11/17-11/10/22 Ukrainian General Update LanguageLearner

11/17-11/20/22 Update, day 267-270 of Russian invasion.


Belarus:

Belarus continues to send large quantities of ammo and supplies to Russia via train. Reportedly the trains arrive empty, load up, and depart for russia.

There are increased statements about RU troops in Belarus, which number approximately 5-10k. At this point, given the reluctance of Belarusian forces, the defenses set up by UA troops on the border, and the transfer of large quantities of ammo/equipment to Russia from Belarus, i do not foresee an imminent threat of land attack from Belarus.

Personally, given the fact that strikes into Belarus would certainly destabilize the Lukashenko regime, and that such strikes would invariably occur if RU attempted a push towards the border, I find it unlikely that RU would committ to such a significant thrust with minimal upside and potentially severe downside.

There are reports of RU SOF groups being prepared in this area. Belarus also stated they detained a UA soldier who crossed the border.


Kyiv/ Central Ukraine

RU continued to launch missile strikes against UA cities these past several days, targeting heating and energy infrastructure. Strikes were recorded S of Lviv, in Kyiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhia, and Odesa. Approximately 50% of Ukraines energy infrastructure is currently damaged, as the government has urged those citizens who are currently not in Ukraine, to delay their return if possible so as not to stress the energy grids.

Per the BBC, it was stated in an interview with DTEK (UA energy administration) CEO Maksim Timchenko, that if "People can find an alternative place of residence for 3-4 months, it would be useful in reducing the load on the system". DTEK later clarified they did not request people go abroad, but that lowering consumption of electricity will help provide a guaranteed supply for hospitals which are treating wounded soldiers.

There will continue to be scheduled power outages around the clock in all regions of Ukraine. Currently, the UA government is experiencing a shortage of replacement components and parts for damaged systems. They are trying to source additional ones from western allies.

Despite claims of UA exporting energy to Europe at the cost of their own people, a narrative floating around recently to cause dissent, UA suspended energy exports on October 11th after the massive missile attacks.

Per the UA government, while the next several weeks will be challenging in terms of restoring electricity and heating, there is currently no imminent risk of uncontrolled blackouts. Should such an event become likely, there will be 12-24 hours advance notice for people in major cities such as Kyiv. The RU strikes with over 100 missiles (and a roughly 85% intercept rate by UA) were each individually intended to cause mass uncontrolled blackouts.

As a result of the war, at least 5 million Ukrainians have lost their job, and 7 million have left the country. There is currently a "recovery army" social works group which has employed some 1000 people in terms of such activities as collecting/distributing humanitarian aid, landfill work, restoration, shelter construction, etc.

The Minister of defense of New Zealand, as well as the British PM Rishi Sunak, both visited Kyiv. Both promised continuation of UK training of UA troops abroad, as well as the UK additionally supplying more air defenses.

Russia has  fired more than 4,700 missiles during 270 days of full-scale war, Per zelensky.


Sumy/Chernihiv/Kharkiv

Numerous RU strikes continue across the border, with no indication of RU ground movement. There were a few scattered UA fire missions into Russia.

RU missile strikes on Kharkiv knocked out power again.

UA forces NE of Sumy reportedly launched a drone attack against RU forces along the border near Sudzha, Russia. Gunfire and explosions were reported.


Kupyansk/Svatove/Kreminna:

UA forces have been heavily shelling RU forces along the highway here, and appear to have made some gains towards Chervonopopivka and Ploschanka, where RU artillery fire has increasingly pulled back towards RU lines.

Given UA shelling around Kreminna and Svatove, the presence of UA troops physically controlling the P-66 highway between these cities would likely be very destabilizing to the overall RU defense here.

UA and RU forces continue to heavily fight around Kuzemivka to the NW of Svatove, and RU forces appear to be reliant moreso on artillery then troops to blunt UA advances here.

It appears UA forces have managed to physically extend their control of the Kupyansk-Svatove highway towards the N, with UA gains around the former RU strongpoint of Kyslivka and towards the currently highly contested RU strongpoint of Kuzemivka.

The RU morale here is incredibly low, with several hundred mobilized men being held in basement prisons for refusal to serve.

There is reportedly an increase in RU troops in this area, many redeployed from Kherson.


Siversk/Lysychansk:

There is no notable change from this direction, with artillery fire ongoing along the front to the NE,E, and SE of Siversk's frontlines.


Bakhmut:

There has continued to be heavy shelling around Bakhmut city, with artillery positions remaining fairly consistent.

RU artillery has increasingly ranged towards the Soledar-Bakhmut highway, as well as the W approach into bakhmut, with intent to apparently cut off supplies here.

RU shelling has increasingly targeted the W approach into Bakhmut city, likely to impede supply lines. We are also seeing increased RU artillery striking W from the highway which leads into Bakhmut from the south, as another attempt to partially circumvent the city.

Per a UA soldier in this area, it seems as though the most recent RU tempo of attacks has reduced. However, there has been recorded footage of RU TOS-1 strikes in this area, heavy thermobaric weaponry designed principally for urban combat. The limited range of these systems indicates that RU feels more comfortable within 10km or so of Bakhmut.


Avdiivka:

RU forces have apparently made gains around the Avdiivka area, pushing futher into the SW direction from Optyne and making gains towards Vodyane and past Pisky.

While UA forces control the N bank of the river in Vodyane, should RU forces manage to successfully cross and move troops in force, it would allow for access to roads which could then threaten supply movement into W Avdiivka. Otherwise, RU shelling is incredibly heavy here and their movement towards Avdiivka directly on the ground appears no more successful than it has been over the last several months.


Donestk/Occupied E:

There continue to be mobilization efforts taken by RU forces across the occupied territories, and UA deep strikes target supply lines and RU bases deep into the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

RU continues to swap out DPR/LPR proxy officials for Russian de facto officials.


Zaporizhia/Southern Axis/ Mariupol :

RU and UA shelling continues across the front line, with considerable focus around the Pavlivka/Vuhledar area.

In this area, it appears that RU gains have been somewhat reversed by UA artillery, as both artillery and drones have been used, but UA possesses a higher ground advantage across the river.

There were numerous RU and UA duelling strikes across the Dnipro river near Enerhodar, with UA shelling around the city proper and some speculated RU shelling targeting power lines near the ZNPP, damaging its ability to provide energy.

There continues to be reports of considerable intimidation of UA staff at the ZNPP.

Multiple explosions have occurred in the occupied territories from unknown causes, be they partisans or MLRS strikes.

In Mariupol, a new wave of raids are being planned to suppress dissent of remaining citizens. This comes after RU promises to provide heating and infrastructure were not met, and people complained via a petition on telegram. These people are now being investigated by the RU occupation authorities here.


Kherson Oblast:

There continues to be duelling RU and UA strikes across the Dnipro, as UA works to get energy infrastructure up and running broadly in Kherson oblast. The first trains have begun to arrive in Kherson city from Kyiv to much fanfare.

RU shelling has predominantly focused on Kherson city, Chornobaika, and the area immediately across from Nova Kahkovka. UA shelling has focused on Nova Kahkovka, suspected RU positions E across from Mylove, as well as deep strikes on RU positions with long range rocketry as far south as Chaplynka.

On the Kinburn split, UA artillery continues to strike along the peninsula as RU forces have fired a large barrage of S-300 missiles into the Ochakiv area across the bay. At this point, it appears that claims of UA forces holding territory on the peninsula are premature.


Odessa/Black Sea/Crimea(10):

Only 1 rail line remains usable on the Crimean bridge, now not due to be repaired until at least summer of 2023. RU continues to build defensive lines in Crimea.

There is currently stormy weather in the Black sea, and the RU grouping of ships there will be somewhat depleted


General:

Over the last 24 hours, Ukrainian forces eliminated:

330 x soldiers (Total 84,210)
1 x tanks
2 x APC
1 x Artillery (0x MLRS)
3 x vehicles
1 x Air defense system
1 x UAV

The Turkish Baykar Bayraktar Kızılelma, a low-observation jet powered drone designed with a Ukrainian engine, is being tested currently. Anticipated to be introduced sometime in 2023, this drone is designed for a 1500 kg capacity, a speed of 900 km/hr, and a range of 900 km at a height of 10km. While far off from production, such a drone would drastically change the balance of air power in the Russo-Ukrainian war were it introduced.

A video came out over the last several days showing UA forces taking custody of surrendering RU troops, before another RU soldier comes around a corner shooting. Later drone footage indicates that the RU soldiers were all killed, and RU has claimed this as a policy of deliberate execution by UA forces. This is unlikely, given other footage of surrenders, and it unfortunately seems more likely that the one RU soldiers shooting at close range of UA troops led to an exchange of fire which killed the other RU soldiers. We have seen this before, when an RU soldier tried to disguise throwing a grenade while surrendering. There are reports a number of UA POW's were summarily executed once this video started making the rounds on RU TG channels.

RU likely wishes to push the narrative of UA executions to prevent their own soldiers from surrendering, as well as for political pressure abroad to muddy the situation.

There have been several fires in Russia lately, including a fire near railways which killed some 6 people in Moscow and a gas pipeline explosion in St. petersburg.

Ukraine has requested some 200 tanks, 70 long range MLRS, and 100 artillery systems from western partners.

Per the UA government, the war will certainly not end this year, but is hoped to end next year by Summer.

The Pentagon has stated that part of RU goals with these massive missile strikes is to exhaust UA air defenses so as to increase the possibility of RU air dominance.

Per the UK government, Russia has called for some 14 billion USD in loans for military purposes, indicating a worsening economic situation.