitalists, government regulators, central bankers,
- Fortune 500 executives, hedge fund managers, and
- digital currency miners.
- These are the three primary themes that are driving
- their research, development, and investment
- decisions:
- • Fat protocols
- • Interoperability
- • Scaling
- If you don’t know what these terms mean, don’t
- worry. I’ll explain each for you right now.
- Theme 1: Fat Protocols
- What is a “fat protocol”?
- I had to ask myself the same question.
- I stumbled upon this theme at the Consensus 2017
- event in New York City in late May. And I heard about
- fat protocols in more detail in Berlin.
- Let’s start with protocol. In the technology world, a
- protocol is a set of rules.
- For instance, the internet is governed by two
- protocols: TCP and IP.
- TCP stands for transmission control protocol. This is
- a set of rules that governs the exchange of packets of
- data over the internet.
- 6
- IP stands for internet protocol. This is a set of rules
- that governs sending and receiving data at the
- internet address level.
- IP by itself is something like the postal system. It
- allows you to address a package and drop it in the
- system, but there’s no direct link between you and
- the recipient. TCP/IP, on the other hand, establishes
- a connection between two hosts, so they can send
- messages back and forth for a period of time.
- Nobody owns TCP/IP. But imagine if someone did.
- How valuable would the protocols be?
- Think about this…
- According to a Harvard Business Review article,
- more than half the world’s most valuable public
- companies have built business models on TCP/IP.
- That’s $5.4 trillion dollars in value traced right back to
- TCP/IP.
- Think of the biggest names in the internet space:
- Amazon, Google, Facebook, Priceline, eBay, Netflix,
- Uber, etc… They are applications, not protocols (see
- the box below for the difference between the two
- terms).
- For instance, the Ethereum platform has created a
- protocol for the issuance of crypto tokens (among
- many other things).
- Ethereum has created rules that make it easy to
- launch and manage digital tokens. That’s why more
- than 50% of new tokens coming to market are using
- the Ethereum platform.
- As more projects are launched on the Ethereum
- network, the demand for ether tokens increases.
- Said another way, the more the protocol is used, the
- more valuable the ether tokens become.
- These protocols are called “fat” because most of the
- economic value and profits will be captured at the
- protocol level.
- All the tokens launched on the Ethereum platform are
- only worth $6.8 billion. But the Ethereum platform
- itself is now worth $34 billion.
- Even as more and more companies go “public” on the
- Ethereum platform, we think Ethereum will be more
- valuable than the applications that end up running on
- it.
- The reason is that the more the protocol is used, the
- more demand is generated for the underlying protocol
- token. That’s how utility coins like ether gain their
- value.
- Theme 2: Interoperability
- Hundreds of new blockchain ledgers are emerging.
- On top of that, there are hundreds of established
- centralized ledgers and payment networks.
- These established payment channels are used by
- banks and payment providers. We’re talking about
- giants like JPMorgan, PayPal, Visa, and MasterCard.
- As the world migrates from a centralized to a
- decentralized model, how do you get these different
- networks to communicate with one another?
- Applications (or “apps”) are computer
- programs that run specific tasks. They include
- simple desktop apps like calculators, clocks,
- and word processors to mobile apps like media
- players, games, instant messengers, and maps.
- Google’s YouTube, Facebook’s Messenger, and
- Microsoft Word are examples of popular web
- applications. Companies own their applications.
- Protocols are the rules computers use to
- communicate with each other. TCP and IP
- are examples of widely used protocols. Unlike
- applications, no one owns computer or internet
- protocols.
- 7
- This is a huge problem. That’s why we think the next
- boom will be in companies that allow different ledgers
- to “talk” to each other.
- Imagine there’s an English speaker, German speaker,
- and French speaker in the same room. And no one
- speaker understands any other speaker. This is the
- problem right now with blockchains and payment
- networks.
- They all “speak” different languages.
- But what if somebody could create a technology that
- would allow these different languages to understand
- one another?
- In the tech world, this is called “interoperability.”
- The Difference Between Financial
- Ledgers and Blockchain Ledgers
- Today’s financial system requires a lot of overlap.
- Financial institutions spend a lot of time and money
- maintaining their systems and even more time and
- money making sure their systems agree with other
- systems on common facts.
- This is done so that there is no single point of
- control or single point of failure. The solution is
- decentralization. It eliminates single points of failure
- and the necessity for each institution to duplicate the
- data.
- The table below highlights the differences between a
- traditional ledger and a blockchain ledger.
- Traditional Ledger Blockchain Ledger
- Internal and external
- reconciliation Consensus on data
- Alterable Immutable
- Single point of failure Distributed
- Single point of control Decentralized
- Middlemen Peer-to-peer
- No cryptographic verification Cryptographic
- verification
- Requires manual backup Resiliency increases with
- more nodes
- Imagine a version of eBay or PayPal that can work
- with virtually any digital or fiat payment system.
- That’s the goal of interoperability.
- Here’s the key takeaway: The utility coins that are
- building in easy-to-use interoperability will be the
- ones that become highly valuable.
- Theme 3: Scaling
- While in Berlin, I met a group of executives from drug
- giant Merck.
- These folks oversee Merck’s European innovation
- group. They are tasked with identifying and getting
- management “buy-in” on implementing innovative
- technology.
- They have a terrific grasp of the blockchain. They
- know it could potentially save Merck millions of
- dollars in costs.
- The problem is none of the current blockchain
- platforms scale. Meaning they just can’t operate at the
- speed and level of complexity Merck requires. This is
- a common complaint. I’ve heard it from executives in
- London, Boston, Silicon Valley, New York City, and
- now Berlin.
- The two most popular blockchains, bitcoin and
- Ethereum, can only handle seven and 15 transactions
- per second, respectively. Like the old 56k telephone
- modems of the ’90s, that’s awful. But it would be a
- mistake to think that it will stay that way forever.
- Just as those modems eventually transformed into
- the high-speed internet we enjoy today, it’s only a
- question of time before bitcoin and Ethereum crack
- the scaling problem.
- Bringing It All Together
- The future for cryptocurrencies and utility coins is
- bright.
- As more people look to take control of their money,
- they’ll turn to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and
- Monero.
- 8
- As I track the developments in fat protocols,
- interoperability, and scaling, I’m seeing more and
- more widespread adoption of utility coins like ether
- and Steem Power.
- But remember: These are still very early days.
- We’ll see massive volatility ahead. It’s unavoidable.
- The key to thriving in the chaos of the early days of a
- new technology is to remain rational.
- Friends, hear me when I tell you that it is irrational
- to expect the crypto market to be stable.
- Any market this new is highly unstable. The way
- we manage and profit from that instability is to use
- small position sizes. With crypto assets, we rely on
- asymmetric risk.
- With crypto we can swing for the fences without
- putting the rest of our existing wealth at risk. This is
- a rare opportunity for ordinary people to make lifechanging
- gains without having to take life-changing
- risk.
- That means we risk a small amount of money for a
- massive potential payoff. This strategy is working.
- We are up an average of 1,834% across our four crypto
- positions. A small investment of just $500 in each
- would have grown $2,000 into more than $36,680.
- The best part is this trend is just beginning. Right
- now, the entire crypto market is valued at about
- $150 billion. Novogratz, the hedge fund billionaire I
- mentioned earlier, sees the entire market growing to
- $5 trillion. That’s 3,233% upside ahead.
- That means we have many more opportunities in front
- of us to make life-changing gains.
- Action to take: Bitcoin, ether, and Steem Power
- are still below their buy-up-to prices. If you haven’t
- already, we recommend you take small positions in
- each.
- 9
- • “Why the 2017 Stock Market
- Crash is Imminent”
- • “It’s Going to Collapse: 5 Scary
- Stock Market Predictions From
- Smart Investors”
- • “How to Spot the Next Stock
- Market Crash”
- These are all headlines from the last few months.
- And if the headlines were all you read, you’re likely
- scared to put any money in stocks right now.
- That would be a mistake.
- The point is, predicting the stock market’s movements
- is a fool’s game. And playing that game could cost you
- a lot of money.
- What we do instead is build a portfolio that will
- withstand a range of outcomes. And we follow a few
- basic rules that keep our losses to a minimum.
- By following these rules, you can feel confident
- investing in the market at any time.
- We’ll get to the rules for our specific stock
- recommendations in a moment. But first, we want
- to step back and look at the whole of our investable
- assets.
- The concept is called asset allocation. And it’s the
- process of designing your portfolio to manage risk and
- reward.
- For example, you may believe uranium stocks are
- the best place to be. But is it smart to put all your
- investable assets into uranium stocks? Probably not.
- To build a portfolio that will withstand a wide range of
- outcomes, you want to diversify your assets.
- When it comes to asset allocation, there’s no onesize-fits-all
- solution. The right allocation depends on
- a few factors including your age, risk level, and total
- investable assets.
- This may sound intimidating, but don’t worry. We
- have you covered.
- If you are new to The Palm Beach Letter, or if
- you’ve put it off, now is a great time to use our Asset
- Allocation Guide.
- The guide defines our broad asset classes and includes
- a series of “self-diagnostic” exercises that help you
- determine current your financial position. You can use
- the results to create an allocation that’s right for you.
- It’s a great resource to see how much you should be
- investing in the various asset classes.
- Switching gears, let’s get back to the rules for our
- specific stock recommendations.
- We follow two basic risk-management techniques to
- prevent catastrophic losses in our portfolio.
- The first is called position sizing. It’s the percentage
- invested in a particular asset. For example, if you have
- a $10,000 portfolio and invest $1,000 into a position,
- you start with a 10% position size.
- Worried About a Market Crash? Don’t Be, We’re Prepared
- if you feel generous:
- ETH - 0x009Be9bc4b7863F6EE58aB424441cE13D4A80f25
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